48-7, 20-0, 38-20, 49-6, 51-3, 31-7 and 48-7. That's the result of the Wildcats last 7 trips to the 'Shoe (1990 - 2005). That's an average score of 40-7. The only thing more certain than an OSU win over N'western in Columbus is an OSU win over Minnesota in Minnesota.
Tyrell Sutton from Akron is the motor that makes the Wildcat offense run. If he's not playing, N'western is capable of losing to the likes of Duke - oh, look who beat them last week! Duke. Sutton is injured and may not play on Saturday. If he doesn't play it won't matter which Ohio State team shows up - the Buckeyes will win, and the should cover the spread (currently - 22.5). If Sutton does play, he'll make it closer, but not by much.
Northwestern's offense has comparable stats to Ohio State's, but that's not the Wildcats' problem. Their defense has been bending against the likes of Duke, Northeastern and Nevada (370 yards/game allowed) but not breaking (only 17 pts/game against). The only reason they've been able to keep the points down is because they were playing Duke, Northeastern and Nevada. The Wildcat D does not put any pressure on the QB (110th in sacks), does not even get in the backfield (76th in tackles for loss) and does not create many turnovers (+1 in three games). If the Buckeyes bear any resemblance to the 2nd half team that played Washington, they better put new lights in the scoreboard.
Northwestern's offense runs the spread, and I think we've already seen that against Akron (but I don't know for sure because I could not see the game!) I think Washington ran a version of the spread, so I'm not worried about our defense handling that system (unlike Michigan's).
The weather should be great. The only thing to fear is that we have a let down after a relatively "big" game last week. I don't think the team is that good to be that cocky, and I'm sure Tres will remind them of that. So, take OSU and give the 22.5 points.
Ohio State 45-10.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Washington
Man, this is a problem. Almost all of the stats seem to favor the Buckeyes, but I have this bad feeling about this game. I had the same bad feeling v. Florida, but used the stats to talk myself out of it. I don't know that I can do that this time.
First, the stats. Ohio State is 13-3 in its last 16 non-conference road games. Our last lost was 2001 at UCLA (6-13) in Tressel's first year, when we were a 6.5 point underdog. Ohio State is No. 1 in Total Defense, (13) in Rushing Defense, (3) in Pass Defense, and (5) in Scoring Defense. Ohio State is also 3rd in the nation in net punting.
Washington is led by a freshman QB and coming off 3 straight losing seasons. While OSU beat Youngstown State and Akron, Washington pummeled an equally weak Syracuse team, before beating nationally ranked Boise State in Seattle last week. Neither Syracuse nor Boise State is as big or physical as the Buckeyes, so this should be something new for the Huskies. I was able to see some of Washington v. Boise State, and while the boys on the Huskies O-Line are very large, they look fat and slow. Their WRs dropped more passes that I could count, and the QB and RB messed up on 2-3 plays in where they were supposed to go.
So, while this game shapes up to be a 20-7 Buckeye win, I can't shake the feeling that this will be a loss. First, I look at turnovers. Ohio State is 110th in the nation at - 5, Washington is 17th and + 3. Next, is the 3-hour time change and the travel to get out to Seattle. Also, I think our offense lacks leadership. I don't think Boeckman, Wells, Robiskie or anyone else takes charge in the huddle and demands perfection. And why can't we seem to run the ball? We are 48th in rushing, but I think that is due to Wells' two huge runs late in the game v. Akron. Washington's run defense is solid, as solid as the Buckeyes (18th v. 13th nationally). You can beat them through the air as their secondary is weak, but you've got to get the pass off first. Their D-line is wicked fast and were in the Boise State backfield often. They have more sacks and tackles for loss than we do. My problem is that I don't have the confidence that Boeckman will be able to read/feel the pressure in time and get the pass off.
I have this fear that Washington may do what it did against the Broncos, which is get outgained, but make one big play on offense and have their defense cause turnovers to make the field shorter and score more points. This QB - Jake Locker - is big and mobile. Kind of like Elway (who beat us in 1982) and Vince Young (who beat us in 2005). I think he's a natural leader who could will his team to victory. I think if they get ahead we will have a very difficult time trying to catch up. So for the first time ever, I predict an OSU loss.
MTB says - take the home team and the 4 points, you won't need them. Washington by 4, 27-23.
First, the stats. Ohio State is 13-3 in its last 16 non-conference road games. Our last lost was 2001 at UCLA (6-13) in Tressel's first year, when we were a 6.5 point underdog. Ohio State is No. 1 in Total Defense, (13) in Rushing Defense, (3) in Pass Defense, and (5) in Scoring Defense. Ohio State is also 3rd in the nation in net punting.
Washington is led by a freshman QB and coming off 3 straight losing seasons. While OSU beat Youngstown State and Akron, Washington pummeled an equally weak Syracuse team, before beating nationally ranked Boise State in Seattle last week. Neither Syracuse nor Boise State is as big or physical as the Buckeyes, so this should be something new for the Huskies. I was able to see some of Washington v. Boise State, and while the boys on the Huskies O-Line are very large, they look fat and slow. Their WRs dropped more passes that I could count, and the QB and RB messed up on 2-3 plays in where they were supposed to go.
So, while this game shapes up to be a 20-7 Buckeye win, I can't shake the feeling that this will be a loss. First, I look at turnovers. Ohio State is 110th in the nation at - 5, Washington is 17th and + 3. Next, is the 3-hour time change and the travel to get out to Seattle. Also, I think our offense lacks leadership. I don't think Boeckman, Wells, Robiskie or anyone else takes charge in the huddle and demands perfection. And why can't we seem to run the ball? We are 48th in rushing, but I think that is due to Wells' two huge runs late in the game v. Akron. Washington's run defense is solid, as solid as the Buckeyes (18th v. 13th nationally). You can beat them through the air as their secondary is weak, but you've got to get the pass off first. Their D-line is wicked fast and were in the Boise State backfield often. They have more sacks and tackles for loss than we do. My problem is that I don't have the confidence that Boeckman will be able to read/feel the pressure in time and get the pass off.
I have this fear that Washington may do what it did against the Broncos, which is get outgained, but make one big play on offense and have their defense cause turnovers to make the field shorter and score more points. This QB - Jake Locker - is big and mobile. Kind of like Elway (who beat us in 1982) and Vince Young (who beat us in 2005). I think he's a natural leader who could will his team to victory. I think if they get ahead we will have a very difficult time trying to catch up. So for the first time ever, I predict an OSU loss.
MTB says - take the home team and the 4 points, you won't need them. Washington by 4, 27-23.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Akron
It is not so much a question of what Akron presents, as it is a question of how much Ohio State will improve from last week. Akron beat Army last week 22-13, but had a 74 yard INT return for a TD, and used a 70 yard kick return to set up a FG. They do have a WR who is 6'4" 225 that we should keep an eye on. But I don't think they can do much damage, unless we let them.
No, the issue is whether Ohio State will show improvement which acts as a springboard to a potentially great season, or struggles which foreshadows a long, difficult year. Think back to 2002 - after a nice win v. Texas Tech, OSU came out and crushed Kent State 51-17. We went on to go 14-0. The next year with everyone but Clarett back, we followed up a good win v. Washington with a 16-13 squeaker against San Diego State. While we went 10-2 that year, we were not impressive against anyone and struggled all year with no running game. In 2004, we cruised past Cincinnati in the opener, but then needed Nuge's 54-yard FG as time expired to beat Marshall. That showed that our No. 9 ranking was way too high and 4 weeks later we were out of the polls.
Last I checked the spread was 29 and at first I thought that was too low. But OSU under Tressel is not good when huge favorites over non-conference opponents. OSU is 3-5 ATS v. non-conference opponents when favored by 20+. Tressel is also 3-4 ATS v. the MAC. I thought this could be a 45-16 game which puts the game as a push, but I think I'm giving our new offense too much credit. Also, T-storms are predicted to hit during the first half, so weather will play a factor. I think I'd take the Zips and the points.
MTB says:
Akron 3 0 7 6 - 16
OSU 10 7 7 10 - 34
No, the issue is whether Ohio State will show improvement which acts as a springboard to a potentially great season, or struggles which foreshadows a long, difficult year. Think back to 2002 - after a nice win v. Texas Tech, OSU came out and crushed Kent State 51-17. We went on to go 14-0. The next year with everyone but Clarett back, we followed up a good win v. Washington with a 16-13 squeaker against San Diego State. While we went 10-2 that year, we were not impressive against anyone and struggled all year with no running game. In 2004, we cruised past Cincinnati in the opener, but then needed Nuge's 54-yard FG as time expired to beat Marshall. That showed that our No. 9 ranking was way too high and 4 weeks later we were out of the polls.
Last I checked the spread was 29 and at first I thought that was too low. But OSU under Tressel is not good when huge favorites over non-conference opponents. OSU is 3-5 ATS v. non-conference opponents when favored by 20+. Tressel is also 3-4 ATS v. the MAC. I thought this could be a 45-16 game which puts the game as a push, but I think I'm giving our new offense too much credit. Also, T-storms are predicted to hit during the first half, so weather will play a factor. I think I'd take the Zips and the points.
MTB says:
Akron 3 0 7 6 - 16
OSU 10 7 7 10 - 34
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)