I’m not so worried about this one, which should scare me to
death.
If we play “our game” we could score 50 points on the
Wildcats. They will score but they won’t be able to score that
many. So, this should be similar to the Cal game but not a nail biter.
Historically, Northwestern just does not match up well with
Ohio State. The Wildcats were 9-4 and a top 25 team in 2008 when we last
played them. The Buckeyes won that matchup 45-10. Our
team that year had a Freshman QB, got blown out at USC, lost at home to Penn
State, and squeaked by Ohio, Troy, Purdue and even Minnesota. We were not
dominant by any means, yet we handled the Wildcats with ease. The years
immediately prior (no pun intended) had scores of 58-7, 54-10, and
48-7. That was playing Tresselball!
That being said, Northwestern did beat us in Evanston
at night in 2004. But that was Randy Walker’s team, not Pat
Fitzgerald’s. And honestly, the 2004 Buckeyes stunk that year. In
2002 we also played at Northwestern at night, and despite giving them 3
turnovers, we still won 27-15.
They have a very good offense. 18th in
rushing at 249.5 yds/game. 30th in total offense at 483.3, and
21st in scoring at 41.3. They use a 2 QB system – (2)
Kain Colter and (13) Trevor Sieman. Colter is the read option threat to
run, he is averaging 10 carries for 60 yards per game. He throws
short, high percentage passes: 27-35 for 264 yards. Sieman
rarely runs and is completing 67.1% of his passes. RB (22) Treyvon
Green has posted two 100-yard games in four, and is averaging 6.85 yards per
carry. WRs (6) Tony Jones and (14) Christian Jones catch the majority of
the passes. Northwestern is also a team that can move the sticks as
they rank 15th in 3rd down conversions with a 51.7% rate.
But then, there is the flip side. The pass
defense is their weakest link – ranking 117th in the nation.
Total defense is 87th, and scoring defense is 52nd.
The Wildcat defense is also 95th in 3rd down conversion,
allowing their opponents to convert 44.1% of their chances.
They do have 4 defensive scores though.
Now if the Northwestern defense had these stats against
quality competition that would be one thing. But the Wildcats have these
rankings after games with Cal, Syracuse (who lost to Penn State), Western
Michigan, and Maine. If FCS Maine and Western Michigan’s 115th
ranked offense can post good numbers against Northwestern, what will Braxton
Miller and the Buckeyes do?
Some misc. stats to complete the preview – the Buckeyes are
28-1 in the last 29 matchups in the series. Coach Pat Fitzgerald is
1-8 coming off a bye, and Northwestern is 1-6 S/U in the last 3 seasons as a
conference home dog. This is the third time the Buckeyes have had
consecutive prime time games and we won both in 2007 (at Min, at Pur) and 2012
(Neb, at Ind). Northwestern’s last victory over a top 5 team was a
14-10 defeat of No. 5 Iowa, back on October 3 1959. Finally, Coach
Fitzgerald has yet to beat either Ohio State or Penn State, and while he is
41-18 in August, September and November, he has a losing record in October
(12-17).
Northwestern will be fired up. Their offense
will probably score 14 first quarter points, especially with the absence of
Christian Bryant. But I think Ohio State will also score 14 or
more. And as the game goes on, the Buckeye defense (4th
in the nation in 3rd down conversions) will find a way to stop
Northwestern. Northwestern’s 110th ranked punter will
give the Buckeyes the field position edge. Meanwhile, after runs by Hyde,
Hall, Wilson, and Miller, the green Wildcat DBs (3 new starters) will get
torched by Devin Smith and Philly Brown. Unless the Buckeyes turn the
ball over 3-4 times (and Northwestern converts them to scores) I think the
Buckeyes win somewhat comfortably.
The line started at 4 on Monday but is up to 7 on
Wednesday. Money flowing to the Buckeyes. The over/under is
currently 59, which is shockingly low.
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