Cincinnati

I really don’t know how I feel about this one.

Honestly, 10 days ago I was certain UC would beat us. I watched them as they lit up Toledo and moved the ball so easily through the air.  QB Gunner Kiel is finally playing football and threw 6 TDs in his first game.  If you don’t know his story, as a high school senior he committed to Indiana.  Then changed his mind and committed to LSU.  But before signing day, he enrolled at Notre Dame.  He got beat out by both Everett Golson and Tommy Rees, so he transferred to Cincinnati and had to sit out the 2013 season.  His uncle, Blair Kiel, played QB at Notre Dame and his brother Dusty played QB at Indiana.

I really, really dislike the ESPN view that Cincinnati is a “ho-hum” game for the Buckeyes  http://espn.go.com/college-football/powerrankings

(the 22 year old intern who wrote that should be canned).  Over the past 7 seasons, UC has won 76 games and has a .731 winning percentage.  That puts them in the top 10 of all FBS schools.   They have former Ole Miss, Auburn, and Texas Tech coach Tommy Tuberville at the helm, and they played in 2 BCS bowls in the last 6 years.  This is not a football team just showing up to collect the $800,000 check from Gene Smith.

Now, as awesome as UC’s offense is (and by awesome I mean, well, awesome) they apparently suck on defense.  And by suck, I mean, well, they suck.  Pick a statistical category and you are likely to find the Bearcats at the bottom (106^th in Total D, 112^th in Pass efficiency, 113^th in 3^rd down conversion defense, etc., etc.).   Had they played Oregon and Florida State that would be one thing.  But they played Toledo and Miami (Ohio), both at home.  I think Tressel was still our coach the last time Miami won, yet they hung with the Bearcats until the very end last week.   So, who is Cincinnati?  Really?

 Vegas apparently does not think much of them because Ohio State is a 15.5 favorite.  I spit my bagel out all over my computer screen when I saw that.   The over/under is a surprisingly low 64.   Now, I know we brought in Chris Ash to revamp the defense, but I’m not sure the project is complete yet.   I think Cincinnati will spread us out and Kiel is good enough in only his 3^rd collegiate game to find the right receiver, no matter how much pressure we put on him.   I expect the Bearcats to score in the 30s.   I also expect their defense to give us chance after chance after chance to score as well.  The question for the Buckeyes are can they take advantage of those multiple opportunities and not shoot themselves in the foot.  Somewhere in the 4^th quarter, either the OSU offense will fail to convert a key 3^rd down or the Buckeye defense will rise up and stop the Bearcats.   One of those will decide the game.   15.5?  Waaaaay too much.  UC is 4-0 ATS as a road dog.  Under Tuberville they were 2-0 S/U as a road dog.  Take the Bearcats and the points and the over.  Set the DVR to record for at least 4 hours because this won’t be over until at least 10:00 p.m.  As for the final:

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Cincinnati 34.

Kent State

We won’t learn anything from this game.

Sure, Ohio State will win and win convincingly against Kent State and will likely cover the 32 point spread.  But the Golden Flashes are no measuring stick in any shape or form.   Kent State is 0-2 having lost at home to both Ohio and South Alabama.  The Golden Flashes are 2-23-1 in road openers and have lost 6 straight by an average of 28 ppg.   This team was supposed to be much improved off of their 4-8 season a year ago, but clearly there are problems – mostly on the offensive side.  The team has yet to rush for 100 yards total in 2 games.    Passing is not much better as Sophomore QB Colin Reardon’s QB ratings for the first two games have been 65.6 and 34.1 (contrast that to J.T. Barrett’s 84.8 and 26.7).    Their defense has not played that poorly but still has given up nearly 200 yards rushing per game.  I attribute that mostly to the fact that the offense cannot stay on the field.

Kent will watch the film of Va. Tech and realize that if they blitz Barrett they can force some errors.  However, the Golden Flashes DBs are not the same caliber as the Hokies.  Plus, I sincerely hope that the OSU coaching staff spent the week helping Barrett identify blitzes and practice throwing to the hot receiver.   On the other side of the ball, our 3^rd down defense must get better.  Given Kent State’s rushing woes, they should be looking at a lot of 3^rd and longs.   At that point, I expect our defense to look like Va. Tech and bring extra bodies to force early throws on 3^rd down, rather than sitting and letting Reardon find an open receiver.   Of course, with Noah Spence returning and the existing talent we have on the DL, we should (in theory) be able to overwhelm the young KSU OL by simply rushing four.

I expect our offense to run our typical sets with no special modifications for Kent.  This will be a glorified scrimmage for Barrett to get use to hot reads, slants, and shifting up into the pocket – all in preparation for Cincinnati in 2 weeks (FYI – the Bearcats still have not played a game and finally start their season this Saturday night).  Urban and Tom Herman will feature the running game and both Ezekiel Elliott and Curtis Samuel could top 100 yards.  Ohio State will win 51-10 and cover the 32 points.   But at the end of the day, Buckeye fans will have the same insecurities and uncertainties about this team.  Each and every positive will be met with a “Yeah, but . . . “ due to the opponent.  So take the Buckeyes, give the points, and bet the over (currently at 50.5).   After this, we will have 2 weeks to work out other kinks in preparation for Cincinnati, a game if it were being played this weekend would scare me to death.

Virginia Tech

“You are green, it is true. But they are green also.  You are all green alike.” – Abraham Lincoln to General Irvin McDowell, July 1861.

Virginia Tech may technically have 9 starters returning on offense, but it was the newcomers that made the biggest impression in their opening week win over William & Mary.   Texas Tech transfer (12) Michael Brewer started at QB and went a respectable 23-30-251 with 2 TDs and 1 INT.   Freshman RBs Shai McKenzie (22) and Marshawn Williams (42) were heavily involved, as McKenzie had 9 carries for 106 yards and 1 TD, while Williams went 12-41.    And Freshman TE Bucky Hodges (7) led all receivers with 6-38-1, and Freshman WR Isiah Ford (1) was next with 4-43-1.  Where the experience lined up for the Hokies was the offensive line which consists of 4 seniors and 1 sophomore.  We all know that the Buckeyes have their share of green players in QB J.T. Barrett, RB Curtis Samuel, a new OL, among others.

But when you think of Va. Tech, you should think of defense and special teams.  But both have been in decline the past two years and the overall record reflects that (7-6 in 2012, 8-5 in 2013).   Tech lost 5 of its top 9 tacklers from 2013 and returns only 5 starters.   They did limit William & Mary to 76 yards rushing and 117 passing, but then again, it was William & Mary.  The Hokies only led 20-9 with 4 minutes left in the 3^rd quarter before 2 late TDs stretched the margin to 34-9 and covering the 23.5 point spread.

The other thing you think of with Va. Tech is Lane Stadium and how intimidating a place it can be.  Thank god we are not there Saturday.  Instead, the Hokie youngsters get to come to the Shoe.  On a Saturday night.  Under Coach Frank Beamer, Va. Tech has not fared well v. AP Top Ten teams (3-11), nor when leaving campus (1-8).  Their only win over a top ten team in the past decade was over No. 10 Miami, but that was when Virginia Tech was No. 9.    In fact, most of Virginia Tech’s true road games at top ten opponents have involved Miami, Fla.    They did play at LSU in 2007 and got scorched 48-7, but then you have to go all the way back to 1992 when they played at No. 10 Syracuse.   What I am saying is that even when Virginia Tech was a top ten powerhouse, they did not do so well v. highly ranked opponents – named Miami or otherwise – away from Blacksburg.

Under Tressel, the Buckeyes used to experience a 2^nd game let down, but that seems to be cured under Meyer.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has struggled mightily lately in their first road game after easy home wins.

The line is Ohio State -11.   Urban is 15-0 at home.  Two blowout wins (Nebraska 63-38 and Penn State 63-14) have come at home at night.  Even the 2013 Wisconsin game we were up 31-14 through 3 quarters and still covered the spread.  Va. Tech won’t run the triple option, so our run defense should look a lot better.  They will throw though, so our secondary will finally get tested.  But Ohio Stadium holds 40,000 more than Lane Stadium, and the fans will be loud – drunk, and loud.    

Prediction:  Ohio State 44, Virginia Tech 24.