As I write this on 13 January, 2014, Fulham sit in 16th place with 19 points and a league worst goal differential of -24. But there is some good news. If Arsenal defeat Aston Villa today, the bottom 11 teams of the EPL will be within six points of each other. In my limited experience for following Fulham (7 years) I cannot recall so many teams fighting to stay up. Usually, there is one team who was a lock for the Championship (Derby County, QPR) and 5 or 6 teams fighting not to finish either 18th or 19th. But this year the chasm has formed between 9th and 10th place, leaving all below to fight for survival.
I took a look at the remaining schedules to see if there was some clue as to what may happen the rest of the way. Truthfully, I was looking for a "silver lining" for all of Fulham's supporters - a statistical lifeline that we could collectively cling to. I am sorry to report that my findings were not what I had hoped.
With 17 matches remaining, each team from Hull and Aston Villa on down the table has either 8 or 9 at home and the other number on the road. More home games usually are beneficial to a team as some turn in Jekyll and Hyde performances depending upon the venue (e.g. Hull City: 18 points + 7 GD at home, 3 points, -7 GD away). While Fulham have been consistently poor in both locations, they have only 8 home matches versus 9 on the road.
I then looked at how many times each potential relegator plays a Top Nine team, and where they play them. Strike two to Fulham as we have to play all 9 of them (West Ham and Sunderland are the only other two that do). From this analysis, things look rosy for Hull City and Aston Villa. Hull only play 7 of the top 9 and they get 6 of the 7 at KC Stadium. Meanwhile, Villa get 8 of the 9, but 6 of them on the road where the Villains have been playing much better. Swansea, WBA, Stoke, and Crystal Palace also only have to play 7 of the 9.
What will be even worse for Fulham is that 8 of our next 10 are against Top Nine teams. So, we could be taking a beating for the next two months without much to show for it in the way of points. But that also means that 5 of our last 6 will be against bottom teams. We could make up ground at the end while teams like West Ham (who finish with 5 of 7 against top teams) could be dropping like a stone come springtime.
The end result of my review is that it looks like 6 teams fighting for 3 spots (15th, 16th and 17th, that is): Norwich City, Fulham, West Ham, Cardiff City, Sunderland, and Crystal Palace. All but Palace have 8 or 9 matches against the top nine. Cardiff and Sunderland play most of those on the road. While Norwich has 9 home matches remaining, 5 of them are against top nine clubs, with the others being Hull, Stoke, WBA, and Sunderland. With the Canaries being a -17 GD on the road, those home matches will be key and there does not appear to be many wins there.
My off the cuff run through of the rest of the season has Fulham going 3-7-7 for 35 points and I have them safe, only by virtue of winning on the last day at home v. Crystal Palace. I see Palace, Norwich, and Cardiff going down and the number to be safe being 32. In short, the next several months are going to be squeaky bum time for Fulham fans.
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