We are in unfamiliar waters here. As fans, we haven’t
had to deal with Championship Week. Fortunately, we have a coach that has
gone through this a few times in the SEC and knows the deal.
This is what I know about MSU – their defense is a
beast. No one can run on them. No one can pass on them. No
one can score on them. Their offense doesn’t need to do much when the
opposition is not scoring (indeed, MSU’s offense is 10th in B1G in
total yards and 11th in passing). And we all know
that defense wins championships. You can win a championship with an
ok offense, but you usually don’t win a championship with just an ok
defense. Even Urban’s Florida teams that are remembered for their
offense had much better defenses. And given how our defense can
make average offenses look great, prospects for this Saturday look bleak.
But they don’t play the game on paper.
MSU has not faced anyone like us this year. Indiana
had some offensive firepower, but by the time Sparty faced off against Nebraska
and Northwestern, those programs were injured and in shambles. The
non-conference schedule of Western Michigan, South Florida, Youngstown State,
and Notre Dame did not prepare MSU for a team that can spread the field, pound
the run, and have a QB that can scramble. Conversely, Ohio State has
faced someone similar to State. When the Buckeyes played Wisconsin
in September, the Badgers were 6th in rushing and total defense and
10th in scoring defense. The Buckeyes ran for
nearly 200 yards, passed for 200 more, and scored 31 points.
My concern going into this game was that MSU would stuff the
run, and when Braxton went back to pass he would be sacked. We would see
OSU in 2nd and long or 3rd and long. But I
learned that the Spartans are not really a defense that gets a lot of sacks or
TFL. Actually, the Buckeyes have better numbers. I glean from
this that Michigan State simply stones you at the line of scrimmage. I
imagine they rush only four and their DBs must do an admirable job of covering
the opposition’s receivers. Blitzing would/should result in more sacks
and TFL. I would expect a mobile QB to have a lot of runs against
MSU since his receivers are covered.
But I don’t see that. Indiana’s Tre Robinson
rushed 5 times v. MSU. Illinois’ Nathan Scheelhaase ran 6x. Northwestern
played passer Siemian much more than runner Colter against MSU and had 6 total
rushes. Nebraska’s Armstrong ran 6 times too. Why aren’t the QBs
running against Sparty? I think this is where the difference will come on
Saturday night. Braxton will run the ball 20x, as will Carlos
Hyde. MSU hasn’t seen this before and it will be a challenge.
Many of you may scoff at the historical numbers, but I find
them fascinating. In the last 35 games between these two teams (dating
back to the 1967 game), Michigan State has score less than 20 points 25 times.
That’s 71% of the games! Sure Ohio State had some really good
defenses in some of those years, but in other years (2004, 2011, e.g.) we
stunk. The maximum points the Buckeyes have given up to State is 28
(1998). Let me repeat for emphasis – in the last 35 matchups, MSU has
never scored 30 points on any Ohio State team. Meanwhile, MSU, which has
long been known for its strong defense (George Perles, Nick Saban, Mark
Dantonio), has surrendered 30+ points to the Buckeyes in 6 of the last
12. Coach Dantonio is 8-18 v. the Top 25 (1-1 this year) and 1-4 v.
Top 5 teams. Ohio State has a 9-2 advantage when both teams are ranked,
including two wins in East Lansing in the last 5 seasons.
I think the Buckeyes will get their defensive issues ironed
out so that MSU will once again score less than 30. I think the Buckeye
offense will present significant problems to the Spartans, and I look for
Braxton Miller to run a lot. We are indoors so there is no issue
with weather. And looking at this globally, I think an Ohio State win
will upset many of the talking heads on certain networks, so I think it
happens. I am giving the points (5.5) and I’m taking the over
(51.5).
Schaef says: Ohio State 38, Michigan State 22.
