Illinois

Honestly, I thought of just reprinting my Purdue preview and redline it substituting “Illini” for “Boilermakers.”    This is not Earle Bruce v. Mike White.   The Buckeyes have won 8 straight in Champaign-Urbana, and Illinois’ defense gives them no shot this year.   The Illini are 115^th in Rushing Defense, 89^th in Passing Defense, 114^th in Total Defense, and 104^th in Scoring Defense.    They are 109^th in 3^rd Down conversions against, allowing opponents to convert third downs 47% of the time.   When you put that defense up against Ohio State’s offense – who by the way is No. 3 nationally converting 3^rd downs at 54% - you have all the ingredients for a great day for the Buckeye offense.

Senior QB Nathan Scheelhaase (2) will make plays.   He will do his best “Johnny Football” impersonation and he’ll have to because his offensive line won’t be able to open any holes for the RBs to go through.  Illinois is 96^th in rushing offense, so Scheelhaase will throw 35 times this game.   Many of his passes will connect because they will be dump offs to RB Josh Ferguson (6), the Illini’s leading receiver.   Scheelhaase’s ability to scramble, throw on the run, or just take it himself, will guarantee that Illinois will score on the Buckeyes.  But it won’t be enough to outscore OSU.

So, if on paper this should be no contest, is there something else to be wary of?   And the answer (if you are one who subscribes to mysterious forces) is “yes.”

Since 1980, undefeated college football teams playing on the road in the regular season from Game No. 10 on out are 99-34-1 S/U but just 57-67-2 ATS.   This means that undefeated teams suffer their first defeat on the road late in the year 33% of the time.   Ok, not a surprising stat.   Now, pair up the undefeated team against an under the radar opponent who won 8 or fewer games last season, and watch the undefeated immediately play down to the level of the opposition, going 6-21 ATS.   Maybe some concern.   Finally, bring the undefeated team into the game coming off a win of 20 or more points (say 56-0) and they have real struggles, going just 3-19 ATS.  Warning!  Warning! (BTW, thanks to Vegasinsider.com for the stats).

Now, if the spread in this game was 7 or 8, maybe I’d be really concerned.   Instead, the line is at 33.5.   The over/under is currently 67.0.   I remain firmly convinced that unless the Buckeyes turn it over deep in their own end 5x, they are going to score 40+ on Illinois.  Without those turnovers, I don’t see Illinois scoring 40 on Ohio State.   20?  Maybe.   Covering the spread?   Probably.   Repeating 2007?  Nope.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 45, Illinois 21.