Western Michigan

So what will happen on Saturday?  Let me bring in my spokesman to clarify what will happen.

Known Knowns – Hey.  The Silver Bullets are pretty good.  No. 5 in Total Defense.  No. 5 in passing yards allowed.  No. 4 in pass efficiency defense.   No. 11 in scoring defense.  And we have not allowed a rush of 20 yards or more – 1 of 4 teams to have that distinction.  We also know these people will be awesome.

Known Unknowns – How will this guy perform (especially on this diet?):

Cardale Jones ‏@CJ12_  Sep 16

Honestly, all I ate today was two chocolate chip cookies and five peanut butter cookies

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Will the slobs block?  Will Zeke get the 20-25 carries we all think he needs?  Will you be satisfied with this person as your sideline reporter for the game?

Unknown Unknowns – Well, I don’t know what I don’t know.

This is the first time TOSU and WMU have hooked up.  The Broncos have almost completed their goal of losing to every B1G team having gone 0-13 over the past 7 seasons to 9 different teams.  (After Saturday, only Penn State, Wisconsin, Rutgers & Maryland remain).  They do have former OSU Grad Asst and reigning MAC Coach of the Year PJ Fleck on the sidelines.  They also return 6 All-Mac offensive players as well as 2014 MAC’s Offensive player of the year and Freshman of the Year, Jarvion Franklin.  And their QB has thrown for over 300+ yards in each of the first three games.  So, their offense is supposed to be pretty good and you will undoubtedly hear this a few times on Saturday.

As for their defense . . . well . . . let’s just say they are not proficient in stopping . . . anyone.  The Broncos are giving up 225 yards/game on the ground, and they have surrendered 10 rushing TDs in 3 games.  Their passing defense stats are acceptable, but probably only because it is so easy (in theory) to run on them.  

The line opened up at -28, but it is now up to -31.5, with the over/under at 61.   The money seems to indicate that bettors believe the Buckeyes will get their offense woes ironed out.  If there ever was a time to get our act together, it would be this week.  This is not a stout defense with an All-American DB.  The Buckeyes SHOULD be able to move the ball down the field rather easily even with the Broncos stacking the box waiting for the run.  However, WMU has one of the best offenses in the MAC and did put 24 up on MSU.  I don’t think we completely stop them – just slow them down (and then they should sound like this – by the way, is it just me or does this guy look like our own Don Powell with shaggy hair?)

Buckeyes are 1-2 ATS and WMU is 2-1.   The Bronocos are also a very nice 8-3 as an away dog over the past 2+ seasons.  Our offense is not gelling.  Even if they were, I think I would still advise you to take points, but bet the over.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 42, Western Michigan  24.

Northern Illinois

Sorry I’m a bit late with this but I’ve been at the Happiest Place on Earth.  No, not here.  I meant here.

In my rush to pack, get the dogs to the new kennel, and mow my yard, I forgot to set the DVR for Hawaii.  So, I missed watching the game, but followed the action via ESPN GameCast while stuck in line at Aerosmith’s Rock and Roller Coaster.   What I cannot understand is that we seemed to dominate the game statistically for the first 3 quarters, but could not score.  So, maybe conventional wisdom was right – maybe the players were groggy from the short week and had a VT hangover.   They still almost covered though and pitched a shutout.

So, do we overreact and think that this year’s Buckeye team is last year’s FSU?  A team that has superior talent but struggles every week to find their mojo and a way to win?  Or, does Urban Meyer kick this team’s collective a—and get the boys in the right frame of mind this week?

Northern Illinois has only played TOSU once before and that was in 2006 when we were No. 1.  I didn’t remember that we got up 28-0 early in that game.  What I remember was this on the 2^nd play of the game.  We ended up winning 35-12 and covered the 17 point spread, but RB Garrett Wolfe ran for 171 and caught 5 passes for 114 more.  He was scary and actually led 1-A football in rushing that year.   Fortunately, he graduated and they don’t have anyone nearly as talented.  What they have been is consistently good.  The Huskies have won 5 straight MAC West titles and have been either 12-2 or 11-3 in each of the last 5 years.   And thanks to this man, we all know how good the MAC is.

NIU is only 5-21 in road openers, but have won 3 straight including two against Iowa and Northwestern.   The Buckeyes are 67-1 at home against unranked non-conference opponents.    The current line is OSU by 34.5 with an over/under of 67.   Normally, I’d say that Urban gets the boys ready to play and we post 55 or so and win by 40.   However, T-storms are scheduled to run through Columbus just about kickoff.  I think that holds us back a bit.  Also, I’m not sure how Urban feels about our FG kicker so we may eschew a 3-point attempt and go for it again on 4^th in Husky territory, which may not be successful.  Northern Illinois will grind it out on the ground shortening the game as well.  So, I’m suggesting you take NIU and the points, and bet the under.   

Schaef says:  Ohio State 42, Northern Illinois 17.

Hawaii

Are you ready for some haka?  

The Rainbows come to Ohio Stadium Saturday to play on national television (Big Ten Network) and collect a check for $1.2 million.  With a round trip being 9,020 miles, that’s $133/mile (in case you were curious).  Hawai’i needs that sizeable check because the athletic department ran a $2.1 million deficit in 2013.   Hawai’i will play Wisconsin at Camp Randall in 2 weeks and should receive another $1 million.

There is no real risk of Ohio State losing Saturday.  The Rainbows are 1-6 in games played in the Eastern Time Zone (it will be a 9:30 a.m. local time start for them).   Hawai’i is 0-3 v. No. 1 ranked teams – losing by an average of 53-10, and are a pathetic 19-52-2 in nationally televised games.  Recent history has not been kind as they have lost 9 straight non-conference road games.

They do have Max Wittek at QB though.   I know what you are thinking.   Wittek was a 5-star recruit who won the backup job at USC behind Matt Barkley.  However, Wittek eventually got beat out by Cody Kessler during his Sophomore year and decided to transfer.   So, while he has talent, he still plays for Hawai’i. 

The line started at -38 but is now up to -40, with the over/under being 59.5.  We all remember the 2^nd game blues under the Tressel/Fickell years (2003 – San Diego State; 2004 – Marshall; 2007 – Akron; 2008 – Ohio; and 2011 – Toledo).  In each the Buckeyes were favored by huge margins, but instead had to eek out victories.   Tressel was 7-7 ATS v. Non-conference opponents when Ohio State was a 25+ favorite.   Meyer is already 4-2.  However, with the big game Monday night, the late return to Columbus (Cardale tweeted at 3:41 a.m. that they were back) and the short turnaround, this sets up to be a game that is closer than anticipated.

Don’t.  You. Believe. It.

While the Tech win was great, there was plenty to improve upon.  The coaches will be all over the players this week to make that improvement.  If this was a sleepy Noon kickoff, I might feel differently, but it’s at 3:30.  Oh, did I mention that Bosa, Wilson, Marshall, and Smith finally get to play?  Think they are itching to get out there?   And I think there was a steeper talent drop off in the Tressel years than now.  When Cardale exits and Barrett comes on, J.T. is not going to just hand the ball off.  We are going to run the same offense whether its Cardale, Zeke, Marshall, Braxton, and Thomas, or it Barrett, Samuel, Dunn/Ball/Weber, Smith, and Wilson.  How are we not going to score?  And often?

I had a vision that the next several weeks [read: Nine] the AVERAGE score was going to be 56-14.   Too many weapons on offense against a defense that Phil Steele has rated as one of the worst in the Mountain West Conference.  Big days all around. “You get a touchdown!  You get a touchdown!  Everybody gets a touchdown!”   Give the points and Ohio State takes care of the over/under by itself.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 66, Hawai’i 7.

Virginia Tech

Let me start the season off with this message for any of you returning to this blog: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PirVtiJuvDs

And a hearty welcome for any newbies to the site. 

So, basically, each week I will tell you that Ohio State will win each game by 20+ points on our inevitable march to the National Championship, right?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdoOaDmFuO0’

Va. Tech’s Lane Stadium is an intimidating place to play.  Coach Frank Beamer is 134-39-1 there and the Hokies are 18-1 in their last 19 home openers.  Oh yeah, and they did this to us last year. Tech has 16 returning starters, listed just outside the Top 25, and we are playing without suspended starters Joey Bosa, Corey Smith, Dontre Wilson, and Jalin Marshall, as well as injured 2^nd string WR Noah Brown.  Suffice to say:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBknAcTaMiI

Should you be concerned?  Yes, you should be.  Should you remove all sharp objects from your home?  No.  Let’s start with Lane Stadium shall we?  Yes, Beamer’s win total there is impressive, but the Hokies are 7-6 at home the last 2 years.  They have lost at least one home game in 14 of the last 15 seasons.  Conversely, the Buckeyes have lost only 6 times in 9 years at the Shoe.  Lane Stadium as an impenetrable fortress is a myth.

As for Virginia Tech’s 16 returning starters, that was from a 7-6 team.  We have 14 starters returning from a 14-1 team.  Essentially, the same two teams that lined up last year are lining up again.  “But they beat us,” you say.  So they did.  However, it is not like they dominated us in every aspect of the game.   We outgained them, the turnover battle was a draw, we missed two FGs in the first half, and yet it was still 21-21 in the 4^th.   The difference in the game was that our brand new O-line had not yet gelled and our new Redshirt Freshman QB was still learning on the job.   Those two factors were completely different by November 1, and the Hokies will not see the same thing this time.

I respect Frank Beamer and his DC Bud Foster.  I really do.  But Nick Saban had a month to prepare for us and we beat ‘Bama.   We’ve had a year to digest film of the Va. Tech loss and I think we will be ready.   I think J.T. Barrett should get the start because I think the offense works best with him, and I think he will be best prepared to handle whatever new wrinkles the Hokies have in store.  Then again, 12 Gauge (Cardale Jones) beat ‘Bama, so he could do it as well.  Tech’s defense will be good.  Very good.  But their offense is still trying to sort it all out.  To beat the Buckeyes (especially the Buckeyes as they currently exist) you need to score 40.  Am I wrong about that?

This will mark the 4^th time in the last 7 years that Virginia Tech opens with a top 5 team.   They lost all 3 prior meetings, two of them at home.  Ohio State is currently favored by 12.   Tech has been a big dog (double digits) only 4 times in the past 15 years.  They are 1-3 S/U in those games.   And here’s a little known fact:  in 2013, Va. Tech went on the road and beat East Carolina, Miami, and Georgia Tech, but in 2014, those same three teams won the rematch in Lane Stadium.   Add to that the fact that since 2010, Ohio State is 8-0 seeking revenge from the previous season loss, and wins those rematches by an average of 14 ppg. Proof.

The first game of the year is always difficult to predict.  I think the first 3 quarters will be close.  But I think where they dominated the 4^th quarter last year, we will dominate this year.  This time, the last two touchdowns go to us and we pull away to a solid, workmanlike win.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 34, Va. Tech 17