Wisconsin

I'm sure Madison is a lovely town (I hear it is) but why is the "University of Wisconsin" there?  Shouldn't it be "Wisconsin State" then? I mean, a great many "State" universities are located in the State Capital (Ohio State - Columbus, NC State - Raleigh, Mich State - East Lansing).  It seems like the Badgers should be in Milwaukee rather than Madison.  But what am I saying?  This isn't a road game.  It's in the Shoe.

Maybe you have heard that some Buckeye fans are upset that this battle of top ten Football Power Index teams is being played at 12 noon as opposed to 7:30 or at least 3:30.  However, "Did you know" that in their last sixty 12 noon kickoffs at home, Ohio State is 60-0?   That . . . is pretty good.  (For those who are curious, you need to go back to November 17, 2001 to find a Noon home game that the Buckeyes lost.  And no, we haven't padded that stat with games entirely made up of Youngstown State, Florida A&M, and MAC teams.  Included in that streak was this little gem from 2007.

Would it have been nicer if Wisconsin had not choked away the lead last week and not lost to a sub-par Illinois team?  Yes . . . and No.  Yes, a victory on Saturday against an undefeated and No. 6 Badger team would be impressive.  But a win over a 1-loss No. 16 Badger team will still be very good.  And besides, realistically we have to go undefeated to make the CFP and it really doesn't matter what our opponents are ranked.  Yes, I would have preferred that Wisconsin not realize their vulnerabilities and maybe come into the Shoe a little more overconfident than the more focused Badger team we'll get tomorrow.  However, now Wisconsin knows it has NO ROOM FOR ERROR.  A second conference loss and the season is done.  Maybe they play a little tighter knowing that?  

Even with the loss to Illinois this week, I expected Ohio State to be a 6.5 favorite.  Then I saw the Vegas line

14.5?  Does Vegas want to lose money?  No disrespect to the Buckeyes but that is a huge spread.  It's begging me to take Wisconsin plus the points and then clear a spot on my coffee table for all of my winnings.  About one hour later I came to a remarkable conclusion.  If Vegas is practically handing a win to me, then I would be a great fool to take it.  The sharps must know that the Buckeyes offensive weapons will expose the talented Badger defense.  And the sharps must know that the Buckeye defense will be able to handle and contain Wisconsin's Heisman candidate RB Jonathan Taylor.  So, I can clearly not choose the wine (points) in front of me.

I was all set to make a prediction when I decided at the last minute to check the weather.  Oy vey.  The forecast for Columbus is low 50s and steady rain at kickoff.  I think the rain will start earlier and continue throughout.  My prediction was based upon Justin Fields exploiting the Badger defense by throwing often to all of our great receivers and TEs.  But if it is windy and rainy, that likely won't be effective, so I can clearly not choose the wine (points) in front of you.

But as great as this Badger defense is supposed to be, are they really better than the Spartans?  Probably not.  And we put up 38 on Michigan State a few weeks ago and despite the bad weather, we can probably put up just as many on Wisconsin. So I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

But if the weather was going to be such a big factor, Vegas would have adjusted the line downward to account for a lower scoring slugfest.  They have not, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.

I'm not stalling . . . Vegas has given everything away.   I'll make my selection, but wait . . . what's that over there?   Nothing.  (Laughing) I'll tell you later.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 17.   Give the points, bet the over (49.5).

P.S. Whenever we play Wisconsin, I get to use my favorite Meme of all time:

Michigan State

Ok, I'm a believer.  The Buckeyes are for real this year.  Crikey!  

The offense is rolling.  The defense is tight.  It's okay to have dreams of the playoffs.

But we must be careful that we are not living in our own private Idaho.  Sparty is coming and the perpetually angry Mark Dantonio has a message for us. 

Before you decide to lock me up, hear me out. The last four meetings between Michigan State and Ohio State in Columbus have been . . . well, not so good.  Ohio State was favored in all 4 matchups, and by double digits in three of those.  Yet, MSU is 2-2 S/U and 3-1 ATS (the only time the Bucks covered was 2017, a 48-3 win a week after we got embarrassed in Iowa City).  Also, the Under was the play in all 4 of those games. 

Stretch it out the 4 meetings prior to those and it gets only marginally better. Again, Ohio State favored in all 4 but   was just 3-1 S/U and 2-1-1 ATS.  Overall, Ohio State is a pedestrian 15-9 at home v. Michigan State. When Sparty comes to the Shoe, you are in for a slobberknocker.  To put it another way, Ohio State is 60-5 against the B1G in their last 65 conference games, and two of the five losses are to Dantonio's squad.

Now, fortunately for the Buckeyes, OSU is 14-6 against the Spartans when both are ranked, such as this week (4 and 25, respectively).  Ohio State is 15-5 in home night games and we have a 7:30 ET kickoff on ABC. 

Also in our favor, the Buckeye defense is actually statistically better that Michigan State's historically strong defense.  Nevertheless, it is the Spartan defense that causes me to have minor heartburn about Saturday night's matchup.  Ohio State is averaging 281.6 yards/game rushing the ball.  MSU is only giving up 55.8 yards/game. Part of the Buckeyes' success is getting 5-7 yards on 1st down, which opens up the playbook and allows Fields to throw, run, or handoff some more.   I fear that we may see many 2nd and 9 situations early in the game and our offense may be negatively affected.  Sparty will give Fields looks he hasn't seen before and force him to hit his 3rd or 4th choice receiver often for very short gains. 

In addition to first down being key for the Buckeye offense, so will Fields' running ability.  He is averaging 9 carries per game so far. I would not be surprised if his total at the end of Saturday night is 18 or more. 

Offensively, Michigan State does not scare me much.  Then again, in 2015, we were undefeated and No. 3 in the nation, and MSU was without their starting QB (Connor Cook) and we all know how that ended.  

Vegas has the Buckeyes favored by 20 with the over/under at 50.  Weather should clear and mid-60s so no issues there.  Betting the Under with this year's Ohio State squad is very risky and I would advise against it.  But if you are wanting to bet the under, this Saturday is probably the best time to do so.  I would take Sparty and the points and bet the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 24, Michigan State 10. 

Predictions to date:  5-0 S/U;  4-1 ATS;  3-2  O/U.

P.S.  I cannot in good conscience have a Michigan State preview without paying tribute to the great John L. Smith.

P.S. 2 -  Appropos of this preview, my favorite B-52's song