Fulham - Newcastle

What a great way to start a Saturday!  (Proper) Football with Fulham at 10:00 followed by The Ohio State University (American) football.

This is Martin Jol's 101st match as Manager of the Cottagers and so far he 36 wins and 25 draws against 39 losses.  If they were all league matches it would be 133 points/300, which is . . . not great.  It equates out to roughly a 50 point season in the EPL.   But where Jol has done better than expected is away from Craven Cottage.  52 of those 100 matches have been on the road, and he has 13 wins and 14 draws against 25 defeats.  Coming away with points more than 50% of the time is something Fulham fans have not been accustomed to.  As great as Roy was, one away win was what was expected and often seen.

Our trips to Newcastle under Jol have both been 1 goal losses.  In August 2011, Fulham looked impressive for large chunks of the match, only to fall behind 0-2 on Leon Best's brace.   Clint Dempsey's goal in the 88th minute narrowed the margin, but no equalizer was found.  Last April's match was particularly cruel as Papa Cisse found the net in the 3rd minute of stoppage time in an otherwise evenly matched affair.

Newcastle seems to be in greater disarray this fall with Manager Alan Pardew being the favorite to be the first manager sacked this season.  They have certainly failed to impress in two matches so far, being routed 0-4 at Man City, then playing to a scoreless draw at home to West Ham.  I think the Cottagers are much closer to West Ham than City, so I expect to see a similar result this Saturday.

I believe we will need a few more matches before all the kinks can be worked out among our returning players and our new signees.   I think Jol will need several matches to figure out which combination of midfielders will provide Fulham with the appropriate pace and attack.  Because of this, I fear our attack this Saturday will be lacking.  Fortunately, we will be playing the Magpies and not the Gunners who found space easily and often.   Our defense shut down Sunderland and should do the same to Newcastle.

Unfortunately, this leads to a 0-0 draw, but one point at St. James Park is better than none, and 4 points from 2 trips to the NE is even better.

Buffalo

And so it begins again . . .

Of course, you know by now that the Buckeyes have won 34 consecutive home openers with the last loss being . . . anyone? Anyone? Buehler?  Buehler?  Penn State in 1978 (Art Schlichter’s first game).  Ohio State has won those 34 by an average of 23 points.   Buffalo is up next and as you may know the Bulls are in the MAC.   Ohio State is 17-0 v. the MAC since 2000 and the Bulls are 1-5 v. the Big Ten with their only win coming just 113 years ago v. Penn State.   Yes, you read that correctly.   They beat PSU in 1900.  The Bulls have won a total of 9 games in the past 3 years, so naturally Ohio State will roll and cover the 35 points Vegas has set for the spread.

As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend.”

Last year, Buffalo went down to Georgia (then ranked No. 6) on the 2012 opening weekend and played with the Bulldogs, losing only 23-45 in a game much closer than the score indicated.  FYI – Georgia was a 38 point favorite.   In 2011, the Bulls went to Pitt, and although they were a 30.5 point underdog, Buffalo played the Panthers tough, eventually losing 16-35.   Two huge point spreads against major conference teams, and both times the Bulls not only covered, but made the games interesting.

Now imagine this scenario:  Braxton Miller looking to pass, and 2-time 1^st team MAC LB Khalil Mack (No. 46 in your program, with an NFL ready body of 6’3” 250), who by the way would have led the Buckeyes in sacks, comes streaking in unblocked and Braxton doesn’t see him.   The collision occurs and Braxton doesn’t get up.    I worry about that.   And if you think I’m overreacting, well, you are correct.   But, we had a lot of luck last year.   A lot of luck.   Everything resorts to the mean and I cannot help but think that some bad breaks may be coming.   Khalil Mack will be drafted in April and he’s a bad m---f---.   We need to be aware of him and not let him hit No. 5.

Buffalo can stay in games because they run, they run well, and they don’t abandon the run despite the score.   Senior Branden Oliver (32) missed 5 games last year and still had 820 yards.  He had 1,400 yards 2 years ago.  When Oliver was out, Devin Campbell (21) had 3 100 yard games.   And they are not piling up yards on the weak sisters of the MAC, as the Bulls put up 200 yards rushing v. Georgia.  Given the newness of our front 7, Buffalo’s rushing game could keep our high powered offense off the field and kill some clock.  Unsure of who will start at QB.  Senior Alex Zordich (15) likes to run and throw, but he missed the last 4 games.  Sophomore Joe Licata (16) came in and threw the ball very well, but does not run.  So,  two completely different styles.   When Buffalo throws, it goes to Senior Alex Neutz (19).  Neutz had almost 40% of Buffalo’s receptions in 2012 as he compiled eye-popping stats of 65 catches for 1,015 yards and 11 TDs. 

On defense – did I mention Khalil Mack already? – the Bulls have 7 returning starters (all juniors and seniors) and arguably the best LB and DB corps in the MAC.

Now, if this all sounds like doom and gloom, don’t worry.  Ohio State will win and win by double digits.  I mean, in the past 14 years as a Division I program, Buffalo has won a total of 39 games.   None of those wins are against a team from one of the major conferences, unless you give them credit for beating Rutgers in 2000 when Rutgers was not Rutgers yet.  My point is that the Bulls should not be underestimated.

That being said, I think the Buckeyes do win big and even cover the 35.  I think we have too much talent on offense and I think our defense will be able to focus on stopping the run.   And even Luke Fickell covered v. Akron is his first game as head coach.    I don’t see Buffalo getting more than 13, and I see our offense putting up at least 50.   So, take the Buckeyes and give the points, and bet the over (55.5):

Schaef says:  Ohio State 56, Buffalo 13.

FYI – Current forecast for Saturday in Columbus:  90 with a chance of a T-storm.   Hot and humid.  Buffalo will have 60 players, Buckeyes should dress 85.  Just sayin.