Illinois

Ohio State making the CFP?

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Here's the quick and dirty (which will probably really turn out to be slow and painful):

Alabama wins out.  In doing so, they beat Auburn (giving them 3 losses) and Georgia (giving them 2).  Auburn and Georgia are eliminated.

Miami wins out.  In doing so, they beat Clemson (giving them 2 losses).   Now, while Clemson may have better wins and not terribly egregious losses, the committee has revamped the rules to place "special emphasis" on conference championships.  Clemson won't have one.  Bye-bye.

Oklahoma wins out.  It doesn't eliminate anyone but takes away the committee having to decide between a 2 loss Sooner team and us.  We lose any such comparison.

That leaves one spot open.  If Ohio State beats Illinois, beats Michigan, and beats Wisconsin, we will be 11-2 and a conference champion and Wisconsin will be, at best, 12-1 and a non-champion with a head-to-head loss to Ohio State. Unlike last year, with the new guidelines, the 2-loss conference champ gets the advantage.

That leaves only Notre Dame in our way and without a conference championship, ND finishes 10-2, with the committee's last true impression of them as getting skunked by Miami.  ND will be out.

There is an argument for Southern Cal who could win the Pac 12 and finish 11-2, but the fact that the committee had Ohio State leap over USC this week by 2 spots leads me to believe that OSU wins the comparison.  Wins over Michigan and Wisconsin will be more impressive than wins over UCLA and Washington going forward.

On to Illinois - they are . . . not so good.  If this was the Premier League, Illinois would already be relegated to the MAC.  Matthew and I have been to each of the last 2 Illinois visits to the Shoe (2012 - Ohio State 52-22 and 2014 - Ohio State 55-14).  In between those, Illinois lost at home to the Buckeyes 60-35, and in 2015, we beat them 28-3.   Average margin of victory:  30.  Average points scored by OSU: 49. Those Illini teams were arguably better than this year's version.

The Vegas line has crawled up to 41 with an over/under of 55.  I'm not a math major but a score of 48-7 is needed just to create a push on both lines.  That's a pretty tall order no matter how poorly the opposition is. 

it's also Senior Day at the Shoe.  It's tough to look at Senior Day performances when the opponent is Michigan, so I looked at Senior Day performances for our last home game before we go to Ann Arbor.  

2015 - lost to Michigan State (+14)   14-17

2013 - def Indiana (+34.5)                  42-14

2011 - lost to Penn State (+6.5)         14-20

2009 - def Iowa (+ 15.5)                    27-24 (ot)

2007 - lost to Illinois (-15)                  21-28

2005 - def Northwestern (+ 19.5)      48-7

2003 - def Purdue (+3)                       16-13 (ot)

2001 - lost to Illinois (- 1.5)                22-34

1999 - lost to Illinois                          20-46

So that is 4-5 S/U and a nice 1-7-1 ATS.  

I would be emotional playing my last game in Ohio Stadium.  (Note - I was emotional my senior year watching my last game as a student - coincidentally a 7-12 loss to unranked Wisconsin when Ohio State was No. 3.  Thanks, Earle).  Maybe that is what the players feel.  Maybe it's the fact that Michigan is coming up on the schedule.  I don't know what it is but we rarely play well the week prior.   So, while I expect Ohio State to win big, the history books (as well as the inconsistent performance of this year's team) tells me otherwise.  So, if you are wagering, I think you need to take Illinois and the points. Actually, I think I would just stay away from this game altogether.   Don't bet the spread, don't bet the over/under.  Just save your money this week.  But for purposes of pure fun, ignoring history and all else . . . 

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 58, Illinois 14.

P.S.  I will be in Arizona next week so I do not know if I will have a Michigan preview or not.  Apologies if I do not.

Michigan State

I'm trying, you know, but as a friend has pointed out.

Unless there is complete carnage during the remaining weeks (e.g. Georgia loses to Auburn and GT, Bama loses to Miss State and Auburn, Auburn loses rematch with Georgia, ND loses to Miami or Stanford, Miami loses to ND or Clemson, Clemson loses to So Carolina, Wisconsin loses to Iowa and Ohio State, Oklahoma loses to TCU 2x, TCU loses to somebody, USC loses to UCLA, Washington loses to Wash State or USC, just as an example) the CFP is out of reach and all that is left to play for is (1) Beating Michigan, and (2) the B1G championship.  Color me spoiled but I am finding it difficult to get excited about that. . . right now.

The weather does not help. Those of you in Ohio will dip below freezing tonight and stay there for the next 36+ hours.   Three days of clouds and rain in NC make one dreary.  Thank goodness I don't have to play, only watch.

So, Sparty.  Home team has not won in series since 2007.  MSU beats us every odd year since (2009, 2011, and 2015 in Shoe, along with 2013 in B1G Championship) so, not looking so good, so far.  Just FYI, Dantonio is also 20-7 in his last 27 November games.

MSU is 2-1 S/U away this year and 1-2 ATS.  Vegas has the Buckeyes a 15.5 point favorite with 54.5 as the O/U.  Both defenses are comparable, but Ohio State has the better offense.  The question is where will Ohio State's mindset be?  The debacle in Iowa City can either be devastating or a rallying point.  I don't know if it was a blip or the sign of something bigger going on in the program.  

I believe the Buckeyes have the talent to exploit any weakness in Michigan State's defense.  I also believe our defense, if it so chooses, can make the Spartans into an offensive powerhouse.  I think Ohio State will put up points.  I also believe our kickoff coverage will stink and we will commit at least 9 penalties for 90 yards and keep at least 3 MSU drives alive.   Given Sparty's track record in the Shoe, I think the smart play is to take MSU and the 15.5.  I also think you should bet the over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 35, Michigan State 28

Iowa

My question:

Got to admit that I'm still feeling the hangover from last week's win. As you may recall, we were at Epcot so Matthew and I were constantly checking our phones to get updates. Using the Fox Sports App we saw the Denzel Ward interception overturned in the 3rd quarter giving PSU a TD and I knew the fix was in.  (The Fox guys were correct - the ref on the field could have called it either way, but there was insufficient evidence to reverse whatever call he made).  Then our kickoff team stopped screwing up and JT silenced 99% of his remaining doubters. What a win.  What. A. Win.

(Side note - I had predicted 42-27, and at one point PSU led 35-27 and had first and goal at our 6.  I was sure I was going to be correct but in reverse.  So glad it didn't turn out that way).

Fortunately for us, Urban Meyer does not tolerate hangovers.  Since he took over in 2012, the Buckeyes have suffered only one letdown (at PSU last year) the week after a "big game."  Moreover, we usually cover the spread too.  (The following are my selections of big games during the season and the result the following week):

Big Game                                            Next Week:  

                                                                S/U & ATS

2012 - at Michigan State  W 17-16       W          W

            at Penn State W 35-23              W          W

            at Wisconsin W 21-14 (OT)        W          W

2013- Wisconsin  W 31-24                    W          W

           at N'western W 40-30                W           L

2014 - at Michigan State W 49-37         W          L

2016 - at Oklahoma  W 45-24               W          W

           at Wisconsin W 30-23 (OT)         L            L

           Nebraska W  62-3                       W          W

Iowa was supposed to be decent this year.  This game was supposed to be an 8:00 p.m. start until (a) Iowa started to suck and (b) Urban complained about too many 8:00 p.m. road starts.  So, the game is at 3:30.   And, it is the last B1G location for Urban to visit.   He has never taken the Buckeyes to Iowa City.  In case you are wondering, Meyer is 12-0 S/U and 8-4 ATS in first visits to B1G stadiums.  

Iowa is 5-3 this year and one wonders how they have done it.   Here are some statistics:  100th in rushing offense, 78th in passing offense, 104th in total offense, and 88th in scoring offense.   So it's gotta be their defense right?   46th in rushing defense, 69th in passing defense, 45th in total defense, 81st in turnover margin, and 81st in tackles for loss.  

The key is scoring defense.  Iowa is 12th allowing only 17.40 points per game.   The Hawkeyes allow opponents to march freely between the 20s, but when they get within the shadow of the Hawkeye end zone, the defense clamps down and forces FGs.   Four of Iowa's last 5 games have had the following scores:  19-21, 10-17, 10-17, and 17-10.  Network executives' feelings.  

Ohio State is a 17.5 favorite with the Over/Under at 52.5.   Please note, this is the lowest O/U Vegas has set for an Ohio State game all season.  Coincidentally, it ties the highest O/U set for an Iowa game all season.   6 of Ohio State's 8 games have gone "Over" while 6 of Iowa's 8 games have gone "Under." Something's gotta give on Saturday.

Ohio State has won 5 straight in the series and 7 of the last 8 in Iowa City.  Iowa, on the other hand, is 3-1 at home against AP Top 5 opponents.  Ohio State is 

3-0 ATS on the road in 2017, while Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog in the last 11 years.  

If this game was in the Shoe, I'm pretty sure I would take Iowa and the 17.5.  But the Buckeyes play so well on the road that it is hard to ignore. Plus, Iowa does nothing that really scares me. Sophomore QB Nathan Stanley (4) does not run.  He stays in the pocket.  I think that allows us to rush 5 or even 6 since we don't have to worry about scrambling.  His completion percentage is in the mid-50s so put some pressure on him and he'll make mistakes. Senior RB Akrum Wadley (25) is a small tank, but he is the only guy who carries the ball. If he's in the game, focus on him.  Iowa does have a good FG kicker, so if our kickoff coverage team allows a few long returns, Iowa may get some FGs.  Otherwise, I can't see our defense giving up more than 10-13 points.

Iowa's defense may be good, but is there any offense equivalent to what we have going now? (Rhetorical).  We score as many points in the 1st quarter as Iowa scores in the 1st half.   We've scored more points in the 1st half than Iowa has scored all season.  I think we get up early, force Ferentz to abandon the run, and the DL wreaks havoc.  The weather will be a little wet early, but no wind and mild temps.  No hangover for the Buckeyes.  Give the points and take the over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 49, Iowa 13. 

Bonus link:  In case you wonder about the B1G schools fight songs and other music they play, here's a handy link.

Big Ten Conference College Football Fight Music Songs College Football Fight Music brings you the greatest fight songs of the colleges and universities in the Unite...