Time is flying. This is game 6 in a 12 game regular season schedule.
This one is a tough one. In the immortal words of Farrokh Bulsara, I got no feel, I got no rhythm for this one.
Virtually everything tells me that I should take Maryland and the 31 points Vegas is offering this Saturday.
1. The Terrapins are 2-0 S/U and 2-0 ATS on the road in 2017. Saturday's game is in Columbus.
2. Maryland won 51-41 at Texas in Week 1 and 31-24 at Minnesota last week.
3. In 2016, Maryland was a 31.5 dog at the Shoe and covered in a 49-28 loss (a game that was tied at 21-21 in the 3rd quarter).
4. The Buckeyes under Urban Meyer are 4-10 ATS when favored by 30+.
5. The Buckeyes are 0-3 ATS in the Shoe in 2017.
6. Maryland's offense is averaging 38.80 points per game.
7. Maryland's rushing offense and rushing defense are statistically equal to Ohio State's.
8. The Terrapins defense has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in eight (8) consecutive games.
All of this just makes me think the 31 points are too rich. But then there's a small part that thinking:
Maryland is on their 3rd string QB. Spare me the 2014 references to Ohio State - it's not the same. Terrell Pigrome started at Texas but got injured. He's out for the year. Kasim Hill replaced him but got injured in the 3rd game. He's out for the year. So, Sophomore Max Bortenschlager (18) takes over. He's not supposed to run much. He's probably not going to pass too much. He's going to manage the game and occasionally throw to Jr. WR DJ Moore (1) who has a very impressive 30 catches for 403 yards and 5 TDs so far. Most of the time, Maryland is going to run Jr. RB Ty Johnson (6) and Soph. RB Lorenzo Harrison (2). Their OL is experienced, they don't turn the ball over, they don't give up that many sacks, and I think they can score.
Their defense is a bit of a mess though. Although they haven't given up 100 yards to a single rusher, they let UCF run for 250 yards against them. They allow teams to convert almost 50% of 3rd downs. And while the offense scores 38.8 ppg, the defense gives up 30/game.
If I were a betting man, I think I would stay away from the spread on this one and probably just bet the over (58.5). I would do that because either (a) Ohio State will crush Maryland and put up 50 or more themselves or (b) Maryland will put up a fight and score enough to put the point total over. But this is my preview and I tell you what I think will happen so I have to take a stand. That stand by the way is 5-0 ATS so far and 3-2 on the over/under. Now with that "humble brag" out of the way, I've most assuredly doomed this prediction to fail.
I think Maryland's offense is one dimensional and their 3rd string QB may be in for a long day. Their defense is not that good. We seem to be clicking and we should have a big day. Yet, we are still undisciplined [read: 113th in penalty yards per game. Yikes!] and guys are not playing up to levels we have seen from them before [example: Jerome Baker].
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So, I fall back on the most illogical thing I can find to make my pick. In Week 1, I told you to give the points. In Week 2, I told you to take them. Then give, then take, and then give last week. Take is up, so take I will, but with almost no confidence.
Schaef Says: Ohio State 45, Maryland 20.
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