Illinois

Illinois runs. When they don't run, they run. They are 6th in the nation at 261.30/game, and Rashard Mendenhall is No. 8 in the nation at 135 yds/game. No other RB rushes the ball. The No. 2 guy on the team is the QB Juice Williams at 65 yds/game. The Illini are 113th in the nation in passing offense, so if we get up on them early, they'll still run the ball to get back into it. When they rush 38+ times, they win. When they run less than 35 times/game, they lose. They have the fastest WR in the Big Ten in Frosh Arrelious Benn, but he only gets the ball 5 times a game and has scored 1 offensive TD. Illinois is DEAD LAST in Passing Efficiency in the Big Ten. Not surprising, given the lack of effort to throw, Illinois in No. 9 in the nation in sacks allowed.

The Illini defense is very solid v. the run (22nd) and in scoring (21st). But that being said, teams have called a lot of running plays against Illinois (36.5 times per game). That stat is only marginally inflated by the two teams (Iowa and scUM) that have beaten Illinois - but the other 8 they have played averaged 34 rushes/game. You can pass against them (81st nationally) so expect Boeckman to get his yards. The OSU o-line will have to do another great job at protection because Illinois is 10th in the nation in sacks. They don't have one guy doing it all (ala Penn State) but a bunch of people get into the act.

With the disparity in stats, my guess is that people run on first down and get 2 yards, throw for 7 on second down, and then run for 2 yards on 3rd down v. Illinois. Field position will be in Ohio State's favor because Illinois is 96th in the nation in punting (10th in the Big Ten), and they are not exceptional in the return game. Turnover-wise, Illinois will fumble at least twice (giving at least one away) and will throw one pick per game.

Ohio State is 8-2 S/U but only 4-6 ATS in the last 10 v. Illinois. Looking only at the 5 games in the 'Shoe, OSU is 3-2 S/U and ATS. The trouble with looking at past games with Illinois is that some years they were awful, and the year or two that they were good, OSU was mediocre. Illinois beat OSU 46-20 in Columbus in 1999 which was Cooper's 6-6 campaign, and they won 34-22 in 2001, which was Tressel's first year. In 2005, 12th ranked OSU beat 2-6 Illinois by a 40-2 score. In 1997, No. 4 OSU beat a winless Illinois team 41-6. No. 2 OSU beat a .500 Illinois team in 1995, 41-3.

Illinois is 3-10 in November games since 2003. After they beat OSU in 2001, they went 0-19 v. ranked teams until they beat PSU and Wisc this year (and then lost to scUM). So they are 2-20 v. ranked teams since 2001. They are also 3-15 v. the No. 1 ranked team (BCS & AP) all-time, and the last 6 times they faced No. 1, it was OSU, and the Buckeyes won all 6. The Buckeyes are actually 8-1 v. Illinois when Ohio State is ranked No. 1 (the only Illini win came in 1950 in Champaign). The last time Illinois beat a Top 5 team on the road? 1989 (def. No. 5 USC).

Tressel is 5-1 in his final home game of the year, the only loss being in Year 1, 2001, v. the 12th ranked Illini. That Illinois team was better than our Bellasari-led one. Tressel will not permit this team to blow its 18 game home win streak, its 20 game Big Ten unbeaten streak, and its 10-0 start to this Illini squad. The line is either 14.5 or 15. No Over/Under is set yet, but will probably be about 45. I'd take the Buckeyes and the Over, as OSU's offense is clicking. If OSU wins the toss, expect OSU to take the ball (not defer) and try to score on their opening possession for the 11th straight game. They will, and will eventually get ahead by 17 or more. At some point, time will be against the Illini and they will have to abandon the run. Some 3 and outs, short punts, or better yet, some of the Illini's guaranteed turnovers, and OSU cruises into the showdown with Michigan next week.

MTB says: Ohio State 35, Illinois 17

Wisconsin

Okay, I give up. This season is too unpredictable, as are the Buckeyes. After Penn State, I am now convinced our offense is much better than I had thought. But, I am wondering if our defense is as good as we once thought. Vegas has been wrong - to some extent - on the Buckeyes as well. Example 1 - 19 point favorite v. MSU, 24-17 final. But then again, it was 24-0 and we were driving to what look liked another score when the offense caved in. Example 2 - 4 point favorite v. PSU. But then again, it was 17-7 when Joe Pa chickened out on a 4th and 2 from the OSU 41 in the 3rd quarter. PSU punts, OSU drives 90 yards and then Morelli is forced to pass.

The line this week is Buckeyes by 16. Sixteen? Versus 7-2 Wisconsin? The same Wisky team that has won its last 3 visits (and 4 out of 6) to the 'Shoe?

Wisconsin - like PSU - is a jekyll and hyde team. 6-0 at home. 1-2 on the road. They want to pound the ball up the middle until you cry "uncle." They average 200 on the ground and 200 through the air per game. In all 7 of their wins, they rushed the ball at least 44 times per game. In both of their losses, they rushed under 35. In their 7 wins, they rushed for at least 190 yards, and in their 2 losses, less than 135. Also, in their 2 losses they threw the ball more than 30 times which they do not do when they win. This could be understandable if both of their losses were blowouts, but one was very close , at Illinois 26-31 (three weeks ago Wisky went into Happy Valley and got spanked 38-7).

Their defense is mediocre giving up 141 yards on the ground and 193 through the air. They are - 3 in turnover margin on the year, and they are 76th in net punting. Their D line is nothing to speak of getting some sacks but few tackles for loss. Their big O-line ranks 68th in sacks allowed.

Wisconsin's offense is in trouble this week as workhorse P.J. Hill hurt his ankle last week and is questionable. His backup won't be making the trip due to disciplinary reasons. This means they will probably rely upon QB Tyler Donovan to throw a lot against the Buckeyes' No. 1 pass defense.

Wisconsin is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 road games. The road team in this series is 6-2 ATS in the last 8. But, that was a healthy Wisconsin team. Ohio State is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games. Wisconsin is also 3-14 lifetime v. teams ranked No. 1, including losses to No. 1 Ohio State in 1964, 1969, 1973, 1974 and 1975.

57 and sunny for Noon on Saturday. Injured Badger team. Ohio State team gelling on offense back in the comfortable confines of the Shoe. MTB will try again and predict a push: Ohio State 29, Wisconsin 13