Wisconsin

Wisconsin.  This says it all.

You know, back when the season started, everyone was talking about next week’s trip to Northwestern being the “trap” game.  “Buckeyes better watch out for the Wildcats.”  Now, it seems (at least to me) that everyone is talking about the Northwestern matchup (with plans for ESPN College Game Day to be there) that this week’s game against Wisky is now the “trap” game.

The Badgers should be 4-0.   They should be No. 11 in the country.  They got jobbed in the desert and now are almost an afterthought.   But look at these stats - Wisconsin is No. 3 in the Nation in Rushing Offense, No. 12 in Total Offense, No. 6 in Rushing Defense,  No. 6 in Total Defense, and No. 10 in Scoring Defense.  Those rankings certainly get my attention.  They only lost 3 starters on offense – one of them being RB Monte Ball – so let’s look to see if they miss him?

So, Sophomore RB Melvin Gordon (25) is leading the nation in rushing with 624 yards, on only 53 carries!  That’s 12 yards every time he gets the ball!   Their starter, Senior RB James White (20), is No. 11 in the nation with 442 yards.  Both those guys have more yards that Jordan Hall, who comes in at No. 13 with 422.  Verdict:  Ball not missed at all.  They did lose 5 starters on defense, but you can see the rankings above, so apparently they filled those holes.  These Badgers look impressive, and thus, I have a bad feeling about this.

Yet, there is something about Wisconsin when we play them.  Even when we suck, things like this happen (c’mon – you knew I would link to this).  Wisconsin is 1-6 v. The Ohio State University in our last 7 match-ups.  They are 4-8-2 v. Ohio State when both teams are ranked, a not impressive 4-15-2 against top 5 teams, and a horrible 15-60-2 against ranked teams.  Granted, they did beat Ohio State twice – once when the Buckeyes were No. 1 (2010) and again when we were No. 3 (2003).  But both of those wins came in Madison and I think that is important.   Wisconsin is 0-4 in their last four Big Ten away night games and 1-7 in their last 8 Big Ten road openers.

Well, you say, they have a new coach so things are different.   Not so much.  First, Coach Gary Anderson (who was Urban Meyer’s DL coach in Utah) is 0-3 v. Top 10, 1-7 v. ranked teams, and 9-18 on the road as a head coach.  Sounds like the Badgers.   Wisconsin won their first two games at home v. UMass (0-4) and Tennessee Tech (FCS).  Sounds like a Barry Alvarez/Brett Bielema schedule to me.  (Speaking of Bielema, I’m so glad he’s gone, but can someone explain how he ended up married to her?)  Ok, where was I . . . ?

So, digging a little deeper, it looks like the Badgers have padded their stats against suspect competition (an accusation that can be made about the Buckeyes as well).  I mean, Arizona State, Purdue, and UMass are all in the bottom 15 of all FBS schools in rushing offense.  I don’t think one game v. Bucky Badger put them there – I think those teams don’t run the ball.   And it shouldn’t be too much of a shocker to you that UMass, Purdue, and even ASU aren’t that great at stopping the run either.  So throw those national rankings out the window because Wisky has not seen any competition like us yet.

But we haven’t seen anyone as tough as them either.  But for all their returning starters, Phil Steele only had 2 Badgers total on his 1^st and 2^nd team Big Ten defenses (compared to 6 for us – the team that was supposed to be gutted on D).  Wisconsin’s secondary is green and I believe susceptible to attack.   As they creep in to stop Carlos Hyde, Jordan Hall, and Dontre Wilson, either Braxton or Kenny will pop one over their heads to Devin Smith.    Wisconsin Sophomore QB Joel Stave is a good one and will get better, but I don’t think he’s quite to the level of Russell Wilson who led the Badgers to 2 late 4^th quarter TDs in 2011.   As for Braxton, I’m not worried about rust.   I think he will be fine, and I think he plays the entire game.

 Vegas started the Buckeyes as 7.5 favorites, but the line has crept down to 7.    More interesting  is that the Over/Under started at 60 and is now down to 54.5.   Apparently Vegas thinks this will be more of a slugfest.    According to Wisconsin’s athletic department, the Badgers broke the Buckeyes’ 19 game win streak in 2003 when it was the longest in the nation.   The Buckeyes currently have the nation’s longest win streak at 16.  But the UW AD also noted that the Badgers haven’t lost a game by more than 10 points since Oct. 10, 2009 when Ohio State beat them 31-13 (a span of 52 games).   It’s time for one of those streaks to end . . .

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 24.