Michigan

First of all, since The Game has been moved to Thanksgiving weekend, let me give thanks to each of you who take the time to read these missives.  I am also thankful that I attended The Ohio State University, that Urban Meyer accepted the offer to coach in Columbus, that the players – especially Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde, Ryan Shazier, and our OL & DL signed to play for the Buckeyes, and I am thankful that the University of Michigan exists so that we could have the best rivalry in all of sports.

Now to the game at hand. . .

Several years ago, ABC’s Keith Jackson opened up the broadcast of an Ohio State-Michigan game by stating that in big rivalry games the difference was “turnovers, turnovers, turnovers.”   At first blush, he could be correct.   Vegas has Ohio State as a 14-point favorite and Michigan is struggling.   It is logical to conclude that the only way the Buckeyes can lose (and the Wolverines can win) is if Ohio State gifts the ball over to Michigan.   Maybe that would work in most years, but I don’t think it will for the 2013 version of Michigan football.  You see, Brady Hoke’s team was +2  in turnovers v. Nebraska and still lost 13-17, and +3 v. Iowa and still lost 21-24.   That’s astounding.  (As an aside, Ohio State was -3 v. Indiana and still won by 28).

Michigan’s offense is struggling.  Or rather, Michigan’s offensive line is struggling, which in turn has cause their running game and QB Devin Gardner to struggle.  Granted, the weather last week in Iowa was bad, but UM’s offense had 10 drives which were 5 plays or less then punt.  8/10 were 3 and out.  One TD was a 7-yd INT return, and the other TDs came on short drives of 28 yards and 47 yards.   Again, last week’s weather was atypical.  But looking back at the Nebraska game at home two weeks earlier, you see similar stats.  9 of 11 drives were 5 plays or less and resulted in punts or turnover on downs.   One drive went 3 yards in 4 plays and resulted in a FG.  Michigan’s offense currently lacks the ability to put together two first downs together, let alone a long drive and march down the field.  Thus, field position will matter a great deal.

And the reasons for the Wolverines’ offense’s problems show up in the team’s stats.  Michigan is dead last in Tackles for Loss Allowed at 9.36/game.   They are 110^th in Sacks allowed at 2.91.   The math is fairly easy to understand – Michigan has run 701 offensive plays in 11 games, for 63.7/game.   12.27 of those plays are going backwards, or 1 in every 5.  Hard to do anything on offense with that ratio.  Compare that to Ohio State who have run 807 plays (73.4/game), and only 4.91 go backward (1 of every 15).

I have not seen much of Michigan play, but I am scared of Jeremy Gallon.  I could see him having an “Abberderis-type” day against Bradley Roby.   Michigan’s defense is also nothing to sneeze at.   Our running game will face its toughest test since Wisconsin.   And of course, the weather should be poor, but not awful.   The forecast right now calls for partly sunny skies, high of 36, with winds only at 11 mph.  I would not think that would impact throwing the ball much.

I am not worried about Ohio State overlooking this game and looking ahead to MSU.  This.  Is. Michigan.  And Urban gets that.  No one wants to lose to them no matter what the records are.  I think the team will be very focused.   I think Michigan will be fired up early.  My hope is that by halftime, Ohio State has opened up a 10+ point lead and deflates the Wolverines’ hope of an upset.  Then, we give them a steady diet of Carlos Hyde, and when they have the ball we tee-off on Gardner.    14 seems like a big number to me, especially in a rivalry game.  But I cannot see Michigan scoring more than 18 points given their offensive struggles.  Can Ohio State put up 33?  It’s close, very close, but I’m going conservative:

Schaef says:  Ohio State 31, Michigan 18.   Give the points, take the under (58).  Go Bucks!

Michgian Week - Photos

In preparation for Michigan week, I thought I would share some of my favorite photos from "The Game":

Go Bucks!

Indiana

It’s getting difficult to get fired up for these when for the 3^rd straight game we face a defense that is almost rock bottom in every meaningful statistic category.    So, rather than dissect the 2013 Hoosiers, let me take a different tact.

This is the final home game for a group of Buckeyes that had three head coaches and one losing season.  Yet, they have gone (so far) 40-8.   Again, with one losing season.  They also have 23 consecutive weeks being nationally ranked in the AP Top 10, a 22 game win streak and a 14 game Big Ten win streak.  Not too shabby.

Oh, and most importantly, they are 2-1 v. that team up North with one to play.

So, thank you to our DBs:   C.J. Barnett, Corey “Pitt” Brown, Christian Bryant, and Bradley Roby (as well as Adam Griffin and Jamie Wood);  WRs Corey “Philly” Brown and Chris Fields;  our OL of Marcus Hall, Corey Linsley, Jack Mewhort, and Andrew Norwell (as well as Ivon Blackmon);  the Special teams combo of LS George Makridis and K Drew Basil;  RB Jordan Hall, the “Gunslinger” QB Kenny Guiton, and of course "El Guapo" Carlos Hyde.    Let’s send these guys out with a win.

A win Saturday will break OSU’s record for longest consecutive wins, currently at 22.   We will also clinch the B1G Leaders division and guarantee a spot in the B1G Championship Game on December 7, 2013 at 8:00 p.m. in Indianapolis.

As for the Hoosiers, yes, they have a pretty good offense going in Bloomington.   But they are a different team on the road.  In 2013, Indiana is 0-3 S/U and ATS when away from Memorial Stadium.  In the last 10 years, Indiana is 11-42 on the road.   They have lost their last 20 v. ranked teams, no matter the venue, and haven’t beaten a ranked team on the road since September 11, 2004 (at Oregon – before Oregon was Oregon).

After last week’s uncomfortable win v. Illinois, there is no way the Buckeyes come out flat in this one.   I think Urban will send a message to the defense to do better than Wisconsin, which held Indiana to 3 points last week.   Carlos Hyde needs 50+ yards to get 1,000 and he should have that early in the 2^nd quarter.   I would expect the benches to empty in the 2^nd half to (a) get some lesser known seniors some playing time and (b) stay healthy for UM and MSU in the next 2 weeks. 

The line has moved up to 34.5 which is insane given Indiana’s offensive production this year.  And the O/U is an unbelievable 81.    If this was a warm day in late September or early October, I could see a shootout.   But I think the Buckeyes’ defense wants to atone for last week and I bet Meyer has given them plenty of incentive this week.   I see a lot of running and the time clock moving much faster than last week’s game.   I think OSU wins big, but not big enough to go with the over.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 54, Indiana 13.

Illinois

Honestly, I thought of just reprinting my Purdue preview and redline it substituting “Illini” for “Boilermakers.”    This is not Earle Bruce v. Mike White.   The Buckeyes have won 8 straight in Champaign-Urbana, and Illinois’ defense gives them no shot this year.   The Illini are 115^th in Rushing Defense, 89^th in Passing Defense, 114^th in Total Defense, and 104^th in Scoring Defense.    They are 109^th in 3^rd Down conversions against, allowing opponents to convert third downs 47% of the time.   When you put that defense up against Ohio State’s offense – who by the way is No. 3 nationally converting 3^rd downs at 54% - you have all the ingredients for a great day for the Buckeye offense.

Senior QB Nathan Scheelhaase (2) will make plays.   He will do his best “Johnny Football” impersonation and he’ll have to because his offensive line won’t be able to open any holes for the RBs to go through.  Illinois is 96^th in rushing offense, so Scheelhaase will throw 35 times this game.   Many of his passes will connect because they will be dump offs to RB Josh Ferguson (6), the Illini’s leading receiver.   Scheelhaase’s ability to scramble, throw on the run, or just take it himself, will guarantee that Illinois will score on the Buckeyes.  But it won’t be enough to outscore OSU.

So, if on paper this should be no contest, is there something else to be wary of?   And the answer (if you are one who subscribes to mysterious forces) is “yes.”

Since 1980, undefeated college football teams playing on the road in the regular season from Game No. 10 on out are 99-34-1 S/U but just 57-67-2 ATS.   This means that undefeated teams suffer their first defeat on the road late in the year 33% of the time.   Ok, not a surprising stat.   Now, pair up the undefeated team against an under the radar opponent who won 8 or fewer games last season, and watch the undefeated immediately play down to the level of the opposition, going 6-21 ATS.   Maybe some concern.   Finally, bring the undefeated team into the game coming off a win of 20 or more points (say 56-0) and they have real struggles, going just 3-19 ATS.  Warning!  Warning! (BTW, thanks to Vegasinsider.com for the stats).

Now, if the spread in this game was 7 or 8, maybe I’d be really concerned.   Instead, the line is at 33.5.   The over/under is currently 67.0.   I remain firmly convinced that unless the Buckeyes turn it over deep in their own end 5x, they are going to score 40+ on Illinois.  Without those turnovers, I don’t see Illinois scoring 40 on Ohio State.   20?  Maybe.   Covering the spread?   Probably.   Repeating 2007?  Nope.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 45, Illinois 21.