I knew there was something about Tulsa, but I could not
figure it out until today. It’s this
guy, who ran their program from 1977-1984. Good times. Good
times.
Some random facts about Tulsa (*from the University’s “Game
Notes”):
TULSA IS THE
SMALLEST FBS SCHOOL . . .
Rk School
Undergrad Enrollment
1. Tulsa
3,473
2. Rice
3,926
3. Air Force
3,952
4. Navy
4,511
5. Army
4,414 [sic – not my list,
it is theirs]
6. Wake Forest
4,867
The
TULSA Key:
We are . .
. The University of Tulsa, not Tulsa University
(Chip, meet shoulder)
We are . .
. TU, not UT
(Explain
this to older University of Toledo fans/grads)
We are . . . the Golden Hurricane, not the Hurricanes
(Duly noted. You
are not Miami).
First, I hope you all caught my footnote to last week’s
prediction that the forecast was for the 1st half only. If you
doubled it (as you should have done) my prediction was 72-34 which was must
closer to what actually happened. Seriously, though, who could have
seen that coming? I would like to say that I think it’s time for
Matt Millen to retire from the broadcast booth. What do you say to that Matt?
Good, I’m glad that is settled.
Since the end result of this game is not in question (Tulsa is
like playing Purdue or Rutgers), let’s discuss how to play it. Bill,
look away.
As you know, Ohio State has a love-hate relationship with
Week 2. In the Urban Meyer era, when Ohio State has covered in Week One,
the Buckeyes are 0-3 ATS in Week 2. This is not a situation solely of
Meyer’s making. Six times in nine years, the Senator and Fickell failed
to cover in Week 2 after covering in Week 1. This stat causes me great
angst. Add to that fact that we are favored by 28.5 and Urban is 7-9
ATS in games OSU is a 25+ point favorite, including 0-5 in the last 5.
Tulsa, meanwhile, is 3-18 S/U in road openers and 0-12 S/U
against ranked opponents. More important to our discussion, Tulsa is 7-2
ATS as a road dog the last 2 years, including covering at Oklahoma in 2015 when
getting 30.5 (final 38-52). All signs point to a Golden Hurricane cover
of the spread.
But what if we factor in that we have a brand new bunch of
players, hungry to play and to prove themselves. And then factor in
that Tulsa’s defense is bad. Scary bad. Really, scary bad.
Would that be enough to
change the outcome?
Tulsa does have a potent, high tempo offense. Prior to his
arrival, HC Philip Montgomery was OC at Baylor for 7 years under Art Briles and
we know what the Bears have done recently. Senior QB Dane Evans (9) has
started 31 games. RB D’Angelo Brewer (4) is only 5’9” but ran for 164
last week. Sr WR Keevan Lucas (2) returns after being out injured much of
2015, and has 165 career rec, for 17 TDs and 2,182 yards. Those are
three very good weapons. Tulsa averaged 37 ppg on offense and ran
the 3rd most plays in 2015. But the OL? Not that
strong. Rated T-11th out of 12 teams in the AAC (that’s code
for last place). Also, they allowed 41 sacks last year.
Let’s look closer at Tulsa’s defense.
The Golden Hurricane gave up 471 points two seasons ago. That’s
39.25/game. Last year, they allowed 463 in the regular season, but
got invited to a bowl game where they surrendered 55 to Va. Tech.
So, 518/13 equals 39.84. According to Phil Steele, their losses on
the DL “are more significant” than in 2014. And let me remind you,
the AAC is not
exactly the toughest competition.
And add to the mix that we have Oklahoma next week. Do
we show them anything on film? Do we save something for them that they
won’t know is coming?
Bottom line: I probably have better luck picking the
spot in my bedroom where my cat will puke next than I have saying how this
bunch of 18-20 years old will react this week. However, I don’t think
Urban cares what he shows the Sooners on film. I think he still needs to
find out who can do what job and what weapons he has at his disposal. So,
I expect everyone to play and I expect virtually every play in JT’s playbook to
be run. I also think Meyer will drill into these guys’ heads that just
because they unloaded on BG that they better not expect each week to be a
cakewalk. He will get after these guys to try and duplicate the
performance. Tulsa may have better offensive weapons than the
Falcons, but our defense did a pretty good job shutting down the fast-paced
spread offense, and we have faced many of them the past 2 years. We
should be able to contain the Golden Hurricane. Tulsa will score
more than 10, but not much, mainly because of OL issues. Meanwhile, their
defense will be exhausted and gutted. The over/under has shot up from
67.5 to 73.5. That’s a huge number, but Vegas knows. I’m going to
be bold and say the Week 2 jinxes are in the past.
Schaef Says: Ohio State 63, Tulsa 17.
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