Big Ten Championship

I LOVE the Big Ten Championship game!  Why?  Because we always beat Wisconsin and I get to use one of my favorite memes ever:

Go home Badgers!  You're drunk!

And it's always good to beat Wisconsin for national rankings.  Why I remember. . . wait. . . What??  Wisconsin's not in the B1G Championship? Really?  Well, then who is?  Northwestern?!?  I know them, that can't be.  They're that little school that talked to me. (Shout out to King George in "Hamilton" there). 

So Northwestern.  Who are you?  Seriously, I mean we've played the Wildcats only 2x in the past 9 seasons (10 if you count this regular season).   Iowa is the opponent with the next fewest and we've played them 4x.  The 2016 matchup was remarkable in that we were a 26.5 point favorite at home and steamrolled Northwestern 24-20. (# [Hashtag] Sarcasm - for you Twitter users). To be fair, the week prior we had our hearts ripped out at Penn State on that blocked FG return for a TD so we were a little out of sorts.  We would go on to win our next 2 games 62-3 each, beat MSU, and then of course, beat UM.

2013, however, is infamous for one of the baddest "Bad Beats" ever.  If you don't know of what I speak, then take the next 5 minutes and learn from ESPN's Scott Van Pelt and Stanford Steve.

Hey, you want to know something else?  Northwestern lost each of those games by 4 and 4 (officially 10 in the 2nd, but you get the point).  The Wildcats were 4-0 and No. 16 in the 2013 matchup, but an ugly 4-3 and unranked in 2016.  Yet, they played the Buckeyes tough.  Northwestern makes us earn it.

This year's version is 8-4 overall, but 8-1 in the Big Ten.  Out of conference, the Wildcats lost at home to Duke, Akron, and Notre Dame.  If this was men's soccer that would not be embarrassing. It isn't,so, it is. (*Note - Northwestern also lost at home to that Team Up North).  But after starting the season 1-3, then finished out 7-1 with wins at Michigan State, v. Wisconsin, and at Iowa along the way.  They deserve to be in Indy.

How do they win?  First, they don't beat themselves.  Northwestern is the anti-Ohio State team when it comes to penalties.  The Wildcats are the LEAST penalized team in the nation.  If you scroll down that link, you'll have to go all the way down to find the Buckeyes (127/130).  Other than that, the only other remarkable thing Northwestern does is . . . nothing. 

Offensively, they don't do anything well.  120th in rushing offense, 62nd in passing offense, 111th in total offense, and 108th in scoring offense (23.70).  Please note that last stat - Northwestern outscores their opponents 23.7 - 21.7.  They played sound defense, keep the game under control, and win the close ones in the end.

Senior QB Clayton Thorsen (No. 18) has started for 3 years (he was the QB v. Ohio State in 2016) and completes a respectable 60.3% of his passes.  He has 14 TDs to go with 12 INTs, and has thrown for 2,675 yards.  By comparison, Dwayne Haskins completes 69%, has 42 TDs and only 7 INTs, and has thrown for 4,081 yards.  That is a dramatic difference.

Jeremy Larkin was their chief RB until he was lost for the season in Week 3.  Freshman Isaiah Bowser  (No. 25) (from Sidney, OH) eventually stepped in and took over and in 6 weeks is averaging 26 carries and 122 yards.  Thorsen's favorite target is Senior WR Flynn Nagel (No. 2).  He has 64 receptions for 746 yards, which is roughly equivalent to K.J. Hill's production. 

You would think the way Northwestern grounds out wins is that they have high Time of Possession and great 3rd down conversion rates.  You'd be wrong. The Wildcats are middle of the road in TOP (56th at 30:19) and okay at 3rd down conversion (31st with 34.68%).  Conversely, despite our quick strike offense, the Buckeyes are 24th in TOP (32:11) and 13th in 3rd downs (47.4%).  

So, their offense is not the reason.  Is it the defense? They do tend to keep you off the scoreboard.  They are 29th in Scoring Defense allowing just over 21 ppg (21.70).   So, you can run on them, and you can pass on them.  Eventually, though they stop you just over the 50 and force you to punt or coax you into a turnover.   Two stats that do stand out to me are Sacks and Tackles for Loss.  The Wildcats are 114th in QB sacks (them sacking the opposition) and 92nd in TFLs.   That tells me that they don't really put any pressure on the QB or get into the opponent's backfield.  Against Dwayne Haskins, that might not be a recipe for success. 

I've been dead wrong on the Buckeyes each of the last 6 weeks or so, but I'm willing to jump on the horse again and give it a shot.  Ohio State should beat Northwestern handily.   The Wildcats will not put any pressure on Haskins and he should be able to pick apart the Wildcat defense.  The game is being played indoors on synthetic turf, so conditions will be ideal.  I don't think the Northwestern team will like that. They have played 9 of their 12 games so far on grass (probably very long, slow grass) and in the elements.  Northwestern's offense is not designed to break big plays, but if Ohio State's defense reverts to its Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana form, we could help them.  Plus, Northwestern's defense matched up well against slower, more methodical offenses like Michigan, MSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin. They have yet to see anything like us.

But 2 things (known unknowns) make predicting this game especially tricky  One, we don't know which Ohio State team will show up.  If it's last week's team, this game could be 55-10.   Two, we don't know how the results from Oklahoma-Texas (12 noon kickoff) and Alabama-Georgia (4:00 kickoff) will affect the Buckeyes.  If Oklahoma revenges their only loss or if Georgia pulls the upset, the Ohio State team may realize their CFP chances are gone.  Yes, they still have the Championship to play for and a trip to the Rose Bowl, but when they look across the field and see those purple pants and the helmets with the "N" on them, you think they'll be as fired up as last week?  Probably not.  Instead, they might think they have this in the bag and then the Wildcats will come out an punch them in the mouth.

Conversely, if Texas pulls the upset and Alabama smashes Georgia, Ohio State may feel like they are already in (because they'll be overconfident - see above) and may not play with the urgency they need to win let alone win convincingly. 

Finally, if the early results are mixed (say Oklahoma wins in 2 OT but gives up 50+ points and Georgia loses by only 3 to Bama) Ohio State may feel like they need to win 59-0 to make their point and they may press too hard and not make plays.  Or if Northwestern scores 17 by halftime, the Buckeyes may think they've blown their chance.

Vegas has Ohio State as 14.5 favorite with the O/U at 61.  While there is certainly more than enough evidence and statistical support to say Ohio State should win by 25 and score 45, there seems to be something about Northwestern versus the Buckeyes that will prevent both of those things happening.  So, I'm going to take Northwestern and the points, and bet the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 30, Northwestern 20.  Ohio State v. Washington in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.  Not a bad consolation prize.

P.S.  Since y'all will be rooting against Oklahoma at Noon (I know it may be difficult to root for the traitor Tom Herman), you should know the Texas fight song, appropriately named, "Texas Fight."   Two things to know: (1) the melody originated when someone sped up the tempo to "Taps" (true story); and (2) the second to last line is never sung as written.  Instead of "Hail, hail the gang's all here" (hmm, sounds familiar) ALL Longhorns (as Matthew and I discovered on our visit to Austin a few weeks ago) sing "Give 'em hell, give 'em hell, OU SUCKS!"  (And you do the "Hook 'em" sign during that part).

P.S. 2 - I'm interested to think what you folks think will happen this weekend.  I think Oklahoma beats Texas 42-31.  I think Alabama beats Georgia 40-24, and Clemson beats Pitt 143-0.   Your four CFP teams will be Alabama v. Oklahoma, and Clemson v. Notre Dame.   Agree? 

That Team Up North

Sorry this is so late.  It's not my fault, except that it is.  Anyway, apologies.

I still don't feel I'm ready for this but you know what they say.

I'm going to use the M-word here just because if you don't say the name, you give it power.  When in reality they are really not all that special. For example.

For weeks I was going to open this preview with the immortal words of Jim Morrison.  I mean we've won 13 of the last 14 meetings, right?  This just cannot keep on going can it?  And Michigan is No. 1 in Total Defense.  We are not.  Defense wins championships and ours is not all that this year. Michigan also has a QB who can throw and run, and a backup who looks pretty good.  Since their opening day loss at Notre Dame, they've been on a roll and only really challenged by and at Northwestern.  This is the best Wolverine team we've seen since 2006.  I'm convinced they are going to score 31 points on us today no matter what the weather conditions are.

And how many times have they been an underdog in this series and given us all we can handle?  Well, I'll tell you and let's just speak of recent history.  In 2013, OSU was favored by 16 and escaped with a 1 point win. In 2014, the Buckeyes were favored by 21, but the game was tied with 5 minutes remaining.  And last year we were favored by 12 but led by only 4 with 2:36 remaining. Now, Michigan is the better team, the higher ranked team, and the one Vegas favors by an ever increasing margin (the line opened at 3.5 but is now up to 5).  Like all good things. . . 

So that is that.  I guess I'm done.  But, wait . . . just one more thing

Do you happen to know Urban Meyer's record at Ohio State when the Buckeyes are an underdog?  I looked it up.  Meyer is not only 6-0 ATS he is 6-0 S/U.  You read that correctly.  Today is actually the first time in 52 games that the Buckeyes are a dog.  Very few of the players are around from the last time (the 2014 National Championship) but the coach still is.

And remember when I pointed out a few weeks ago that Meyer almost always wins the close games.  Both betting wise and actual play.  He is 13-1 S/U when the point spread is less than 7 either way.  Even when the spread is not close but the game, Meyer wins. (Exhibit A - Maryland).

And Meyer has never lost 2 conference games in a season.  Ohio State's already lost to Purdue.

Finally, this is a rivalry game. It's almost always close.  And if it's close . . . (if you are not getting the hint by the ellipses, read the above 3 paragraphs again).

You can get so lost in the weeds on this one.  What is the narrative?  Michigan's revenge tour finishes its mission by claiming the Buckeye scalp?  Or does Meyer once again defy the odds and gyrate his way to another improbable win?

I love my Buckeyes.  I will be screaming at the TV at times today willing them to score 34 and eek past the maize and blue.  That's what my heart says.

My mind is a different creature.  It says, go back and listen to The Doors and Journey.

Schaef says (bitterly):  Ohio State 17, Michigan 31.  ("Let's not party, Columbus").  Take Michigan, give the 5, and bet the Under (53.5).

P.S.  To happier predictions and times

Go Bucks!

Maryland

The best version of Maryland, My Maryland. 

Look, I don't have much time this week and it's difficult to get excited for Maryland. Plus, after this season, I'm ready to give up making predictions. I'm so confused that I don't know if it's Duck Season or Rabbit Season.

Maryland, as you know, had an OT die this Spring from heat exhaustion. The investigation revealed a culture considered toxic by many and so HC D.J. Durkin (who had come over from Michigan a couple of years ago) was placed on Administrative Leave.  Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada took over and engineered an upset of Texas in Game 1 and things were going well for the Terrapins.  Then 2 weeks ago the Board of Regents decided to reinstate Durkin over the objection of the school President. The players were outraged, as was the President, so he fired Durkin the next day. Maryland's team has lost its last 2 games (at home to MSU and at Indiana last Saturday) during this recent drama.  Now you are caught up.

One job you don't want to have, or your child to have, is a Maryland QB.  We get Tyrrell Pigrome this week, assuming he stays healthy.  Maryland is 125th out of 130 teams in Passing Offense this year.  Pigrome will likely not improve that aspect very much.  Instead, the Terrapins will rely upon Redshirt Freshman RB Anthony McFarland, a 5'8" 193 dynamo who has 755 yards. While that may not sound like a lot, it is considering now injured RB Ty Johnson had 500+ yards, and back up RB Javon Leake has 245. In fact, Maryland has the 18th best Rushing Offense in the nation and has rushed for more than 300 yards 4x this season. The Silver Bullets can load the box with 8 or 9 defenders and focus on stopping that running game.

On the other side of the ball, Maryland has the 18th best Pass Defense, which is amazing considering that they are 104th in sacks per game.  So, they don't get any pressure on the opposing QB but still cover receivers very well.  The Maryland secondary also is No. 1 in Interceptions this year with 17.  Haskins will have time, but will he be able to use it well?  I think he will, in part because Haskins is returning home and will have some extra motivation to be awesome.

A win this weekend likely guarantees Ohio State a spot in the Rose Bowl against probably Washington State.  That would be nice. The Buckeyes haven't been to Pasadena since the 2009 season. (Explanation - even with a loss to scUM, OSU would be 10-2 and likely ranked in the top 15, and a much more attractive candidate than West champion Northwestern.  Even with a win over scUM and a B1G Championship, OSU still may be on outside looking in at playoff). 

Consecutive road games are usually not an impediment to Urban Meyer.  His incredible road record was referenced last week.  At OSU, he went 2-0 in 2013 (at Pur, at Ill), 2-0 in 2014 (at MSU, at Minn), and 3-1 in 2016 (at Wis, at PSU, then at Mary, at MSU).   

Vegas started the Buckeyes as 16.5 point favorites, and despite Maryland losing their QB, the line has dropped to 14.5, with the over/under remaining consistent at 58.5.  I don't believe for a minute that Ohio State has worked out their problems and they were bailed out last week by a punter and a totally inept opposition offense. That being said, I don't see Maryland being that difficult.  So, I'm inclined to give the points and bet the over, because, why not?

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 45, Maryland 21.

P.S. In case you didn't believe me about O Tannenbaum.

Michigan State

I have uncovered video of Urban Meyer after last year's Iowa debacle as he got ready for MSU.  And he came close. I mean that was a beat down.  Look at the Team Stats.  Sparty had 131 yards passing and only 64 rushing, yet somehow held the ball for over 35 minutes and tallied all of 3 points.

And now Ohio State travels to East Lansing. Now, while MSU is 6-4 against us either in Columbus or Indianapolis, the Buckeyes are 6-0 since 1999, and 8-1 since 1992 at Sparty.  During this unbeaten stretch, we've seen some really exciting moments. Let's stroll down memory lane for a moment, shall we?  How about 2004, when Freshman Ted Ginn, Jr. almost single-handedly beat MSU?  Or 2006 when Troy Smith had one of his many incredible moments on his way to the Heisman?  And of course, 2014, one of the most exciting (and pivotal) wins in OSU history.

So, a lot of success in East Lansing. Add to that Urban Meyer's record away from home.  6.75 seasons, and only 3 losses. 24 B1G road wins and 28 overall.  Coach gets us ready to play when we wear our road whites and have lots of opposing fans screaming at us. 

Have I mentioned that Coach Meyer has never lost 2 B1G games in a season?  He's had 2 losses on a couple of occasions (2013: B1G Champ, Orange Bowl; 2016: at PSU, Fiesta; 2017: Oklahoma, at Iowa), but he never loses 2 conference games.  We've already lost to Purdue this season, so . . . 

There is no way around it, but even at 6-3, Sparty has been a disappointment this year. A narrow win over Utah State, loss at Arizona State, losses at home to Northwestern and Michigan, and no real beat downs of opponents have made this season not one to remember. Jr QB Brian Lewerke is 16-45 for 153 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT in his last 2 games.  One of those was a win.  MSU fans might be relieved to see Freshman Rocky Lombardi take over because he was stellar in a win over Purdue. But the hallmark of the Spartan Offense, that pounding, unrelenting run game, just isn't there.

What is there is the suffocating Spartan Defense.  No. 1 in the nation versus the run giving up only 71.67 ypg.  And, MSU is No. 16 in Scoring defense at 19.0 ppg.   They do have difficulties in the passing game, however, ranking 98th (253.4 ypg). Coincidentally, passing the ball is one of Ohio State's strengths, as the Buckeyes are No. 3 in Passing Offense at 369.10 ypg.  And we all have faith that the coaching staff is working out our running problems, and with Haskins' ability to throw on MSU, the running game should open up.  Past success in East Lansing and we get on the bus with a W.

But, how well do you know your Klingon proverbs?  Well, you should know them. For all the talk about how Michigan is on a "Revenge tour," the Master of Revenge just may be Mark Dantonio.  Coach Happy Face is 7-3 S/U in Revenge games since 2013.   Sparty is also 6-2 ATS as a Home Dog.  He's already done it versus the Buckeyes coming into the Shoe in 2015 and beating that undefeated team that should have been in the playoff.   You think he doesn't remember 48-3?

Vegas has Ohio State as a 3.5 favorite.  Spartan Stadium usually gives MSU a 4.5 point edge (per Phil Steele), so they are trying to tell you the Buckeyes would win by 8 on a neutral field.  Not. Buying. It. Michigan's defense will shut off our running game and Haskins may have to throw 60 times for us to move the ball.  That's 60 times of Isaiah Prince dropping back to protect Haskins.  How many times do you think Sparty hits No. 7?  And hits him hard?   Meanwhile, our defense will make MSU's hapless offense look like Alabama.  

Everyone is wondering if Ohio State controls its own destiny - if the Buckeyes win out will we make the playoff?  Well, wonder no more because that dream comes to a screeching halt at 3:15 p.m. EST on Saturday, when the clock should hit all zeroes.  Temperature at kickoff?  30 degrees. That's cold.  Klingon proverb fulfilled.

Schaef says:  Michigan State 31, Ohio State 28.  Take Sparty and the points, bet the over (52).

P.S.  Fortunately, I will be at Walt Disney World (Hollywood Studios to be more precise) during the game so I will not be able to watch.  Last time we were at Disney during an Ohio State game, this happened.  Good times, good times.  Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt are the best.

Nebraska

This is what I feel like this week trying to get this preview out.  Tough to get back on this horse.

A bye week usually is filled with lots of optimism and enjoyment relishing our most recent win. Until Purdue, we were 10-0 going into a bye week.  Coincidentally, we were 10-0 coming out of bye weeks, so nothing to dread on the horizon.  You have to go back to 2008 for the last time we lost going into a week off when we lost to Penn State 6-13 in the Shoe. Urban's success managing both ends of the bye week made us forget about Tressel's dreadful record (6-1 going into one, but 3-4 coming out).

Yes, sitting on this loss (although foreseen by me) has sapped me of my energy.

But then Frank Sinatra snapped me out of it.  He's right you know. And, there's still a lot to play for (trying to sound optimistic here): beating Michigan, B1G title, and even the National Championship.  So here we go:

Nebraska.  Coached by former Husker QB and UCF coaching darling, Scott Frost. Well, Stan, not much so far. With the return of their Prodigal Son, the Huskers were expected to start 3-0, then slog through a brutal B1G schedule, and get to a bowl. Well, a thunderstorm canceled their opener versus Akron. Then Colorado and Troy upset the Cornhuskers at home. Losses at Michigan, v. Purdue, at Wisconsin and at Northwestern soon followed and Frost started out 0-6.  However, he has started the slow turnaround as Nebraska beat Minnesota and bye week replacement Bethune-Cookman to get to 2-6.

Despite returning 8 starters on Defense, the Cornhuskers haven't been so good. Put it this way - they only allowed 9 points to FCS Bethune-Cookman and their points against average is still at 33.3/game. They cannot stop either the pass or the run effectively.  But, if you are a fan of Big Red and want to find a bright side, the points against is improving the last 6 games from 56, 42, 41, 34, 28, to 9. 

Offensively, they have no issues. Freshman QB Adrian Martinez (2) (no relation to former Husker QB Taylor Martinez) can run and throw.  Maybe think of Tate McSorley, but younger and in red.  Despite Colorado's No. 44 trying to end his career, he's back and fully healthy.  He can present problems.

Senior RB Devine Ozigbo (22) is 6th in the B1G in rushing, averaging just under 100/game. Nebraska has 2 quality WRs in Senior Stanley Morgan, Jr. (8) and Sophomore J.D. Spielman (10).  Morgan is NOT the son of the WR for the New England Patriots during the 1980s, but Spielman IS the son of Vikings GM Rick Spielman, which means is he is the nephew of Buckeye LB great Chris Spielman. The two wideouts have combined for 97 receptions, 1,324 yards and 12 TDs in 8 games. Yeesh.

Nebraska has offensive firepower and defensive liabilities. They also have one more thing - an inability to stop committing penalties.  Believe it or not, the Cornhuskers have committed more penalties for more yards than the Buckeyes have this season.  Look here.  

And, honestly, you don't mess with Ohio State and Urban Meyer after a loss.  The Buckeyes have won their last 5 in a row after a regular season loss by an average of 35 ppg.  Ask Sparty what it was like to play OSU after the Iowa game last year.  Urban is also 18-2 at Ohio State with a week to prepare and 48-4 in his career.  The Buckeyes are 4-0 v. Nebraska in the Shoe and the Cornhuskers haven't beaten a ranked team on the road since PSU in 2011.  All signs point to the Buckeyes opening a can a whoop ass on Nebraska.  Vegas has the line at Ohio State by 18, which seems ridiculously low, and an over/under of 72.5, which seems ridiculously high . . . and yet,

There's something gnawing at me. Kind of like a rat in a metal bucket trying to escape a flame. (Warning: Link may not be suitable for all viewers. Proceed with caution).  Maybe this Ohio State team is not as good as past teams.  Maybe the coaches cannot fix what ails this squad.  There has been a large shadow over the program this season and it returned not only with the Purdue loss, but also the rumors of Meyer leaving, and the facts about his headaches & health.  Maybe Nebraska has hit rock bottom and is trending up, while Ohio State peaked v. PSU and is still heading down.  Things just seem off - for example - oh, I don't know, having a "Black Out" during a Noon kickoff instead of at 8:00 p.m.

Remember Vegas' insanely high over/under of 72.5?  Pay attention to that. Just for comparison, in our 8 previous games our 2 highest over/under lines were 69.5 and 67.  Vegas knows we will score against the Huskers, and Vegas is pretty darn sure Nebraska will score against us.  This has the makings of a track meet and an uncomfortable one at that. 

Schaef says:  Ohio State 44, Nebraska 37.  Take the Huskers and the points and, I can't believe I'm saying this, bet the over.

Bonus: At 3:30 p.m. Saturday, I hope we feel much better than Bruce Springsteen 

Purdue

Ok, that's it.

This has become an impossible task. My instincts have been so wrong and my record reflects that. I thought I at least had the offense figured out, but whatever disease has been afflicting the Ohio State back 7 on defense has now spread to the offensive line. I mean, my Grandma (who just turned 100 this past Monday and who can barely see due to macular degeneration) was talking to me on the phone and said, "Why is 59 still out there? Get him off the field!"  (True story). 

While it is so easy to pick on RT Isaiah Prince, it's everyone. Check out LT (75) Thayer Munford with the "whiff" on 4th and 2 here.

Or C (73) Michael Jordan on these back-to-back plays. First he gets pushed back 5-7 yards right into Haskins' lap, and then misses on a pulling block.

I could go on, and others on the web have, but you get the point.  We now have a resistible force to go along with our moveable object. 

But at least we are playing Purdue, right?  Nothing to be worried about.  Or is there?

The Boilermakers started off the season with losses to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, and Missouri.  Yes, I said Eastern Michigan. In West Lafayette.  Oy.

But here's the thing - those 3 losses were by a combined 8 points.  Since that time, Purdue has defeated Boston College by 17, Nebraska by 14, and Illinois by 39. Yes, there is still a question of how good are they because the combined record of those 3 teams is 9-11.  The point is that the Boilers have apparently fixed whatever was bothering them early in the season and now have their train going in the right direction.  

Statistically, Purdue's offense is very similar to ours.  Ohio State is No. 3 in passing, Purdue is No. 7.  The Buckeyes are 52nd in rushing, Purdue is 59th. They are led by Senior QB (11) David Blough, who came off the bench to start the season, then split time with another QB, and finally took over the starting job.  His performance over the past few weeks (10 TDs, 2 INTs) helps explain why Purdue is 3-0 (and perhaps why they were 0-3 to start the season).  He has the potential to light us up.

He's going to throw a lot to WR (4) Rondale Moore, who has a lot of catches, a lot of yards, and a lot of TDs.  And he can run too.  Senior RB (1) D.J. Knox is small (5'7") but solid (215 lbs) and averaging 90 ypg over the past 3.   Yes, it seems 2nd year coach Jeff Brohm's system is starting to work.  The Boilermakers are averaging 21 pts/game in the 1st half. With our defense, color me concerned.

While Purdue's defense may not have great stats, they did hold an Illinois offense that was averaging 260.8 ypg on the ground to 69.

With our running game struggling, our pass protection weakening, our defense getting pushed around, and our rash of injuries, let me add to that Ohio State's history at West Lafayette.  We are 8-0 v. the Boilermakers in Columbus, but only 5-4 in our last 9 trips to Ross-Ade stadium.  Included in those were this gem, and the comeback that should've have been but ended up not being a win. That 5-4 record is straight up, not against the spread.  And we are playing at night on ABC/ESPN.  Granted, Urban Meyer has only lost 8 games while at Ohio State, but 6 of those have been at night.  If you are looking for symmetry, Meyer has lost 3 at home, 3 at a neutral site, and only 2 away . . . so far.  I'm just saying that if you are looking to make a case for a loss, it's all here.

Vegas certainly is starting to wonder.  After weeks of making the Buckeyes 25+ favorites, this week the line is only 13.  Purdue is 4-0 ATS since an 0-2 start and 2-0 ATS when a dog.  We have a less than ideal history in West Lafayette, and the past few weeks we've looked very vulnerable.  Sure we have some stats on our side (such as: for all our defensive woes, we've held 6 of 7 opponents scoreless in the 4th quarter this year, and only given up 6 3rd quarter points in the last 4). But, if I'm true to myself and all the data and trends that I cherish, all signs point to taking Purdue plus the points and even, dare I say it, a straight up Boiler victory.  

But this season, maybe it's tuna on toast.   (Please click this link - it's the entire reason for this post).

Every instinct I have says Purdue wins this one 27-24. But every instinct I've had about the Buckeyes recently is wrong.  So, I should pull a George.  With no rhyme or reason:

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 49, Purdue 24.  Buckeyes cover!  Bet the over (68.5)!

Bonus:

At least one positive highlight is needed:

Holy Buckeye

Holy Buckeye .

Ok, maybe two:

2012 Ohio State Purdue Final Minute of Regulation and Overtime

2012 Ohio State Purdue Final Minute of Regulation and Overtime Backup Quarterback Kenny Guiton replaces injured starter Braxton Miller, and leads the Buckeyes to an improbable...

Minnesota

So, the Gophers, eh? Paging Carl Spackler.

When I think of the long and storied history of Ohio State and Minnesota in football, the game I most frequently recall is  . . . 

Actually, I don't recall any.  I mean we had one or two nice comebacks against them up in the Metrodome many years ago, but there is not a lot of rich tradition between these two.  Ok, so former Buckeye assistant and current Big Ten Network commentator Glen Mason upset us in the Shoe in 2000 when Cooper's team started 5-0.  Oh, and J.T. Barrett ran 86 yards in the snow up in Minneapolis, so I guess that is something.

The Gophers are now coached by the caffeinated and nautically-minded PJ Fleck.  He's going to do great things at Minnesota, but just not this year.  The team has the most Freshman on any Division I roster.  Not surprisingly, they rank 116th out of 130 teams in experience. They start true Freshman at QB named Zack Annexstad, and backing him up are, wait for it, three Redshirt Freshman.  They also play 2 Freshmen RBs, but that is partly due to injury.

Despite that inexperience, the Gophers started out 3-0 with wins over New Mexico State, Fresno State, and Miami (Ohio), giving up a total of 27 points in those first 3 matches. However, the team's fortunes have changed with the start of the B1G season. Minnesota has lost their last two, and in doing so they gave up 41 points to Maryland and 48 to Iowa. Not only has their defense vanished, but their running game has gone from 295 yards in game 1 to 86 last week, decreasing each and every week.

Meanwhile, Ohio State was admittedly tired and practiced with lower energy last week.  You can bet Meyer won't let that happen again. Also, I have to believe that there will be an emphasis on tightening up the defensive play and certain people (players and coaches) will be highly motivated to perform well.  And this is just the type of opponent to boost your confidence:  Minnesota is 114th in total offense, which is worse by far than Tulane (89th) and almost as bad as Rutgers (126th), the two teams we held to under 10 points.

So, given our defense's up and down performance, who wants to try and predict this one?  While Minnesota's defense is statistically pretty good, I believe those stats are heavily weighted on the first three games, not the last two B1G results (I mean, Maryland is now 101st in total offense that is AFTER putting up over 420 yards v. the Gophers.  So how bad were the Terrapins before?).  And Iowa is not an offensive juggernaut (the game against us in 2017 notwithstanding).  I think the Hoosiers D is better and we torched them for 49.  I think put up similar points or more on Minnesota. On the other side of the ball, I think we are due for a return of the Silver Bullets that we've seen in years past.  I think the Gophers will not have much success running or throwing.

Vegas has the line at 29.5, which is to be expected.  The over/under, however, is only 59.5.   Yeah.  I think the Buckeyes score enough to get you really close and the Gophers manage something because . . . well, our defense.  Give the points, bet the over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 56, Minnesota 10.

Bonus 1:  Did you know? The Honeycrisp apple was developed at the Horticulture Research Center at the University of Minnesota in 1974.  It was made available to the public in 1991 and now is one of the most popular varieties of apple.

Bonus 2:  J.T. Barrett's run.

Bonus 3:  More Carl Spackler.

Indiana

Woody had Michigan State.  Earle had Wisconsin.  Cooper had Illinois.  And Tressel had Purdue.  Each had a B1G team that should not give the Buckeyes problems, but often did.  For Urban Meyer, that team is Indiana.

Unlike all the prior coaches, Meyer has not lost to Indiana, but that's not to say we didn't try.  Check out the scores from the first 5 meetings and Vegas line:

2012 - Ohio State 52, Indiana 49  (Ohio State -18)

2013 - Ohio State 42, Indiana 14  (Ohio State -34.5)

2014 - Ohio State 42, Indiana 27  (Ohio State -34.5)

2015 - Ohio State 34, Indiana 27  (Ohio State -22.5)

2016 - Ohio State 38, Indiana 17  (Ohio State -28)

Some of you may be nodding at this point, while others may be wondering how can a 21 point win be troubling?  It's this - there isn't a single cover in those first five meetings.  There is some disconnect between Vegas and the Buckeyes when it comes to the Hoosiers.  In many of those games, Indiana had 3rd quarter leads.  The streak was finally broken in the opener of 2017 when Ohio State won 49-21 and covered the 21 point spread (in a prediction that will go down in infamy).

Usually, the Hoosiers have a high tempo offense and a suspect defense.  This year it is the opposite. IU's pass defense and total defense numbers are better than Ohio State's, and the rushing defense and scoring defense are almost equal.  They've held 3 opponents to 17 points or less. Granted those foes were Rutgers, Ball State, and Virginia, it is still improvement.  But now they get to meet Dwayne Haskins.

On the other side of the ball, the Hoosiers have one of the most accurate passers in the nation in QB Peyton Ramsey.  He's completing 71% of his throws, which is impressive.  But if Chris Fowler wants to criticize Haskins for short throws, he should take a look at Ramsey.  While Haskins is completing 70.7% of his passes, the average attempt goes for 9.6 yards.  Ramsey's, meanwhile, go for 6.1 yards.   IU dinks and dunks down the field, but unlike Ohio State, their WRs have almost no yards after the catch.  Despite such short throws, Ramsey has 5 INTs, so either those are longer throws or he sometimes makes bad decisions on his short ones.

Indiana comes into the game 4-1 with their loss to Michigan State 21-35.  Even though they've won 4 of 5, they have only outscored their opponents in one quarter, winning the second quarter by a margin of 66-14.  Withstand that 15 minutes and you should be fine.

Yes, we are coming off an emotional win last week, and last year we [deleted] the pooch v. Iowa after beating Penn State.  But that was on the road, this is at home. I think the coaches and players still have that Iowa result fresh in their minds.  And the way Trace McSorley tore up our defense to the tune of 461 yards by himself, will have our coaches and players focused on improvement.  I know we are a bit banged up, but we have sufficient depth for this opponent.  As for the offensive side of the ball, I don't see IU's improved defense causing us much problem.  I think Haskins will stretch the field more than he did v. the Nittany Lions and it will look more like Oregon State, Rutgers, and Tulane.

Vegas has Ohio State favored by 25 (down from 27) with an over/under of 64.5.  Despite Indiana being 5-1 ATS v. Urban, I think you go with the 1, not the 5.  I like the Buckeyes at home to cover and I like the under (barely). 

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 49, Indiana 14.

Year to date:  S/U 5-0, ATS 3-2, O/U 4-1.

Bonus:  Perhaps the greatest moment in this rivalry, at least for Buckeye fans.

Ohio State vs. Indiana 1996