Kentucky Derby 2014

            It is an annual rite of spring. Three-year-old thoroughbreds gather in Louisville, Kentucky to go a distance none of them have raced before.  Men dress up in nice suits, women wear spectacular hats, and people drink a whiskey and mint concoction that no one orders for the other 364 days of the year.  And I write a column about the race in which I tell you that the only certain thing is the uncertainty of the race.

            But not this year.  No, I am still writing a column, but there is no uncertainty in 2014.  That is because there is one horse who is the one to watch, the one to bet to win, and the one who will win.  That colt is California Chrome.

            Doubters come up with some reasons why he may not win.  He will be the favorite, but that jinx has been broken four times in the past ten years (Smarty Jones, 2004; Street Sense, 2007; Big Brown 2008; and Orb, 2013).  He has never raced at Churchill Downs, but his trainer, Art Sherman, has plenty of experience at the track.  Sherman was even an exercise rider for 1955 Derby winner Swaps.   Chrome may not be perfect but what he does have is a solid base of race experience and high stakes race wins in impressive fashion.

            Do yourself a favor and go to www.Bloodhorse.com.  They have all of the Derby prep races there for you to watch. Take a look at California Chrome’s San Felipe Stakes win, which was essentially a match race against Midnight Hawk.  Then look at Chrome’s easy win over Hoppertunity and Candy Boy in the Santa Anita Derby.  In both races, when he turned for home, Chrome separated himself from the field easily and without need for a whip.  He has a gear that other horses do not, and frankly a name that just sounds good.

            His path was made much easier when Florida Derby winner Constitution had to drop out due to injury.  The second best horse now may be Bob Baffert’s Hoppertunity, but if he could not come within six lengths of Chrome at Santa Anita, why should anyone think he can beat Chrome now?  Questions linger over Arkansas Derby winner Danza, whose past was so inconsistent that he went off as a 40-1 long shot.  He also received a dream ride when pre-race favorite Bayern strayed from the rail and allowed Danza to sneak through.  Ride On Curlin, who was second at Arkansas, deserves some consideration, especially considering that Calvin Borel will be aboard in the Derby.  But Borel likes to keep his horse very far back early and then pass the other horses along the rail. If the gaps on the inside are not there, he will eat up too much ground going wide.  Even with a perfect ride, Ride On Curlin probably does not have enough speed to catch Chrome.

Wicked Strong won the Wood, and performed very well in New York, but very poorly in Florida.  He may also have a problem with large crowds and he is going to see his biggest crowd ever in Louisville.  General A Rod, despite his name, has a pedigree that suggests he could win.  Then again, he could not finish ahead of Wildcat Red in either the Fountain of Youth Stakes or the Florida Derby, and Red is going to be in the field on Saturday.  As for Wildcat Red, he has never had a bad race, but the Derby distance may be just too far for him to carry his early speed.  He’s a good horse to bet for second or third.

            For once the choice is clear.  There is no horse entered that has matched California Chrome’s results.  He’s good on paper and he’s great on the track.  And barring a bad post-position, an off-track, or simply bad luck, there is no reason to think that Seattle Slew’s great-grandson won’t be in the winner’s circle late Saturday, adorned with a blanket of red roses, and poised for a Triple Crown run.  Of this, I am certain.