Michigan

First of all, since The Game has been moved to Thanksgiving weekend, let me give thanks to each of you who take the time to read these missives.  I am also thankful that I attended The Ohio State University, that Urban Meyer accepted the offer to coach in Columbus, that the players – especially Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde, Ryan Shazier, and our OL & DL signed to play for the Buckeyes, and I am thankful that the University of Michigan exists so that we could have the best rivalry in all of sports.

Now to the game at hand. . .

Several years ago, ABC’s Keith Jackson opened up the broadcast of an Ohio State-Michigan game by stating that in big rivalry games the difference was “turnovers, turnovers, turnovers.”   At first blush, he could be correct.   Vegas has Ohio State as a 14-point favorite and Michigan is struggling.   It is logical to conclude that the only way the Buckeyes can lose (and the Wolverines can win) is if Ohio State gifts the ball over to Michigan.   Maybe that would work in most years, but I don’t think it will for the 2013 version of Michigan football.  You see, Brady Hoke’s team was +2  in turnovers v. Nebraska and still lost 13-17, and +3 v. Iowa and still lost 21-24.   That’s astounding.  (As an aside, Ohio State was -3 v. Indiana and still won by 28).

Michigan’s offense is struggling.  Or rather, Michigan’s offensive line is struggling, which in turn has cause their running game and QB Devin Gardner to struggle.  Granted, the weather last week in Iowa was bad, but UM’s offense had 10 drives which were 5 plays or less then punt.  8/10 were 3 and out.  One TD was a 7-yd INT return, and the other TDs came on short drives of 28 yards and 47 yards.   Again, last week’s weather was atypical.  But looking back at the Nebraska game at home two weeks earlier, you see similar stats.  9 of 11 drives were 5 plays or less and resulted in punts or turnover on downs.   One drive went 3 yards in 4 plays and resulted in a FG.  Michigan’s offense currently lacks the ability to put together two first downs together, let alone a long drive and march down the field.  Thus, field position will matter a great deal.

And the reasons for the Wolverines’ offense’s problems show up in the team’s stats.  Michigan is dead last in Tackles for Loss Allowed at 9.36/game.   They are 110^th in Sacks allowed at 2.91.   The math is fairly easy to understand – Michigan has run 701 offensive plays in 11 games, for 63.7/game.   12.27 of those plays are going backwards, or 1 in every 5.  Hard to do anything on offense with that ratio.  Compare that to Ohio State who have run 807 plays (73.4/game), and only 4.91 go backward (1 of every 15).

I have not seen much of Michigan play, but I am scared of Jeremy Gallon.  I could see him having an “Abberderis-type” day against Bradley Roby.   Michigan’s defense is also nothing to sneeze at.   Our running game will face its toughest test since Wisconsin.   And of course, the weather should be poor, but not awful.   The forecast right now calls for partly sunny skies, high of 36, with winds only at 11 mph.  I would not think that would impact throwing the ball much.

I am not worried about Ohio State overlooking this game and looking ahead to MSU.  This.  Is. Michigan.  And Urban gets that.  No one wants to lose to them no matter what the records are.  I think the team will be very focused.   I think Michigan will be fired up early.  My hope is that by halftime, Ohio State has opened up a 10+ point lead and deflates the Wolverines’ hope of an upset.  Then, we give them a steady diet of Carlos Hyde, and when they have the ball we tee-off on Gardner.    14 seems like a big number to me, especially in a rivalry game.  But I cannot see Michigan scoring more than 18 points given their offensive struggles.  Can Ohio State put up 33?  It’s close, very close, but I’m going conservative:

Schaef says:  Ohio State 31, Michigan 18.   Give the points, take the under (58).  Go Bucks!