Ok, I'm a believer. The Buckeyes are for real this year. Crikey!
The offense is rolling. The defense is tight. It's okay to have dreams of the playoffs.
But we must be careful that we are not living in our own private Idaho. Sparty is coming and the perpetually angry Mark Dantonio has a message for us.
Before
you decide to lock me up, hear me out. The last four meetings between
Michigan State and Ohio State in Columbus have been . . . well, not so
good. Ohio State was favored in all 4 matchups, and by double digits in
three of those. Yet, MSU is 2-2 S/U and 3-1 ATS (the only time the
Bucks covered was 2017, a 48-3 win a week after we got embarrassed in
Iowa City). Also, the Under was the play in all 4 of those games.
Stretch
it out the 4 meetings prior to those and it gets only marginally
better. Again, Ohio State favored in all 4 but was just 3-1 S/U and
2-1-1 ATS. Overall, Ohio State is a pedestrian 15-9 at home v. Michigan
State. When Sparty comes to the Shoe, you are in for a slobberknocker.
To put it another way, Ohio State is 60-5 against the B1G in their
last 65 conference games, and two of the five losses are to Dantonio's
squad.
Now, fortunately for the
Buckeyes, OSU is 14-6 against the Spartans when both are ranked, such as
this week (4 and 25, respectively). Ohio State is 15-5 in home night
games and we have a 7:30 ET kickoff on ABC.
Also
in our favor, the Buckeye defense is actually statistically better that
Michigan State's historically strong defense. Nevertheless, it is the
Spartan defense that causes me to have minor heartburn about Saturday
night's matchup. Ohio State is averaging 281.6 yards/game rushing the
ball. MSU is only giving up 55.8 yards/game. Part of the Buckeyes'
success is getting 5-7 yards on 1st down, which opens up the playbook
and allows Fields to throw, run, or handoff some more. I fear that we
may see many 2nd and 9 situations early in the game and our offense may
be negatively affected. Sparty will give Fields looks he hasn't seen
before and force him to hit his 3rd or 4th choice receiver often for
very short gains.
In
addition to first down being key for the Buckeye offense, so will
Fields' running ability. He is averaging 9 carries per game so far. I
would not be surprised if his total at the end of Saturday night is 18
or more.
Offensively,
Michigan State does not scare me much. Then again, in 2015, we were
undefeated and No. 3 in the nation, and MSU was without their starting
QB (Connor Cook) and we all know how that ended.
Vegas
has the Buckeyes favored by 20 with the over/under at 50. Weather
should clear and mid-60s so no issues there. Betting the Under with
this year's Ohio State squad is very risky and I would advise against
it. But if you are wanting to bet the under, this Saturday is probably
the best time to do so. I would take Sparty and the points and bet the
under.
Schaef Says: Ohio State 24, Michigan State 10.
Predictions to date: 5-0 S/U; 4-1 ATS; 3-2 O/U.
P.S. I cannot in good conscience have a Michigan State preview without paying tribute to the great John L. Smith.
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