Wednesday, August 09, 2006

No. 1 and Tipping Points

As this blog is titled "More Than Buckeyes", I would be remiss if I did not first address the initial USA Today Coaches' Poll which has Ohio State ranked No. 1. Yea. Woohoo. I think that most of the Buckeye Nation is content with being No. 1 but realize that it doesn't really matter now. Recall 2003 when the Buckeyes opened up at No. 2, and while they their first 3 games, they dropped to No. 5. All that matters is where you are at the end of the season. (E.g., Tennesse, No. 3 in first 2005 poll, finished 5-6).

It did, however, lead me to wonder how many times Ohio State opened up the season as No. 1. I have results of every game from 1968 on, with only Associated Press rankings (as the Coaches' Poll is only a recent creation - beginning in 1991). Ohio State opened up as the No. 1 team four other times - 1969, 1970, 1980 and 1998. They finished 4th, 5th, 15th and 2nd, respectively. In 1969, 1970 and 1998, they lost only one game each year (Michigan, Stanford, and MSU), so that bodes well for 2006 (the 1980 team was coached by Earle Bruce and obligated to finish 9-3).

The fact that Texas is currently ranked No. 2 leads to the potential 1 versus 2 match-up on September 9 (assuming both teams get through their opener and the coaches don't change their minds). So, you ask, how many times have the Buckeyes been involved with a regular season No. 1 v. No. 2 matchup? The Answer - None (since 1967, that is). In the Bowl season, they have been involved in two, which are two of the most famous games in Ohio State history. First was the 1969 Rose Bowl, when the Super Sophs of No. 1 OSU slashed the Juice-led No. 2 Southern Cal Trojans (please note my apologies in failing to avoid the tasteless OJ Simpson pun there). The other was a game you may have heard of - the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, when the No. 2 Buckeyes vanquished the great enemy of the South, Miami, in double OT. I was there for that shining moment.

What about that team up North? Well, none of the great Buckeye-Wolverine matchups involved 1 versus 2. The closest that series came was three matchups of No. 1 versus No. 4 (1973 and 1975 when Ohio State was on top, and 1997 when Michigan won their mythical National Championship).

A No. 1 v. No. 2 matchup in the regular season is so rare, that I have only found 4 such instances in the past 30 years. (1966 - Notre Dame tied Michigan State; 1969 - Texas defeated Arkansas; 1971 - Nebraska defeated Oklahoma; and 1993 - Notre Dame upset Florida State). As I am always looking for some sign that will bring joy to the Buckeye faithful, I offer these tidbits: In each game, the No. 1 was the visitor, just as Ohio State will be the visitor in Austin; the top-ranked team was 2-0-1 in the three games not played at South Bend - I'm eliminating the FSU-ND game because games played at Notre Dame are of questionable statistical value, i.e. strange things happen there. There have probably been other games - 1985/1986 Oklahoma v. Miami, Fl. may be another - but the point is that these games are very rare and the No. 1 team has done well.

Maurice Clarett - Update

Had he taken his one year suspension, and stayed for all 4 years of his eligibility, Maurice Clarett would be a senior at Ohio State this fall. Instead of wearing No. 13 on the No. 1 team, Clarett is being fitted for a longer prison number at the No. 1 penal institution. You see, early Wednesday morning, Mo made an illegal left hand turn in his SUV. When the police flipped on the lights, he did what he used to be very good at - avoided being caught. He led police on a high speed chase and forced them to blowout his tires in order to stop him. Now, you may think that's all, but just like a Ginsu knife offer, there's more. He would not get out of the car, and when he did, he would not cooperate so the police tried to Taser him. A taser works on most people because they don't wear bullet-proof vests! But Clarett was wearing this new fashion accessory and so the police had to use mace to subdue him. This incident, coupled with his upcoming trial for armed robbery - he flashed a gun at two people when he stole their wallets in January - means that my long held prediction needs to be altered. You see, back when the first Clarett problems surfaced in 2003, I predicted that Dateline NBC would do a story on him around 2007, and they would not find him in the NFL, but rather working at a car wash in Youngstown. I now formally amend the location for that prediction to the state penitentiary at Lucasville.

It's a sad and pathetic fall for someone with so much football talent. You wonder where the "Tipping Point" occurred and when Clarett was past the point of being saved. For those of you unfamiliar with "The Tipping Point" - author Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book about little changes that make huge difference, and changes that happend quickly and unexpectedly. He gets the name from epidemiology describing when a virus reaches critical mass. The Clarett situation does not exactly fit with Gladwell's book, but yet I wonder at what in the timeline when Clarett was inevitably headed for destruction? Was it his outburst at the 2003 Fiesta Bowl when he was upset that OSU would not fly him back to Youngstown for a friend's funeral - even though Clarett was terrified of flying? Was it in July of '03 when he filed that police report alleging $10k of stuff stolen from a car he "borrowed" (wink, wink) from a local dealer - a report that turned out to be false? Was it when he was suspended from the team for the 2003 season and then sued to NFL to be eligible for the draft in 2004 - a ruling that was initially granted in his favor, and then overturned? Or, was it not until he was drafted by the Denver Broncos in April 2005, but later cut in August 2005 - because he refused to practice and wanted the trainer fired? At some point

It's possible that the Tipping Point occurred prior to Clarett even enrolling at OSU. Maybe his course was set in stone by then. In that case, we should turn to Gladwell's other best-seller "Blink", which deals with rapid cognition. This is thinking that occurs in the blink of an eye. It is not intuition, but rational thought that occurs on a subconscious level, but thought that we cannot yet verbalize because we are not fully aware of it. As it applies to Clarett, could Tressel and other OSU coaches have looked at Clarett while recruiting him and determined instantly - don't recruit him, he's bad news. Gladwell says we can do this, we do do this, and that we are correct much more often than we are wrong on those instant judgments. This is counter-intuitive thinking as society tells us to "get all the facts" because you "don't judge a book by it's cover." But by getting more facts and taking more time, we rationalize Clarett's behavior and make excuses for it. We also think that we can be the Florence Nightingale and change this talented player's bad habits.

We are seeing that coaches cannot change players and keep them from making magnificent errors in judgment. Open up Espn.com and see what is going on at Oklahoma, Auburn, San Jose State, Miami (Fl.) and other schools this fall. The coaches know these guys are of questionable character, yet the pressure to win and win now is so great, that they look the other way and go against their own good judgment. Clarett may be the most spectacular flame out in College Football history, but he most certainly won't be the last.


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