Penn State

Oh, if it’s Penn State week then you know this about the Nittany Lions.  Unless I’m wrong, this will be the sixth consecutive 8 p.m. kickoff for this matchup. We get Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit again, but this week they better have a lot more filler material.

Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy.  When James Franklin came to Happy Valley – PSU fans were all giddy and saying things like this.  Welp, Coach is 18-14 at PSU to date and his signature win at PSU is . . . Rutgers?  Illinois?  Akron?.  Seriously, I don’t think the Nittany Lions have beaten a team that has won 8 games in season the last few years.  Franklin is 0-9 v. Top 10 teams, and 1-14 v. Top 25 teams dating back to his years at Vanderbilt.   Penn State played Xichigan earlier this year and it was, well, not pretty.

The Buckeyes have won the last 4 in the series and the last 4 in State College.  We all remember the one from 2 years ago in which Ohio State blew a 17 point halftime lead, the game went to overtime and then Joey Bosa found a new use for the fullback.  The important thing to remember about that game was the Penn State was No. 1 in the Nation in Rushing Defense, No. 6 in Total Defense, and No. 6 in Scoring Defense going into the match.  They were very, very good defensively.  This year’s squad?  Try, 103^rd v. the run.  To be fair, the Nittany Lions have played some stellar competition, including Kent State, Temple, Minnesota, and Maryland.  #sarcasm. 

On offense they still have Soph. RB Saquon Barkley (26) who ran for 195 against us last year.  And Soph. QB Trace McSorley (9) has shown flashes of, well, not brilliance, but capability.  But in looking at the stats, you wonder how they have done anything this year?  123^rd in 3^rd down conversions, 102^nd in 1^st downs, 105^th in time of possession.   And even with Barkley in the backfield they are 88^th in rushing offense.   It seems they can put together 1 or 2 sustained drives per game then they hope for a turnover, punt return, or shanked punt on the other side to give them field position.

Vegas has the Buckeyes as a 19.5 point favorite with the over/under at 58.   Weather in Happy Valley should be mid-40s, cloudy, and windy.  The weather conditions, our running capabilities, and Penn State’s porous run defense seem to set up a perfect situation where the Buckeyes pound it 50 times for 330 yards on the ground.  J.T. Barrett will have to throw a little to keep the Nittany Lions honest, but I think we will spread them out and do a ton of zone reads and bubble screens.  Like Wisconsin, Penn State has had a week off, but unlike the Badgers, PSU is 0-5 following a bye.   Will the Buckeyes be a little slow to get started after last week’s emotional win?  I don’t think so.  The White Out will get our squad ready.   One stat will have to give in this matchup:  Penn State scores more point progressively each quarter, while the Buckeyes shut down opponents as the game goes on (see below):

                      1^st  2^nd   3^rd   4^th   OT                               1^st   2^nd     3^rd  4^th   OT

Penn State    34   44   47   52      6                Ohio State    50   100    77   62   7

Opponents    48   58   21   41      3                Opponents   30    26      14     7   0

Penn State, we know Wisconsin.  We played Wisconsin.  You are no Wisconsin.  I think Ohio State enjoys great success running.  I do not think PSU will do likewise.  We will force McSorley to throw and the secondary will get at least two picks.   I like the Buckeyes to show no ill effects from the Badger game.   I like Ohio State to win and cover.

Schaef says:   Ohio State 49, Penn State 17.