Penn State

Don't worry.  I'm not going to leave you hanging.  And speaking of cold, welcome "fall" to Ohio.  And by "fall" I mean winter.  46 and rain at kickoff and otherwise just an ugly day.  Kind of brings back memories of a certain windmill kicker. Yeah, I hate that guy.  But I'll get back to the revenge (and to MSU) later.

You may recall I had a bad feeling about Oklahoma.  I literally said it over and over, like this.  And despite that feeling, I talked myself out of picking Oklahoma to beat us.  Well, I had a bad feeling about Penn State too.  I mean, they are No. 2 in the nation. They have the No. 1 scoring defense. They are No. 2 in turnover margin and No. 6 in fewest penalties committed.  They have a mobile, dangerous QB and a Heisman candidate RB on offense, and an extremely stingy defense.  They are outscoring opponents 90-0 in the 1st quarter so far this year.  Michigan's defense was supposed to be great and Penn State put up 42 on them.  You should also know that this will be the 8th time where both schools are ranked in the Top Ten.  The 3 other times Penn State has been ranked higher than Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have won.  To add insult to injury, two of those 3 wins occurred in Columbus.  Meanwhile, the only team with a heartbeat that we've really played - one that also had a very mobile QB - skewered us to the tune of 31-16.  Mindset (heavy on the sarcasm).

Looking for a silver lining, I noted this game is at 3:30, not 8:00 p.m. because of the World Series.  At first, I thought that was a blessing. Urban Meyer has lost 7 games while at The Ohio State University.  6 of those kicked off at 8:00 p.m.  He is undefeated at Noon.  He's only lost one that kicked off at 3:30.  But then I remembered that the ONE was MSU in 2015.  And, yes, the weather on Saturday will be just like MSU in 2015. (But not for me because I'll be at EPCOT in Orlando on a whirlwind 48 hour trip to WDW to celebrate my son's birthday, but I digress).  Put it all together and I went all Captain Brody on my stuff. Then,

I said to myself, "Self, let's look at Penn State's opponents."  Here's a quick chart:

Opponent                    Record                  Total Offense Rank      Scoring Offense Rank

Akron                            4-4                                117                            102

Pittsburgh                     3-5                                  93                              98

Georgia State                3-3                                 85                             114

Iowa                              4-3                                104                              81

Indiana                          3-4                                  95                              89

Northwestern                4-3                                  74                              83

Michigan                       5-2                                  98                              90

Not exactly "elite" teams.  Not exactly "elite" offenses. Maybe it's easy to be No. 1 in scoring defense when you play a schedule like this. (Note - Indiana that PSU faced was much different than the one the Buckeyes faced in Week 1. Total change at QB).  So, maybe we should not be so critical of Ohio State's improved performance facing less than stellar talent because everyone is raving about how great PSU is while facing a similar schedule.

"But the Nittany Lions have Trace McSorley at QB.  He's so dangerous!" (my internal monologue).   McSorley completes 66.8% of his passes.  He has 8.54 ypa (yards per attempt) and has thrown 14 TDs v. 5 INTs.  J.T. Barrett, on the other hand, completes 66% of his passes, has a 9.7 ypa, and has thrown 20 TDs v. 1 INT.  Let that sink in for a second.  And if you want to compare running ability?   McSorley 3.1 yards/rush v. Barrett 6.5 yards/rush.

"And the media loves Saquon Barkley.  He's the Heisman front runner." (yes, I talk to myself. A lot).  Well, Barkley has 757 yards on 117 rushes.  J.K. Dobbins has 775 yards on 100 rushes.

So, what's my point?  Maybe Penn State isn't all that great.  Or, maybe Ohio State is just as good, if not better, than Penn State.  

Anyway, I promised to get back to revenge and MSU.

Urban Meyer is 45-4 in his career with more than 1 week to prepare for an opponent.  He is 19-1 in October at Ohio State.  As our coach, he has never had 2 losses in a season before December 31.  And he is 3-0 in "revenge" games (games in which he plays an opponent the next season after a loss).  Spoiler alert:  we lost to Penn State in 2016.

As for MSU references?  Well, I am thinking about a game v. Sparty, but it's not the 2015 debacle in the Shoe.  Rather it's the 2014 matchup in East Lansing.  Buckeyes suffered an early season loss at home, and had put together a mild win streak v. weaker opponents.  Michigan State was higher ranked and had beat Urban in the B1G championship the year before, so it was a revenge game.  Michigan State had a tremendous defense with gaudy statistics.  And the weather was a lousy 39 degrees and overcast.  At the time, who could blame me for being negative?

But then the unexpected happened.  Ohio State's offense continued it's dominance over a defense that was supposed to stop it.  Rather than a lower scoring slugfest, we saw more of a track meet.  The teams combined for 86 points while the pre-game O/U was 57.5. The Buckeyes put 49 on the mighty MSU and won by 12. J.T. was dropping dimes and running free.

My message to you for this weekend - expect the unexpected.

Ohio State opened up as a 7.5 favorite.  I was shocked.   The line has come down now to 6.5, meaning people are betting on Penn State and taking the points.  I thought that was the very smart move.  Then, I started seeing little hints here and there that the sharks are going to take the Buckeyes and give the points.  Maybe that's "#fakenews" but maybe not.

Call me crazy, call me delusional, but I feel very confident that this will be a game none of us expected.  Except me, because I'm telling you now what I expect.  No low scoring slugfest.  No Ohio State boondoggle on offense.  No Saquon Barkley Heisman capping performance.  Take the Buckeyes, give the 6.5 and bet the over (54.5).

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 42, Penn State 27.

Bye Week Predictions

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It's bye week people!  I hate bye weeks.  I know they make sense to get the players healthy, add suspense to the season, blah, blah, blah fishcakes.  A week without Ohio State football is 7 days too long. So, I will look at other B1G games and games of interest to help get us through until Penn State on October 28.

Disclaimer - while on occasion I am scary good at predicting Ohio State scores, on these others, ehhhhh, not so much.  That being said, here we go.

Iowa (4-2) at Northwestern (3-3):  Iowa - 1.5
Who you should root for:  Iowa. We play them. I want them to have a good record.
Who you should bet on: Iowa. N'western has been a disappointment and Iowa is 9-2 in their last 11 Big Ten road games.

Purdue (3-3) at Rutgers (2-4):  Purdue - 9
Who you should root for: Rutgers. Purdue is not on our schedule.
Who you should bet on: Rutgers. Can Rutgers make it 2 consecutive wins in B1G after going 0-9 last year? No, but Purdue hasn't beaten a B1G opponent on the road (except Illinois) since 2012.

Maryland (3-3) at Wisconsin (6-0):  Wisconsin - 24
Who you should root for:  Wisconsin.  Having them unbeaten in B1G Championship would be good for us.
Who you should bet on: Wisconsin. They have been inconsistent, but will wear Maryland out.

Indiana (3-3) at Michigan State (5-1):  Michigan State - 6.5
Who you should root for: MSU. Might as well have them highly ranked when they come to the Shoe.
Who you should bet on: MSU. They have a history of handling Indiana in East Lansing and should roll.

Illinois (2-4) at Minnesota (3-3):  Minnesota - 14
Who you should root for:  Don't care.
Who you should bet on:  Illinois.  They stink but Minnesota has had 4 of 6 decided by 14 or less. This one will be within that too.

Michigan (5-1) at Penn State (6-0):  Penn State - 9.5
Who you should root for:  I cannot root for UM. I cannot advise you to root for UM.  And, it is likely in Ohio State's best interest to have Penn State unbeaten next week.
Who you should bet on:  Never bet a Michigan game.  Never, ever, never, ever.  They will always disappoint you. But if you feel so compelled, take the Wolverines and the points because their defense will keep this close and low scoring.  Harbaugh is 8-3 on the road S/U and 5-5-1 ATS.  PSU is 17-1 in their last 18 home games, but 12-6 ATS. Too much uncertainty.  My gut tells me it is a 20-14 bloodbath.

Some others:

USC (6-1) at Notre Dame (5-1):  Notre Dame - 3.5
Who you should root for:  Notre Dame. I don't think a one loss Irish leaps over us, but I fear if USC runs the table, they could.
Who you should bet on:  USC.  They may win outright. If they lose, it will probably be by a FG.

Tennessee (3-3) at Alabama (7-0): Alabama - 36
Who you should root for:  Tennessee.  It would be hilarious if it happened.
Who you should bet on:  Bama.  The Vols are a dumpster fire.

Kansas (1-5) at TCU (6-0):  TCU - 37.5
Who you should root for:  Kansas.  Ain't gonna happen but you can try.
Who you should bet on:  Kansas.  It's a huge spread in a matchup that TCU has had difficulty winning, let alone covering.  TCU's last five wins by an average of 7 points.

Oklahoma State (5-1) at Texas (3-3):  Oklahoma State - 7
Who you should root for:  Texas.  Need the Big 12 to eliminate themselves.
Who you should bet on:  Texas.  Longhorns are 18-1 in the games immediately following the Red River Shootout.  Expect something unexpected.

Syracuse (4-3) at Miami, Fla. (5-0):  Miami - 16.5
Who you should root for:  Syracuse.  Never, ever root for the Canes.
Who you should bet on:  Miami.  Yes, they have barely won the last 2 weeks, but Syracuse will be hung over after their upset of Clemson.  Miami will beat them up.

Nebraska

This is Mike Riley.  Mike is a "Dead Coach Walking." The AD that hired him without really interviewing anyone else has been sacked, the team is mired in mediocrity, and Coach has no real support in the Administration.  Other than that, life is fine.

Do you remember 2011?  Here's a history refresher.  My memory of this night is that I went to bed at the 2:00 mark of this video (halftime).  Believe it or not, 6 years ago I did not yet have a smartphone, I had a Blackberry, so I couldn't check the score when I got up that morning.  I don't think we even had a DVR yet, so I was videotaping all the games. I went downstairs, watched us go up 27-6, happily ate my Crispix, and then . . . 

Strange things happen at night, but I don't think this episode will repeat for three reasons: (1) Urban Meyer won't allow it; (2) This time we are ranked and the Huskers are not; and (3) that 2011 team was not talented enough to overcome the loss of Braxton.

Plus, as noted above, things are looking bleak in Lincoln.  Not as bleak as Bruce Springsteen's account of Charlie Starkweather, but well on their way.  The Huskers barely beat the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Week 1.  That close call was not an aberration as Nebraska then lost at Oregon and at home to Northern Illinois.  From the MAC.  The Huskers did beat Rutgers at home by 10.  You may recall we beat Rutgers by 56 on the road. After a win at Illinois, Nebraska lost by 21 to Wisconsin in Lincoln.  If we win Saturday night, it would be the Huskers 3rd home loss of the season - an event that has not occurred since . . . 2015, Mike Riley's first season as coach.

This is only the 3rd meeting between the schools since that 2011 fiasco.  Urban won both of those games by scores of 63-38 and 62-3.  Given the way both our offense and defense have been looking, and the problems Nebraska is having, the score should be similar.

But here comes Vegas with Ohio State only being favored by 24 with an over/under of 58.  What gives?  Statistically, Nebraska's offense will have difficulty scoring on us, and their defense doesn't show anything that would indicate they could stop the Buckeyes.  Now, the Huskers are 46-6 in home night games and had a 20 game win streak snapped by Wisconsin last week, so maybe the sharks think Nebraska will play above their level.  Don't buy it.  Here's what you need to know:  Nebraska has made great adjustments at halftime, but Ohio State is outscoring its opponents 60-14 in the first quarter, while Nebraska is being outscored 38-66.  The 2nd quarter doesn't get any better for the Huskers.  This game SHOULD be over after 30 minutes and it won't matter what adjustments are made.  The Buckeyes on the road under Meyer have been terrific and I think they will be again this Saturday.  I'm giving the points and taking the over.

And now, I'd like to conclude this blog with a hymn.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 56, Nebraska 17. (Season 5-1 S/U, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 on O/U).

Maryland

Time is flying.  This is game 6 in a 12 game regular season schedule.  

This one is a tough one. In the immortal words of Farrokh Bulsara, I got no feel, I got no rhythm for this one.

Virtually everything tells me that I should take Maryland and the 31 points Vegas is offering this Saturday.

1. The Terrapins are 2-0 S/U and 2-0 ATS on the road in 2017.  Saturday's game is in Columbus.

2. Maryland won 51-41 at Texas in Week 1 and 31-24 at Minnesota last week.

3. In 2016, Maryland was a 31.5 dog at the Shoe and covered in a 49-28 loss (a game that was tied at 21-21 in the 3rd quarter).

4. The Buckeyes under Urban Meyer are 4-10 ATS when favored by 30+.  

5. The Buckeyes are 0-3 ATS in the Shoe in 2017.

6. Maryland's offense is averaging 38.80 points per game.

7. Maryland's rushing offense and rushing defense are statistically equal to Ohio State's.

8. The Terrapins defense has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in eight (8) consecutive games.

All of this just makes me think the 31 points are too rich.  But then there's a small part that thinking:

Maryland is on their 3rd string QB. Spare me the 2014 references to Ohio State - it's not the same. Terrell Pigrome started at Texas but got injured.  He's out for the year. Kasim Hill replaced him but got injured in the 3rd game.  He's out for the year. So, Sophomore Max Bortenschlager (18) takes over.  He's not supposed to run much.  He's probably not going to pass too much.  He's going to manage the game and occasionally throw to Jr. WR DJ Moore (1) who has a very impressive 30 catches for 403 yards and 5 TDs so far.   Most of the time, Maryland is going to run Jr. RB Ty Johnson (6) and Soph. RB Lorenzo Harrison (2).  Their OL is experienced, they don't turn the ball over, they don't give up that many sacks, and I think they can score.

Their defense is a bit of a mess though. Although they haven't given up 100 yards to a single rusher, they let UCF run for 250 yards against them. They allow teams to convert almost 50% of 3rd downs.  And while the offense scores 38.8 ppg, the defense gives up 30/game.

If I were a betting man, I think I would stay away from the spread on this one and probably just bet the over (58.5).  I would do that because either (a) Ohio State will crush Maryland and put up 50 or more themselves or (b) Maryland will put up a fight and score enough to put the point total over.  But this is my preview and I tell you what I think will happen so I have to take a stand.  That stand by the way is 5-0 ATS so far and 3-2 on the over/under.  Now with that "humble brag" out of the way, I've most assuredly doomed this prediction to fail.

I think Maryland's offense is one dimensional and their 3rd string QB may be in for a long day.  Their defense is not that good. We seem to be clicking and we should have a big day. Yet, we are still undisciplined [read: 113th in penalty yards per game. Yikes!] and guys are not playing up to levels we have seen from them before [example: Jerome Baker].

Buckeye Breakdown: LB: Could Less Lead To More? Ohio State LB have found themselves out of position at times during the 2017 season partly due to their speed, a...

So, I fall back on the most illogical thing I can find to make my pick. In Week 1, I told you to give the points. In Week 2, I told you to take them. Then give, then take, and then give last week.  Take is up, so take I will, but with almost no confidence.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 45, Maryland 20.