Penn State

Oh, if it’s Penn State week then you know this about the Nittany Lions.  Unless I’m wrong, this will be the sixth consecutive 8 p.m. kickoff for this matchup. We get Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit again, but this week they better have a lot more filler material.

Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy.  When James Franklin came to Happy Valley – PSU fans were all giddy and saying things like this.  Welp, Coach is 18-14 at PSU to date and his signature win at PSU is . . . Rutgers?  Illinois?  Akron?.  Seriously, I don’t think the Nittany Lions have beaten a team that has won 8 games in season the last few years.  Franklin is 0-9 v. Top 10 teams, and 1-14 v. Top 25 teams dating back to his years at Vanderbilt.   Penn State played Xichigan earlier this year and it was, well, not pretty.

The Buckeyes have won the last 4 in the series and the last 4 in State College.  We all remember the one from 2 years ago in which Ohio State blew a 17 point halftime lead, the game went to overtime and then Joey Bosa found a new use for the fullback.  The important thing to remember about that game was the Penn State was No. 1 in the Nation in Rushing Defense, No. 6 in Total Defense, and No. 6 in Scoring Defense going into the match.  They were very, very good defensively.  This year’s squad?  Try, 103^rd v. the run.  To be fair, the Nittany Lions have played some stellar competition, including Kent State, Temple, Minnesota, and Maryland.  #sarcasm. 

On offense they still have Soph. RB Saquon Barkley (26) who ran for 195 against us last year.  And Soph. QB Trace McSorley (9) has shown flashes of, well, not brilliance, but capability.  But in looking at the stats, you wonder how they have done anything this year?  123^rd in 3^rd down conversions, 102^nd in 1^st downs, 105^th in time of possession.   And even with Barkley in the backfield they are 88^th in rushing offense.   It seems they can put together 1 or 2 sustained drives per game then they hope for a turnover, punt return, or shanked punt on the other side to give them field position.

Vegas has the Buckeyes as a 19.5 point favorite with the over/under at 58.   Weather in Happy Valley should be mid-40s, cloudy, and windy.  The weather conditions, our running capabilities, and Penn State’s porous run defense seem to set up a perfect situation where the Buckeyes pound it 50 times for 330 yards on the ground.  J.T. Barrett will have to throw a little to keep the Nittany Lions honest, but I think we will spread them out and do a ton of zone reads and bubble screens.  Like Wisconsin, Penn State has had a week off, but unlike the Badgers, PSU is 0-5 following a bye.   Will the Buckeyes be a little slow to get started after last week’s emotional win?  I don’t think so.  The White Out will get our squad ready.   One stat will have to give in this matchup:  Penn State scores more point progressively each quarter, while the Buckeyes shut down opponents as the game goes on (see below):

                      1^st  2^nd   3^rd   4^th   OT                               1^st   2^nd     3^rd  4^th   OT

Penn State    34   44   47   52      6                Ohio State    50   100    77   62   7

Opponents    48   58   21   41      3                Opponents   30    26      14     7   0

Penn State, we know Wisconsin.  We played Wisconsin.  You are no Wisconsin.  I think Ohio State enjoys great success running.  I do not think PSU will do likewise.  We will force McSorley to throw and the secondary will get at least two picks.   I like the Buckeyes to show no ill effects from the Badger game.   I like Ohio State to win and cover.

Schaef says:   Ohio State 49, Penn State 17.  

Wisconsin

Man, almost every sign points to this being a very bad weekend. 

The Badgers are 7-2 at home in Top 10 matchups, including winning the last 6 in a row.  Wisconsin is 6-0 following a loss and 8-1 coming off a bye.  While Ohio State is 5-2 at Camp Randall stadium, the Buckeyes are 1-2 in the last 3 night games played there.

Oh, and the Badgers have the revenge factor going for them since the last time we played the score was 59-0.

The Badgers have already beaten LSU and MSU, and played UM very close in AA.  Meanwhile, after steamrolling through our first 4, we looked shaky at home v. Indiana.  Vegas has the Buckeyes a 10 point favorite with the O/U at 44.  With the weather to be a bit breezy with a chance of T-storms, everything screams "take the Badgers and the points!!!"   But should we?

Is the Badger D good?  The answer:  Yes.  6th in Rush D (90.4/g), 4th is Scoring D (12.2/g), and 5th in 3rd Down Conversion D (.230).  It's tough to run on them, tough to keep drives going, and tough to score on them.  But have they played anyone with an offense that is as potent as ours?  No.   Even with last week's dismal performance v. Indiana, our Total Offense is ranked 5th at 537.6 ypg.   By comparison, Wisconsin's opponents have been ranked 35, 68, 79, 102, and 125 in total offense.  Is that because they played Wisconsin or because they are not that good?   Upon closer examination, the Badgers' passing defense is average - 35th and giving up 201 ypg.  So the passing offense statistics for their opponents should not have suffered greatly in facing the Badgers.  But the Passing Off of Wisky's opponents?  29 (Akron), 77 (Ga. State), 84 (Michigan), 86 (MSU), and 112 (LSU).  So, it appears that either Wisconsin did not have to worry about the pass and could focus on stopping the run.  Or, when Wisconsin shut down the run, these teams had difficulty converting through the air.

Ohio State was rolling through the air until last week's 90 yard performance (we fell from 58th to 85th).  Even so, we are still 3rd in Rush O (323.6), 5th in Total O (537.6), and 3rd in Scoring O (53.2).  The Badgers have yet to see anything like us.  

Wisconsin's offense is opportunistic, but that's about it.  They are now starting a largely immobile Redshirt Freshman at QB behind an offensive line that consists of 4 Sophomores and 1 Junior.   They are 78th in Rushing O (161.6), 97th in Passing O (198.6), 106th in Total O (360.2), and 88th in Scoring O (26.0).  They are 38th in Sacks allowed and 56th in turnover margin.  

The way the Badgers want to win is the Jim Tressel way - win field position, take advantage of a turnover for a short field, and win time of possession.  Ohio State, however, is better than the Badgers in each of those categories.  Ohio State is 2nd in Net Punting (46.71) v. Wisconsin who is 116th (33.91).   Ohio State is 4th in turnover margin with +8 on the year, v. Wisconsin who is at 0.  And the Buckeyes hold the ball for an average of 36 minutes per game v. the Badgers 34.   

This will be a slugfest and Cameron Johnston will have to punt more than normal.  However, I think he pins Wisconsin deep repeatedly and we force 3 and outs which will give us the shorter field.   J.T. may throw a pick and/or we may allow a KO return for a TD which will make the game closer.  But I think Greg Schiano will have our D dialed in to shut down the Badger offense, and I think we have too many weapons, too much speed, and a more difficult offense to defend than Wisconsin is used to.  So, I'm not doubting these Buckeyes.   i think you give the points.   Given the iffy weather, I'd stay away from the O/U, but if pressed, go with the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 10.