Schedule Outlook for Fulham and Relegation Fight

As I write this on 13 January, 2014, Fulham sit in 16th place with 19 points and a league worst goal differential of -24.   But there is some good news.   If Arsenal defeat Aston Villa today, the bottom 11 teams of the EPL will be within six points of each other.  In my limited experience for following Fulham (7 years) I cannot recall so many teams fighting to stay up.  Usually, there is one team who was a lock for the Championship (Derby County, QPR) and 5 or 6 teams fighting not to finish either 18th or 19th.  But this year the chasm has formed between 9th and 10th place, leaving all below to fight for survival.

I took a look at the remaining schedules to see if there was some clue as to what may happen the rest of the way.  Truthfully, I was looking for a "silver lining" for all of Fulham's supporters - a statistical lifeline that we could collectively cling to.  I am sorry to report that my findings were not what I had hoped.

With 17 matches remaining, each team from Hull and Aston Villa on down the table has either 8 or 9 at home and the other number on the road.  More home games usually are beneficial to a team as some turn in Jekyll and Hyde performances depending upon the venue (e.g. Hull City:  18 points + 7 GD at home, 3 points, -7 GD away).  While Fulham have been consistently poor in both locations, they have only 8 home matches versus 9 on the road.

I then looked at how many times each potential relegator plays a Top Nine team, and where they play them. Strike two to Fulham as we have to play all 9 of them (West Ham and Sunderland are the only other two that do).  From this analysis, things look rosy for Hull City and Aston Villa.   Hull only play 7 of the top 9 and they get 6 of the 7 at KC Stadium.  Meanwhile, Villa get 8 of the 9, but 6 of them on the road where the Villains have been playing much better.  Swansea, WBA, Stoke, and Crystal Palace also only have to play 7 of the 9.

What will be even worse for Fulham is that 8 of our next 10 are against Top Nine teams.  So, we could be taking a beating for the next two months without much to show for it in the way of points.  But that also means that 5 of our last 6 will be against bottom teams.  We could make up ground at the end while teams like West Ham (who finish with 5 of 7 against top teams) could be dropping like a stone come springtime.

The end result of my review is that it looks like 6 teams fighting for 3 spots (15th, 16th and 17th, that is):  Norwich City, Fulham, West Ham, Cardiff City, Sunderland, and Crystal Palace.  All but Palace have 8 or 9 matches against the top nine.  Cardiff and Sunderland play most of those on the road.  While Norwich has 9 home matches remaining, 5 of them are against top nine clubs, with the others being Hull, Stoke, WBA, and Sunderland.  With the Canaries being a -17 GD on the road, those home matches will be key and there does not appear to be many wins there.

My off the cuff run through of the rest of the season has Fulham going 3-7-7 for 35 points and I have them safe, only by virtue of winning on the last day at home v. Crystal Palace.   I see Palace, Norwich, and Cardiff going down and the number to be safe being 32. In short, the next several months are going to be squeaky bum time for Fulham fans.

Orange Bowl - Clemson

Yeah, pretty much I forgot we had a game tonight until a friend reminded me.  I think a lot of fans are feeling this way.  The Orange Bowl would have been great had we lost earlier in the Big Ten (say Wisconsin or Northwestern) and couldn’t make the Big Ten Championship, but after 12-0 . . . meh.

The biggest story is not whether the players will be motivated to play (they will), and it is not the injury/suspensions (we have many, they have none).   Rather, the key factor in the game is uniform choice.  The Buckeyes will be wearing the home Scarlet jerseys, but not the regular uniforms, but the alternate ones.   Why is this a big deal?   In the Buckeyes’ past 15 bowl appearance (tracking back to the 1997 Rose Bowl – Joe Germaine to David Boston with 19 seconds left), we have worn our away Whites 11 times (including 9 of the last 11 times).  The two times we wore Scarlet were the 2008 BCS game v. LSU (a 38-24 loss which was closer than the media would have you remember) and our 2004 Alamo Bowl win over Oklahoma State.  I don’t know why Tressel always preferred to go with White, but he did.  FYI – I could have gone back further but those numbers would have been skewed because Cooper lost virtually every bowl game early in his tenure.   If you want to know the complete history back to the 1984-85 Rose Bowl:

8-8 in White jerseys

3-5 in Scarlet jerseys

0-1   in unknown (1990 Liberty Bowl v. Air Force)

But I digress.  Urban will have the boys ready to play and I think the team will be highly motivated after that MSU loss.  The trouble is they are playing a very good (and healthy) Clemson team.  Taj Boyd is a really good passer and he has two excellent WRs.  NFL good.   Given our defensive, and especially secondary, woes, I fear it will be a very long night.

But that is my feeling, which is often times wrong.   This is Urban’s first bowl game for the Buckeyes.  He’s 7-1 in the bowls.  4-0 in BCS bowls (Fiesta, BCS, BCS, and Sugar).  He has Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde and a huge offensive line.  There are many reasons to be optimistic.   And, let us not forget that Clemson has a history of folding like a cheap chair if they get punched in the mouth and fall behind early.  

But, I cannot do it.  I see Boyd to Watkins over and over again in my sleep.   Sorry Buckeye fans, Schaef says:

Clemson 44, Ohio State 34.