Cincinnati

I really don’t know how I feel about this one.

Honestly, 10 days ago I was certain UC would beat us. I watched them as they lit up Toledo and moved the ball so easily through the air.  QB Gunner Kiel is finally playing football and threw 6 TDs in his first game.  If you don’t know his story, as a high school senior he committed to Indiana.  Then changed his mind and committed to LSU.  But before signing day, he enrolled at Notre Dame.  He got beat out by both Everett Golson and Tommy Rees, so he transferred to Cincinnati and had to sit out the 2013 season.  His uncle, Blair Kiel, played QB at Notre Dame and his brother Dusty played QB at Indiana.

I really, really dislike the ESPN view that Cincinnati is a “ho-hum” game for the Buckeyes  http://espn.go.com/college-football/powerrankings

(the 22 year old intern who wrote that should be canned).  Over the past 7 seasons, UC has won 76 games and has a .731 winning percentage.  That puts them in the top 10 of all FBS schools.   They have former Ole Miss, Auburn, and Texas Tech coach Tommy Tuberville at the helm, and they played in 2 BCS bowls in the last 6 years.  This is not a football team just showing up to collect the $800,000 check from Gene Smith.

Now, as awesome as UC’s offense is (and by awesome I mean, well, awesome) they apparently suck on defense.  And by suck, I mean, well, they suck.  Pick a statistical category and you are likely to find the Bearcats at the bottom (106^th in Total D, 112^th in Pass efficiency, 113^th in 3^rd down conversion defense, etc., etc.).   Had they played Oregon and Florida State that would be one thing.  But they played Toledo and Miami (Ohio), both at home.  I think Tressel was still our coach the last time Miami won, yet they hung with the Bearcats until the very end last week.   So, who is Cincinnati?  Really?

 Vegas apparently does not think much of them because Ohio State is a 15.5 favorite.  I spit my bagel out all over my computer screen when I saw that.   The over/under is a surprisingly low 64.   Now, I know we brought in Chris Ash to revamp the defense, but I’m not sure the project is complete yet.   I think Cincinnati will spread us out and Kiel is good enough in only his 3^rd collegiate game to find the right receiver, no matter how much pressure we put on him.   I expect the Bearcats to score in the 30s.   I also expect their defense to give us chance after chance after chance to score as well.  The question for the Buckeyes are can they take advantage of those multiple opportunities and not shoot themselves in the foot.  Somewhere in the 4^th quarter, either the OSU offense will fail to convert a key 3^rd down or the Buckeye defense will rise up and stop the Bearcats.   One of those will decide the game.   15.5?  Waaaaay too much.  UC is 4-0 ATS as a road dog.  Under Tuberville they were 2-0 S/U as a road dog.  Take the Bearcats and the points and the over.  Set the DVR to record for at least 4 hours because this won’t be over until at least 10:00 p.m.  As for the final:

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Cincinnati 34.