Wisconsin

I'm sure Madison is a lovely town (I hear it is) but why is the "University of Wisconsin" there?  Shouldn't it be "Wisconsin State" then? I mean, a great many "State" universities are located in the State Capital (Ohio State - Columbus, NC State - Raleigh, Mich State - East Lansing).  It seems like the Badgers should be in Milwaukee rather than Madison.  But what am I saying?  This isn't a road game.  It's in the Shoe.

Maybe you have heard that some Buckeye fans are upset that this battle of top ten Football Power Index teams is being played at 12 noon as opposed to 7:30 or at least 3:30.  However, "Did you know" that in their last sixty 12 noon kickoffs at home, Ohio State is 60-0?   That . . . is pretty good.  (For those who are curious, you need to go back to November 17, 2001 to find a Noon home game that the Buckeyes lost.  And no, we haven't padded that stat with games entirely made up of Youngstown State, Florida A&M, and MAC teams.  Included in that streak was this little gem from 2007.

Would it have been nicer if Wisconsin had not choked away the lead last week and not lost to a sub-par Illinois team?  Yes . . . and No.  Yes, a victory on Saturday against an undefeated and No. 6 Badger team would be impressive.  But a win over a 1-loss No. 16 Badger team will still be very good.  And besides, realistically we have to go undefeated to make the CFP and it really doesn't matter what our opponents are ranked.  Yes, I would have preferred that Wisconsin not realize their vulnerabilities and maybe come into the Shoe a little more overconfident than the more focused Badger team we'll get tomorrow.  However, now Wisconsin knows it has NO ROOM FOR ERROR.  A second conference loss and the season is done.  Maybe they play a little tighter knowing that?  

Even with the loss to Illinois this week, I expected Ohio State to be a 6.5 favorite.  Then I saw the Vegas line

14.5?  Does Vegas want to lose money?  No disrespect to the Buckeyes but that is a huge spread.  It's begging me to take Wisconsin plus the points and then clear a spot on my coffee table for all of my winnings.  About one hour later I came to a remarkable conclusion.  If Vegas is practically handing a win to me, then I would be a great fool to take it.  The sharps must know that the Buckeyes offensive weapons will expose the talented Badger defense.  And the sharps must know that the Buckeye defense will be able to handle and contain Wisconsin's Heisman candidate RB Jonathan Taylor.  So, I can clearly not choose the wine (points) in front of me.

I was all set to make a prediction when I decided at the last minute to check the weather.  Oy vey.  The forecast for Columbus is low 50s and steady rain at kickoff.  I think the rain will start earlier and continue throughout.  My prediction was based upon Justin Fields exploiting the Badger defense by throwing often to all of our great receivers and TEs.  But if it is windy and rainy, that likely won't be effective, so I can clearly not choose the wine (points) in front of you.

But as great as this Badger defense is supposed to be, are they really better than the Spartans?  Probably not.  And we put up 38 on Michigan State a few weeks ago and despite the bad weather, we can probably put up just as many on Wisconsin. So I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

But if the weather was going to be such a big factor, Vegas would have adjusted the line downward to account for a lower scoring slugfest.  They have not, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.

I'm not stalling . . . Vegas has given everything away.   I'll make my selection, but wait . . . what's that over there?   Nothing.  (Laughing) I'll tell you later.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 17.   Give the points, bet the over (49.5).

P.S. Whenever we play Wisconsin, I get to use my favorite Meme of all time:

Michigan State

Ok, I'm a believer.  The Buckeyes are for real this year.  Crikey!  

The offense is rolling.  The defense is tight.  It's okay to have dreams of the playoffs.

But we must be careful that we are not living in our own private Idaho.  Sparty is coming and the perpetually angry Mark Dantonio has a message for us. 

Before you decide to lock me up, hear me out. The last four meetings between Michigan State and Ohio State in Columbus have been . . . well, not so good.  Ohio State was favored in all 4 matchups, and by double digits in three of those.  Yet, MSU is 2-2 S/U and 3-1 ATS (the only time the Bucks covered was 2017, a 48-3 win a week after we got embarrassed in Iowa City).  Also, the Under was the play in all 4 of those games. 

Stretch it out the 4 meetings prior to those and it gets only marginally better. Again, Ohio State favored in all 4 but   was just 3-1 S/U and 2-1-1 ATS.  Overall, Ohio State is a pedestrian 15-9 at home v. Michigan State. When Sparty comes to the Shoe, you are in for a slobberknocker.  To put it another way, Ohio State is 60-5 against the B1G in their last 65 conference games, and two of the five losses are to Dantonio's squad.

Now, fortunately for the Buckeyes, OSU is 14-6 against the Spartans when both are ranked, such as this week (4 and 25, respectively).  Ohio State is 15-5 in home night games and we have a 7:30 ET kickoff on ABC. 

Also in our favor, the Buckeye defense is actually statistically better that Michigan State's historically strong defense.  Nevertheless, it is the Spartan defense that causes me to have minor heartburn about Saturday night's matchup.  Ohio State is averaging 281.6 yards/game rushing the ball.  MSU is only giving up 55.8 yards/game. Part of the Buckeyes' success is getting 5-7 yards on 1st down, which opens up the playbook and allows Fields to throw, run, or handoff some more.   I fear that we may see many 2nd and 9 situations early in the game and our offense may be negatively affected.  Sparty will give Fields looks he hasn't seen before and force him to hit his 3rd or 4th choice receiver often for very short gains. 

In addition to first down being key for the Buckeye offense, so will Fields' running ability.  He is averaging 9 carries per game so far. I would not be surprised if his total at the end of Saturday night is 18 or more. 

Offensively, Michigan State does not scare me much.  Then again, in 2015, we were undefeated and No. 3 in the nation, and MSU was without their starting QB (Connor Cook) and we all know how that ended.  

Vegas has the Buckeyes favored by 20 with the over/under at 50.  Weather should clear and mid-60s so no issues there.  Betting the Under with this year's Ohio State squad is very risky and I would advise against it.  But if you are wanting to bet the under, this Saturday is probably the best time to do so.  I would take Sparty and the points and bet the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 24, Michigan State 10. 

Predictions to date:  5-0 S/U;  4-1 ATS;  3-2  O/U.

P.S.  I cannot in good conscience have a Michigan State preview without paying tribute to the great John L. Smith.

P.S. 2 -  Appropos of this preview, my favorite B-52's song

Nebraska

Who is ready to make Lady Gaga sad?

(*Note 1 - she really isn't a Cornhusker fan. Apparently, Nebraska was the nickname for a guy she dated, who was, in turns out, from Nebraska).

(*Note 2 - for some reason, trying this hyperlink froze my desktop 4x (using Safari), so I switched to using Firefox. (Chrome would simply tell the US Gov't what I was linking and it's none of their business).

Remember when this game was supposed to be scary?  If you do, you'll also remember that Michigan was once -6 v. Ohio State, but that line has now moved to Michigan +10.5.  Both points are evidence of this philosophy, which should be the basis for your life.

Anyway, Scott Frost will have the Cornhusker program back to elite status soon enough, but not this year.  "But wait!" you say, "didn't Nebraska almost beat us last year in the Shoe?"  Yes, Ohio State squeaked by a weak Nebraska squad 36-31, but there were a number of things present in that game that are not present this year. Chief among those problems was the fact that the Buckeyes tried to have a "Black Out" game at 12 Noon. (I hope the moron that planned that has been sacked, and for good measure, those responsible for the sacking have been sacked as well).

But you may remember that last year, Ohio State had a great offense and a suspect defense, while Nebraska had a good offense and a suspect defense. 

The Buckeyes bring back a great offense: No. 3 in Scoring, No. 15 in Total yards, to name 2 categories. Nebraska's defense is improved, no so much. 62nd in Scoring defense, 81st in passing defense, and have allowed single rushing plays of 60+, 50+, and 40+ so far this year.  Mind you, Nebraska has played South Alabama, Northern Illinois, Illinois, and Colorado.  Not exactly "murderer's row."  Oh, and they are 69th in Red Zone defense. Translated: You get inside the 20 on Nebraska, you get a TD.

The Nebraska offense is again capable:  29th in Scoring, 25th in Total yards, and once again led by Adrian Martinez.  He's thrown for more yards this year than Justin Fields, but to be fair, Fields hasn't played in at least 4 quarters so far.  Also, Fields is completing 70% of his passes compared to Martinez's 60%.   Martinez will run as well - he's got almost as many carries as J.K. Dobbins does.  In other words, the ball will be in his hands a lot.

But the biggest difference this year - aside from the Black Out - will be the Ohio State defense.  Our competition has been the same (or maybe even better) than Nebraska's.  The "Silver Bullets are back! No. 3 in Scoring D, No. 7 in Rushing D, No. 2 in Total Yards allowed, No. 1 in Sacks, No. 2 in Tackles for Loss, and No. 5 in Opponent 3rd down conversion.  Oh, and all those long plays from scrimmage that we gave up last year (and Nebraska continues to give up)?  We are No. 6 in the nation in limiting those long plays.   And for all the "good" things Nebraska's offense does - they are woeful when it comes to Sacks allowed (92nd) and Tackles for Loss allowed (120th). 

The Cornhuskers may punch us in the mouth to start the game, but while their offense is the most talented we have faced, they will not be able to keep up with our scoring.  Over time [read: by the second quarter] our defense will adjust and start living in the Nebraska backfield.  Meanwhile, the Cornhusker D has not shown that it can stop an offense as potent as ours.  Barring unexpected injury or illness, you should not worry too much about this game.

Vegas opened with the Buckeyes by 15 but that has grown to 17.  The over/under has also ballooned from 63 to 67.5.  In 2017, we went into Lincoln and came away with a convincing 56-17 win.  I'm thinking history repeats itself, so take the Buckeyes, give the points, and bet the over.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 56, Nebraska 17. 

P.S.  If you follow collegefootballnews.com, you'll be interested to know that Pete Fiutak has picked the Buckeyes to cover as one of his locks of the week.

P.S. 2 - If you remember ABC's Bill Fleming hosting College Football Highlights on Sunday mornings, you'll recall Nebraska's fight song, which is one of my favorites.  Hopefully, we won't hear it much Saturday evening.

Miami, Miami University, Miami (Ohio)

Shockingly, we are 25% done with the regular season and as of Saturday evening, we will be at 33% completed (sniff). This week it's Miami, or Miami University, or Miami (Ohio), but NOT Miami of Ohio or University of Miami, as the Redhawks' weekly Game Notes advises:

PLEASE NOTE: When referring to Miami, please use either Miami, Miami University or Miami (Ohio). Please do not use Miami of Ohio or University of Miami, etc. The latter are not the proper names for our institution. Thank you.

Well, I still call them the Redskins, which is what they were when I traveled to Oxford, Ohio for a week- long basketball camp.  I don't know what a Redhawk is anyway and not sure they exist.  Which reminds me of a funny story.

Back in the fall of 19-something when I was a Freshman at The Ohio State University, during the weekend of the first away football game, I first became aware of the Olentangy Surfing Classic. Two of my Park Hall floor mates told me about this must see event. (I won't single them out, only to tell you that their last names are literally Powell and Kesselring). Anyway, they described in magnificent detail:  how the police shut down Lane Avenue (thus the need for an away game); how this big semi brought in a huge wave machine designed by the fabulous OSU engineering department; how two cranes lowered it over the Lane Ave. bridge into the Olentangy River; how it generated waves for surfing; and how many girls would be in bikinis on the banks of the river.  So, a couple freshman in the room next to me went along and we set off on the 20 minute walk to the Lane Ave bridge from South Campus.

The scene was spectacular.  Fortunately, I have a photo.

20 minutes later we returned to Park Hall slightly angry but more embarrassed.  After Don and Gerry stopped laughing we turned on ABC and watch the Buckeyes thump MSU.  One year later, when I was a Sophomore, I told the tale of the Olentangy Surfing Classic to a couple of new Freshman and they made the journey the Lane Ave bridge as well (shout out to Jeff Hart, if anyone knows him).

Now you may be wondering how I fell for that obvious ruse. Well, what if I told you there were t-shirts? 

That gets your attention, doesn't it?  However, neither Don nor Gerry had a t-shirt. The fact is, as Malcolm Gladwell's new book details, we humans have a Truth Default Setting. We naturally believe people are being truthful.  Sure I had doubts about the Classic, but those doubts were not sufficient enough to overcome the default setting. Liars are rarely caught red-handed at the time.  It is not until one has sufficient time to build up evidence (the doubts) that tip the balance from truth to falsehood.

So what does this have to do with Miami?  Absolutely nothing. I wanted to tell this story last week since it was Ohio State's first away game, but I didn't have time.  This week I have nothing to say about Miami, Miami University, or Miami (Ohio).

I am asking you to believe me, that I am telling you the truth and you should have no doubts, that Ohio State will win the game this weekend.  That being said, you should have doubts about the point spread, which started at 37 but has climbed to 39 (with an over/under of 58).  I've done some analysis about the Buckeyes as huge betting favorites in the past. Updating those stats to today we find Ohio State is 12-13 ATS when favored by 25-29; 8-11 when favored by 30-34; and 4-3 when favored by 35+.  In short, there are no good trends here. You should have major doubts. If you believe the doubts have tipped the scales then you should Listen to Admiral Akbar.

As for me, while I have my doubts, the feeling that I get from the 2019 Buckeyes is that they are not fooling around. I think the offense is gelling and going to continue to score. A. Lot.  And the defense looks very tough and ready to post another shutout. To paraphrase the immortal words of Steven Tyler, I think the train keeps a rollin'.  That leaves the question of the over/under because Ohio State may have to score 59 points themselves to make it.  I think they do.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 59, Miami/Miami University/Miami (Ohio) 7.

Season totals: 3-0 S/U

                        2-1 ATS

                        2-1 O/U

Bonus:  If you have never been to Oxford and need directions, ask El Monte Slim.

Cheech And Chong- Waiting for Dave Classic Cheech And Chong. This is of a Cheech and Chong cd. Enjoy!!