Illinois

Illinois runs. When they don't run, they run. They are 6th in the nation at 261.30/game, and Rashard Mendenhall is No. 8 in the nation at 135 yds/game. No other RB rushes the ball. The No. 2 guy on the team is the QB Juice Williams at 65 yds/game. The Illini are 113th in the nation in passing offense, so if we get up on them early, they'll still run the ball to get back into it. When they rush 38+ times, they win. When they run less than 35 times/game, they lose. They have the fastest WR in the Big Ten in Frosh Arrelious Benn, but he only gets the ball 5 times a game and has scored 1 offensive TD. Illinois is DEAD LAST in Passing Efficiency in the Big Ten. Not surprising, given the lack of effort to throw, Illinois in No. 9 in the nation in sacks allowed.

The Illini defense is very solid v. the run (22nd) and in scoring (21st). But that being said, teams have called a lot of running plays against Illinois (36.5 times per game). That stat is only marginally inflated by the two teams (Iowa and scUM) that have beaten Illinois - but the other 8 they have played averaged 34 rushes/game. You can pass against them (81st nationally) so expect Boeckman to get his yards. The OSU o-line will have to do another great job at protection because Illinois is 10th in the nation in sacks. They don't have one guy doing it all (ala Penn State) but a bunch of people get into the act.

With the disparity in stats, my guess is that people run on first down and get 2 yards, throw for 7 on second down, and then run for 2 yards on 3rd down v. Illinois. Field position will be in Ohio State's favor because Illinois is 96th in the nation in punting (10th in the Big Ten), and they are not exceptional in the return game. Turnover-wise, Illinois will fumble at least twice (giving at least one away) and will throw one pick per game.

Ohio State is 8-2 S/U but only 4-6 ATS in the last 10 v. Illinois. Looking only at the 5 games in the 'Shoe, OSU is 3-2 S/U and ATS. The trouble with looking at past games with Illinois is that some years they were awful, and the year or two that they were good, OSU was mediocre. Illinois beat OSU 46-20 in Columbus in 1999 which was Cooper's 6-6 campaign, and they won 34-22 in 2001, which was Tressel's first year. In 2005, 12th ranked OSU beat 2-6 Illinois by a 40-2 score. In 1997, No. 4 OSU beat a winless Illinois team 41-6. No. 2 OSU beat a .500 Illinois team in 1995, 41-3.

Illinois is 3-10 in November games since 2003. After they beat OSU in 2001, they went 0-19 v. ranked teams until they beat PSU and Wisc this year (and then lost to scUM). So they are 2-20 v. ranked teams since 2001. They are also 3-15 v. the No. 1 ranked team (BCS & AP) all-time, and the last 6 times they faced No. 1, it was OSU, and the Buckeyes won all 6. The Buckeyes are actually 8-1 v. Illinois when Ohio State is ranked No. 1 (the only Illini win came in 1950 in Champaign). The last time Illinois beat a Top 5 team on the road? 1989 (def. No. 5 USC).

Tressel is 5-1 in his final home game of the year, the only loss being in Year 1, 2001, v. the 12th ranked Illini. That Illinois team was better than our Bellasari-led one. Tressel will not permit this team to blow its 18 game home win streak, its 20 game Big Ten unbeaten streak, and its 10-0 start to this Illini squad. The line is either 14.5 or 15. No Over/Under is set yet, but will probably be about 45. I'd take the Buckeyes and the Over, as OSU's offense is clicking. If OSU wins the toss, expect OSU to take the ball (not defer) and try to score on their opening possession for the 11th straight game. They will, and will eventually get ahead by 17 or more. At some point, time will be against the Illini and they will have to abandon the run. Some 3 and outs, short punts, or better yet, some of the Illini's guaranteed turnovers, and OSU cruises into the showdown with Michigan next week.

MTB says: Ohio State 35, Illinois 17