My question:
Got to admit that I'm still feeling the hangover from last week's win. As you may recall, we were at Epcot so Matthew and I were constantly checking our phones to get updates. Using the Fox Sports App we saw the Denzel Ward interception overturned in the 3rd quarter giving PSU a TD and I knew the fix was in. (The Fox guys were correct - the ref on the field could have called it either way, but there was insufficient evidence to reverse whatever call he made). Then our kickoff team stopped screwing up and JT silenced 99% of his remaining doubters. What a win. What. A. Win.
(Side note - I had predicted 42-27, and at one point PSU led 35-27 and had first and goal at our 6. I was sure I was going to be correct but in reverse. So glad it didn't turn out that way).
Fortunately for us, Urban Meyer does not tolerate hangovers. Since he took over in 2012, the Buckeyes have suffered only one letdown (at PSU last year) the week after a "big game." Moreover, we usually cover the spread too. (The following are my selections of big games during the season and the result the following week):
Big Game Next Week:
S/U & ATS
2012 - at Michigan State W 17-16 W W
at Penn State W 35-23 W W
at Wisconsin W 21-14 (OT) W W
2013- Wisconsin W 31-24 W W
at N'western W 40-30 W L
2014 - at Michigan State W 49-37 W L
2016 - at Oklahoma W 45-24 W W
at Wisconsin W 30-23 (OT) L L
Nebraska W 62-3 W W
Iowa was supposed to be decent this year. This game was supposed to be an 8:00 p.m. start until (a) Iowa started to suck and (b) Urban complained about too many 8:00 p.m. road starts. So, the game is at 3:30. And, it is the last B1G location for Urban to visit. He has never taken the Buckeyes to Iowa City. In case you are wondering, Meyer is 12-0 S/U and 8-4 ATS in first visits to B1G stadiums.
Iowa is 5-3 this year and one wonders how they have done it. Here are some statistics: 100th in rushing offense, 78th in passing offense, 104th in total offense, and 88th in scoring offense. So it's gotta be their defense right? 46th in rushing defense, 69th in passing defense, 45th in total defense, 81st in turnover margin, and 81st in tackles for loss.
The key is scoring defense. Iowa is 12th allowing only 17.40 points per game. The Hawkeyes allow opponents to march freely between the 20s, but when they get within the shadow of the Hawkeye end zone, the defense clamps down and forces FGs. Four of Iowa's last 5 games have had the following scores: 19-21, 10-17, 10-17, and 17-10. Network executives' feelings.
Ohio State is a 17.5 favorite with the Over/Under at 52.5. Please note, this is the lowest O/U Vegas has set for an Ohio State game all season. Coincidentally, it ties the highest O/U set for an Iowa game all season. 6 of Ohio State's 8 games have gone "Over" while 6 of Iowa's 8 games have gone "Under." Something's gotta give on Saturday.
Ohio State has won 5 straight in the series and 7 of the last 8 in Iowa City. Iowa, on the other hand, is 3-1 at home against AP Top 5 opponents. Ohio State is
3-0 ATS on the road in 2017, while Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog in the last 11 years.
If this game was in the Shoe, I'm pretty sure I would take Iowa and the 17.5. But the Buckeyes play so well on the road that it is hard to ignore. Plus, Iowa does nothing that really scares me. Sophomore QB Nathan Stanley (4) does not run. He stays in the pocket. I think that allows us to rush 5 or even 6 since we don't have to worry about scrambling. His completion percentage is in the mid-50s so put some pressure on him and he'll make mistakes. Senior RB Akrum Wadley (25) is a small tank, but he is the only guy who carries the ball. If he's in the game, focus on him. Iowa does have a good FG kicker, so if our kickoff coverage team allows a few long returns, Iowa may get some FGs. Otherwise, I can't see our defense giving up more than 10-13 points.
Iowa's defense may be good, but is there any offense equivalent to what we have going now? (Rhetorical). We score as many points in the 1st quarter as Iowa scores in the 1st half. We've scored more points in the 1st half than Iowa has scored all season. I think we get up early, force Ferentz to abandon the run, and the DL wreaks havoc. The weather will be a little wet early, but no wind and mild temps. No hangover for the Buckeyes. Give the points and take the over.
Schaef Says: Ohio State 49, Iowa 13.
Bonus link: In case you wonder about the B1G schools fight songs and other music they play, here's a handy link.
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