Washington

Man, this is a problem. Almost all of the stats seem to favor the Buckeyes, but I have this bad feeling about this game. I had the same bad feeling v. Florida, but used the stats to talk myself out of it. I don't know that I can do that this time.

First, the stats. Ohio State is 13-3 in its last 16 non-conference road games. Our last lost was 2001 at UCLA (6-13) in Tressel's first year, when we were a 6.5 point underdog. Ohio State is No. 1 in Total Defense, (13) in Rushing Defense, (3) in Pass Defense, and (5) in Scoring Defense. Ohio State is also 3rd in the nation in net punting.

Washington is led by a freshman QB and coming off 3 straight losing seasons. While OSU beat Youngstown State and Akron, Washington pummeled an equally weak Syracuse team, before beating nationally ranked Boise State in Seattle last week. Neither Syracuse nor Boise State is as big or physical as the Buckeyes, so this should be something new for the Huskies. I was able to see some of Washington v. Boise State, and while the boys on the Huskies O-Line are very large, they look fat and slow. Their WRs dropped more passes that I could count, and the QB and RB messed up on 2-3 plays in where they were supposed to go.

So, while this game shapes up to be a 20-7 Buckeye win, I can't shake the feeling that this will be a loss. First, I look at turnovers. Ohio State is 110th in the nation at - 5, Washington is 17th and + 3. Next, is the 3-hour time change and the travel to get out to Seattle. Also, I think our offense lacks leadership. I don't think Boeckman, Wells, Robiskie or anyone else takes charge in the huddle and demands perfection. And why can't we seem to run the ball? We are 48th in rushing, but I think that is due to Wells' two huge runs late in the game v. Akron. Washington's run defense is solid, as solid as the Buckeyes (18th v. 13th nationally). You can beat them through the air as their secondary is weak, but you've got to get the pass off first. Their D-line is wicked fast and were in the Boise State backfield often. They have more sacks and tackles for loss than we do. My problem is that I don't have the confidence that Boeckman will be able to read/feel the pressure in time and get the pass off.

I have this fear that Washington may do what it did against the Broncos, which is get outgained, but make one big play on offense and have their defense cause turnovers to make the field shorter and score more points. This QB - Jake Locker - is big and mobile. Kind of like Elway (who beat us in 1982) and Vince Young (who beat us in 2005). I think he's a natural leader who could will his team to victory. I think if they get ahead we will have a very difficult time trying to catch up. So for the first time ever, I predict an OSU loss.

MTB says - take the home team and the 4 points, you won't need them. Washington by 4, 27-23.