The
141st run for the roses will once again feature a full field of 20
three-year-olds gunning for racing immortality.
However, this year’s version of the Kentucky Derby will feature two of
the best trainers in the business essentially going head-to-head.
Bob
Baffert, with his noticeable white hair and dark sunglasses, has been a Derby
fixture ever since he burst on the scene in 1996 when his Cavonnier lost a
photo finish to D. Wayne Lukas’ Grindstone.
At the time, Lukas was the king of thoroughbred trainers with Grindstone
giving him his third Derby and ninth Triple Crown victory. Baffert paid his dues in the much less
glamorous world of Quarter Horse racing during the 1980s and early 90s. Eighteen years younger than Lukas, he was seen
as the young upstart challenging Lukas’ dominance. Baffert quickly succeeded as witnessed by his
near Triple Crown misses with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, and War
Emblem in 2002. Since then, Baffert has
sent a number of high profile contenders to Louisville, including Pioneerof the
Nile, Lookin At Lucky, Bodemeister, and Chitu.
But it has been 13 years since he has won at Louisville and only one
other trainer, Carl Nofzger, won another Derby after such a long span (17
years).
This
year, Baffert has his best shot at returning to the Winner’s Circle with American Pharoah (intentionally spelled
this way and not “Pharaoh”), who is the early favorite to win. Pharoah is the son of Pioneerof the Nile, who
finished 2nd in the 2009 Derby to Mind That Bird, and he has been
extremely impressive in his path to the Derby.
He has won his last 4 races with relative ease, including an 8 length romp
in the Arkansas Derby three weeks ago.
Pharoah is not padding his record on weaker competition as those four
wins came in either Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes races. He appears to be sharp as his last two
workouts have earned a “bullet,” meaning he was the fastest horse to train at
that distance that day. Jockey Victor
Espinoza, who won last year’s Derby on California Chrome, will ride Pharoah on
Saturday, which only adds to this colt’s impressive statistics. In any other year, American Pharoah would be
the overwhelming favorite.
But
this is not an average year for the Derby, or for Baffert, as he will also
saddle the likely second choice, Dortmund. Named for the German football (soccer) team,
Dortmund is the son of 2008 Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown, and has put
together his own impressive resume.
Dortmund is unbeaten in six career starts, including the Santa Anita
Derby and one win at Churchill Downs last November. As the track is sometimes unfriendly to first-time
racers, Dortmund’s success over this course gives him an advantage. Jockey Martin Garcia will be aboard and he
won the 2010 Preakness with Baffert’s Lookin At Lucky.
But
this article is not about the two favorite horses, but rather two
trainers. The other is Todd Pletcher,
who was Lukas’ top assistant in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and helped
Lukas establish his lofty status.
Pletcher set out on his own while Baffert’s horses were dominating the
Triple Crown in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
But history tends to repeat itself, and Pletcher, thirteen years
younger, was threatening to knock off Baffert as thoroughbred racing’s top
trainer. Pletcher topped the purse money
winnings in 2004, 2005, and 2006. In
2007, Pletcher sent a record five horses to the Derby. He won four straight Eclipse Awards as top
trainer from 2004-2007. Yet, despite his
success with other races and other tracks, Pletcher did not win a Derby until
2010 with Street Sense. As with other
sports, to be considered truly “great,” you must win multiple times. Even though Pletcher has sent a number of
horses to the post since, including another five in 2013, he has not managed to
get that elusive second win. Known as “the
best in the business except for the first Saturday in May,” Pletcher wants to
and needs to improve on his 1 for 40 record.
This
year, Pletcher’s bringing four more colts to Louisville, but his top entrant is
Carpe Diem, winner of 4 of 5 career
starts. His only non-win was a second in
last fall’s Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Most
recently, Carpe Diem won the Blue Grass Stakes at nearby Keeneland and will be
ridden by 2011 Derby winner John Velasquez, who has been on Carpe Diem in all
of his starts. The only bad news for the
horse is that he drew the suboptimal post position number 2. He will likely have to use some of his speed
to avoid getting pinned on the rail by the eighteen other horses on his
right. He has also had some gate
problems, and he will be in the starting gate a long time while the other
horses load.
Pletcher
is also bringing Materiality, winner
of the prestigious Florida Derby. Materiality
is the son of 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner, Afleet Alex. He has won all three of his career starts, but
unlike every other horse entered, Materiality did not race at age 2. He will be trying to break one of the Derby’s
oldest jinxes as no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without racing
at 2. Jockey John Velasquez has ridden
Materiality for all of his starts, but since he is going to ride Carpe Diem,
Javier Castellano will get the call.
While Castellano has been in almost every Derby since 2005, his best
finishes are one fourth and a seventh.
To
be sure, some other horse and trainer may win, but it is much more likely that
one of these four will receive the blanket of roses on Saturday evening. If it is American Pharoah or Dortmund, it
will mark the return to the top for Bob Baffert with his fourth Derby win, and
it will end his 13 year drought. However,
if it is Carpe Diem or Materiality, it will be the elusive second Derby for
Todd Pletcher, and he can toss aside the unflattering nicknames and labels.
