Big Ten Championship

I LOVE the Big Ten Championship game!  Why?  Because we always beat Wisconsin and I get to use one of my favorite memes ever:

Go home Badgers!  You're drunk!

And it's always good to beat Wisconsin for national rankings.  Why I remember. . . wait. . . What??  Wisconsin's not in the B1G Championship? Really?  Well, then who is?  Northwestern?!?  I know them, that can't be.  They're that little school that talked to me. (Shout out to King George in "Hamilton" there). 

So Northwestern.  Who are you?  Seriously, I mean we've played the Wildcats only 2x in the past 9 seasons (10 if you count this regular season).   Iowa is the opponent with the next fewest and we've played them 4x.  The 2016 matchup was remarkable in that we were a 26.5 point favorite at home and steamrolled Northwestern 24-20. (# [Hashtag] Sarcasm - for you Twitter users). To be fair, the week prior we had our hearts ripped out at Penn State on that blocked FG return for a TD so we were a little out of sorts.  We would go on to win our next 2 games 62-3 each, beat MSU, and then of course, beat UM.

2013, however, is infamous for one of the baddest "Bad Beats" ever.  If you don't know of what I speak, then take the next 5 minutes and learn from ESPN's Scott Van Pelt and Stanford Steve.

Hey, you want to know something else?  Northwestern lost each of those games by 4 and 4 (officially 10 in the 2nd, but you get the point).  The Wildcats were 4-0 and No. 16 in the 2013 matchup, but an ugly 4-3 and unranked in 2016.  Yet, they played the Buckeyes tough.  Northwestern makes us earn it.

This year's version is 8-4 overall, but 8-1 in the Big Ten.  Out of conference, the Wildcats lost at home to Duke, Akron, and Notre Dame.  If this was men's soccer that would not be embarrassing. It isn't,so, it is. (*Note - Northwestern also lost at home to that Team Up North).  But after starting the season 1-3, then finished out 7-1 with wins at Michigan State, v. Wisconsin, and at Iowa along the way.  They deserve to be in Indy.

How do they win?  First, they don't beat themselves.  Northwestern is the anti-Ohio State team when it comes to penalties.  The Wildcats are the LEAST penalized team in the nation.  If you scroll down that link, you'll have to go all the way down to find the Buckeyes (127/130).  Other than that, the only other remarkable thing Northwestern does is . . . nothing. 

Offensively, they don't do anything well.  120th in rushing offense, 62nd in passing offense, 111th in total offense, and 108th in scoring offense (23.70).  Please note that last stat - Northwestern outscores their opponents 23.7 - 21.7.  They played sound defense, keep the game under control, and win the close ones in the end.

Senior QB Clayton Thorsen (No. 18) has started for 3 years (he was the QB v. Ohio State in 2016) and completes a respectable 60.3% of his passes.  He has 14 TDs to go with 12 INTs, and has thrown for 2,675 yards.  By comparison, Dwayne Haskins completes 69%, has 42 TDs and only 7 INTs, and has thrown for 4,081 yards.  That is a dramatic difference.

Jeremy Larkin was their chief RB until he was lost for the season in Week 3.  Freshman Isaiah Bowser  (No. 25) (from Sidney, OH) eventually stepped in and took over and in 6 weeks is averaging 26 carries and 122 yards.  Thorsen's favorite target is Senior WR Flynn Nagel (No. 2).  He has 64 receptions for 746 yards, which is roughly equivalent to K.J. Hill's production. 

You would think the way Northwestern grounds out wins is that they have high Time of Possession and great 3rd down conversion rates.  You'd be wrong. The Wildcats are middle of the road in TOP (56th at 30:19) and okay at 3rd down conversion (31st with 34.68%).  Conversely, despite our quick strike offense, the Buckeyes are 24th in TOP (32:11) and 13th in 3rd downs (47.4%).  

So, their offense is not the reason.  Is it the defense? They do tend to keep you off the scoreboard.  They are 29th in Scoring Defense allowing just over 21 ppg (21.70).   So, you can run on them, and you can pass on them.  Eventually, though they stop you just over the 50 and force you to punt or coax you into a turnover.   Two stats that do stand out to me are Sacks and Tackles for Loss.  The Wildcats are 114th in QB sacks (them sacking the opposition) and 92nd in TFLs.   That tells me that they don't really put any pressure on the QB or get into the opponent's backfield.  Against Dwayne Haskins, that might not be a recipe for success. 

I've been dead wrong on the Buckeyes each of the last 6 weeks or so, but I'm willing to jump on the horse again and give it a shot.  Ohio State should beat Northwestern handily.   The Wildcats will not put any pressure on Haskins and he should be able to pick apart the Wildcat defense.  The game is being played indoors on synthetic turf, so conditions will be ideal.  I don't think the Northwestern team will like that. They have played 9 of their 12 games so far on grass (probably very long, slow grass) and in the elements.  Northwestern's offense is not designed to break big plays, but if Ohio State's defense reverts to its Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana form, we could help them.  Plus, Northwestern's defense matched up well against slower, more methodical offenses like Michigan, MSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin. They have yet to see anything like us.

But 2 things (known unknowns) make predicting this game especially tricky  One, we don't know which Ohio State team will show up.  If it's last week's team, this game could be 55-10.   Two, we don't know how the results from Oklahoma-Texas (12 noon kickoff) and Alabama-Georgia (4:00 kickoff) will affect the Buckeyes.  If Oklahoma revenges their only loss or if Georgia pulls the upset, the Ohio State team may realize their CFP chances are gone.  Yes, they still have the Championship to play for and a trip to the Rose Bowl, but when they look across the field and see those purple pants and the helmets with the "N" on them, you think they'll be as fired up as last week?  Probably not.  Instead, they might think they have this in the bag and then the Wildcats will come out an punch them in the mouth.

Conversely, if Texas pulls the upset and Alabama smashes Georgia, Ohio State may feel like they are already in (because they'll be overconfident - see above) and may not play with the urgency they need to win let alone win convincingly. 

Finally, if the early results are mixed (say Oklahoma wins in 2 OT but gives up 50+ points and Georgia loses by only 3 to Bama) Ohio State may feel like they need to win 59-0 to make their point and they may press too hard and not make plays.  Or if Northwestern scores 17 by halftime, the Buckeyes may think they've blown their chance.

Vegas has Ohio State as 14.5 favorite with the O/U at 61.  While there is certainly more than enough evidence and statistical support to say Ohio State should win by 25 and score 45, there seems to be something about Northwestern versus the Buckeyes that will prevent both of those things happening.  So, I'm going to take Northwestern and the points, and bet the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 30, Northwestern 20.  Ohio State v. Washington in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.  Not a bad consolation prize.

P.S.  Since y'all will be rooting against Oklahoma at Noon (I know it may be difficult to root for the traitor Tom Herman), you should know the Texas fight song, appropriately named, "Texas Fight."   Two things to know: (1) the melody originated when someone sped up the tempo to "Taps" (true story); and (2) the second to last line is never sung as written.  Instead of "Hail, hail the gang's all here" (hmm, sounds familiar) ALL Longhorns (as Matthew and I discovered on our visit to Austin a few weeks ago) sing "Give 'em hell, give 'em hell, OU SUCKS!"  (And you do the "Hook 'em" sign during that part).

P.S. 2 - I'm interested to think what you folks think will happen this weekend.  I think Oklahoma beats Texas 42-31.  I think Alabama beats Georgia 40-24, and Clemson beats Pitt 143-0.   Your four CFP teams will be Alabama v. Oklahoma, and Clemson v. Notre Dame.   Agree?