Purdue

Ok, that's it.

This has become an impossible task. My instincts have been so wrong and my record reflects that. I thought I at least had the offense figured out, but whatever disease has been afflicting the Ohio State back 7 on defense has now spread to the offensive line. I mean, my Grandma (who just turned 100 this past Monday and who can barely see due to macular degeneration) was talking to me on the phone and said, "Why is 59 still out there? Get him off the field!"  (True story). 

While it is so easy to pick on RT Isaiah Prince, it's everyone. Check out LT (75) Thayer Munford with the "whiff" on 4th and 2 here.

Or C (73) Michael Jordan on these back-to-back plays. First he gets pushed back 5-7 yards right into Haskins' lap, and then misses on a pulling block.

I could go on, and others on the web have, but you get the point.  We now have a resistible force to go along with our moveable object. 

But at least we are playing Purdue, right?  Nothing to be worried about.  Or is there?

The Boilermakers started off the season with losses to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, and Missouri.  Yes, I said Eastern Michigan. In West Lafayette.  Oy.

But here's the thing - those 3 losses were by a combined 8 points.  Since that time, Purdue has defeated Boston College by 17, Nebraska by 14, and Illinois by 39. Yes, there is still a question of how good are they because the combined record of those 3 teams is 9-11.  The point is that the Boilers have apparently fixed whatever was bothering them early in the season and now have their train going in the right direction.  

Statistically, Purdue's offense is very similar to ours.  Ohio State is No. 3 in passing, Purdue is No. 7.  The Buckeyes are 52nd in rushing, Purdue is 59th. They are led by Senior QB (11) David Blough, who came off the bench to start the season, then split time with another QB, and finally took over the starting job.  His performance over the past few weeks (10 TDs, 2 INTs) helps explain why Purdue is 3-0 (and perhaps why they were 0-3 to start the season).  He has the potential to light us up.

He's going to throw a lot to WR (4) Rondale Moore, who has a lot of catches, a lot of yards, and a lot of TDs.  And he can run too.  Senior RB (1) D.J. Knox is small (5'7") but solid (215 lbs) and averaging 90 ypg over the past 3.   Yes, it seems 2nd year coach Jeff Brohm's system is starting to work.  The Boilermakers are averaging 21 pts/game in the 1st half. With our defense, color me concerned.

While Purdue's defense may not have great stats, they did hold an Illinois offense that was averaging 260.8 ypg on the ground to 69.

With our running game struggling, our pass protection weakening, our defense getting pushed around, and our rash of injuries, let me add to that Ohio State's history at West Lafayette.  We are 8-0 v. the Boilermakers in Columbus, but only 5-4 in our last 9 trips to Ross-Ade stadium.  Included in those were this gem, and the comeback that should've have been but ended up not being a win. That 5-4 record is straight up, not against the spread.  And we are playing at night on ABC/ESPN.  Granted, Urban Meyer has only lost 8 games while at Ohio State, but 6 of those have been at night.  If you are looking for symmetry, Meyer has lost 3 at home, 3 at a neutral site, and only 2 away . . . so far.  I'm just saying that if you are looking to make a case for a loss, it's all here.

Vegas certainly is starting to wonder.  After weeks of making the Buckeyes 25+ favorites, this week the line is only 13.  Purdue is 4-0 ATS since an 0-2 start and 2-0 ATS when a dog.  We have a less than ideal history in West Lafayette, and the past few weeks we've looked very vulnerable.  Sure we have some stats on our side (such as: for all our defensive woes, we've held 6 of 7 opponents scoreless in the 4th quarter this year, and only given up 6 3rd quarter points in the last 4). But, if I'm true to myself and all the data and trends that I cherish, all signs point to taking Purdue plus the points and even, dare I say it, a straight up Boiler victory.  

But this season, maybe it's tuna on toast.   (Please click this link - it's the entire reason for this post).

Every instinct I have says Purdue wins this one 27-24. But every instinct I've had about the Buckeyes recently is wrong.  So, I should pull a George.  With no rhyme or reason:

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 49, Purdue 24.  Buckeyes cover!  Bet the over (68.5)!

Bonus:

At least one positive highlight is needed:

Holy Buckeye

Holy Buckeye .

Ok, maybe two:

2012 Ohio State Purdue Final Minute of Regulation and Overtime

2012 Ohio State Purdue Final Minute of Regulation and Overtime Backup Quarterback Kenny Guiton replaces injured starter Braxton Miller, and leads the Buckeyes to an improbable...

Minnesota

So, the Gophers, eh? Paging Carl Spackler.

When I think of the long and storied history of Ohio State and Minnesota in football, the game I most frequently recall is  . . . 

Actually, I don't recall any.  I mean we had one or two nice comebacks against them up in the Metrodome many years ago, but there is not a lot of rich tradition between these two.  Ok, so former Buckeye assistant and current Big Ten Network commentator Glen Mason upset us in the Shoe in 2000 when Cooper's team started 5-0.  Oh, and J.T. Barrett ran 86 yards in the snow up in Minneapolis, so I guess that is something.

The Gophers are now coached by the caffeinated and nautically-minded PJ Fleck.  He's going to do great things at Minnesota, but just not this year.  The team has the most Freshman on any Division I roster.  Not surprisingly, they rank 116th out of 130 teams in experience. They start true Freshman at QB named Zack Annexstad, and backing him up are, wait for it, three Redshirt Freshman.  They also play 2 Freshmen RBs, but that is partly due to injury.

Despite that inexperience, the Gophers started out 3-0 with wins over New Mexico State, Fresno State, and Miami (Ohio), giving up a total of 27 points in those first 3 matches. However, the team's fortunes have changed with the start of the B1G season. Minnesota has lost their last two, and in doing so they gave up 41 points to Maryland and 48 to Iowa. Not only has their defense vanished, but their running game has gone from 295 yards in game 1 to 86 last week, decreasing each and every week.

Meanwhile, Ohio State was admittedly tired and practiced with lower energy last week.  You can bet Meyer won't let that happen again. Also, I have to believe that there will be an emphasis on tightening up the defensive play and certain people (players and coaches) will be highly motivated to perform well.  And this is just the type of opponent to boost your confidence:  Minnesota is 114th in total offense, which is worse by far than Tulane (89th) and almost as bad as Rutgers (126th), the two teams we held to under 10 points.

So, given our defense's up and down performance, who wants to try and predict this one?  While Minnesota's defense is statistically pretty good, I believe those stats are heavily weighted on the first three games, not the last two B1G results (I mean, Maryland is now 101st in total offense that is AFTER putting up over 420 yards v. the Gophers.  So how bad were the Terrapins before?).  And Iowa is not an offensive juggernaut (the game against us in 2017 notwithstanding).  I think the Hoosiers D is better and we torched them for 49.  I think put up similar points or more on Minnesota. On the other side of the ball, I think we are due for a return of the Silver Bullets that we've seen in years past.  I think the Gophers will not have much success running or throwing.

Vegas has the line at 29.5, which is to be expected.  The over/under, however, is only 59.5.   Yeah.  I think the Buckeyes score enough to get you really close and the Gophers manage something because . . . well, our defense.  Give the points, bet the over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 56, Minnesota 10.

Bonus 1:  Did you know? The Honeycrisp apple was developed at the Horticulture Research Center at the University of Minnesota in 1974.  It was made available to the public in 1991 and now is one of the most popular varieties of apple.

Bonus 2:  J.T. Barrett's run.

Bonus 3:  More Carl Spackler.

Indiana

Woody had Michigan State.  Earle had Wisconsin.  Cooper had Illinois.  And Tressel had Purdue.  Each had a B1G team that should not give the Buckeyes problems, but often did.  For Urban Meyer, that team is Indiana.

Unlike all the prior coaches, Meyer has not lost to Indiana, but that's not to say we didn't try.  Check out the scores from the first 5 meetings and Vegas line:

2012 - Ohio State 52, Indiana 49  (Ohio State -18)

2013 - Ohio State 42, Indiana 14  (Ohio State -34.5)

2014 - Ohio State 42, Indiana 27  (Ohio State -34.5)

2015 - Ohio State 34, Indiana 27  (Ohio State -22.5)

2016 - Ohio State 38, Indiana 17  (Ohio State -28)

Some of you may be nodding at this point, while others may be wondering how can a 21 point win be troubling?  It's this - there isn't a single cover in those first five meetings.  There is some disconnect between Vegas and the Buckeyes when it comes to the Hoosiers.  In many of those games, Indiana had 3rd quarter leads.  The streak was finally broken in the opener of 2017 when Ohio State won 49-21 and covered the 21 point spread (in a prediction that will go down in infamy).

Usually, the Hoosiers have a high tempo offense and a suspect defense.  This year it is the opposite. IU's pass defense and total defense numbers are better than Ohio State's, and the rushing defense and scoring defense are almost equal.  They've held 3 opponents to 17 points or less. Granted those foes were Rutgers, Ball State, and Virginia, it is still improvement.  But now they get to meet Dwayne Haskins.

On the other side of the ball, the Hoosiers have one of the most accurate passers in the nation in QB Peyton Ramsey.  He's completing 71% of his throws, which is impressive.  But if Chris Fowler wants to criticize Haskins for short throws, he should take a look at Ramsey.  While Haskins is completing 70.7% of his passes, the average attempt goes for 9.6 yards.  Ramsey's, meanwhile, go for 6.1 yards.   IU dinks and dunks down the field, but unlike Ohio State, their WRs have almost no yards after the catch.  Despite such short throws, Ramsey has 5 INTs, so either those are longer throws or he sometimes makes bad decisions on his short ones.

Indiana comes into the game 4-1 with their loss to Michigan State 21-35.  Even though they've won 4 of 5, they have only outscored their opponents in one quarter, winning the second quarter by a margin of 66-14.  Withstand that 15 minutes and you should be fine.

Yes, we are coming off an emotional win last week, and last year we [deleted] the pooch v. Iowa after beating Penn State.  But that was on the road, this is at home. I think the coaches and players still have that Iowa result fresh in their minds.  And the way Trace McSorley tore up our defense to the tune of 461 yards by himself, will have our coaches and players focused on improvement.  I know we are a bit banged up, but we have sufficient depth for this opponent.  As for the offensive side of the ball, I don't see IU's improved defense causing us much problem.  I think Haskins will stretch the field more than he did v. the Nittany Lions and it will look more like Oregon State, Rutgers, and Tulane.

Vegas has Ohio State favored by 25 (down from 27) with an over/under of 64.5.  Despite Indiana being 5-1 ATS v. Urban, I think you go with the 1, not the 5.  I like the Buckeyes at home to cover and I like the under (barely). 

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 49, Indiana 14.

Year to date:  S/U 5-0, ATS 3-2, O/U 4-1.

Bonus:  Perhaps the greatest moment in this rivalry, at least for Buckeye fans.

Ohio State vs. Indiana 1996