Maryland

It’s pretty intimidating playing Maryland when you realize the Terrapins have NEVER lost a B1G game in their history.  Ohio State will try and end that streak Saturday at noon.

Maryland is 4-1, with road wins over South Florida, Syracuse, and Indiana and a home win v. James Madison.  They lost at home to WVa on a last second FG.   But when I look at the stats I wonder ‘how has Maryland won any games?’  They do nothing exceptionally well.   Comparatively, the Buckeyes are significantly better in almost every key category.  I was able to make some sense of them though and 3 things stood out.

First, Maryland’s defense in 89^th in total yards, and 107^th in first downs allowed.  Not surprisingly, Maryland is 79^th in time of possession.  But, Maryland is 5^th in red zone defense.   They bend, but they don’t break. 

Second, Maryland is very good in the return game. 5^th in punt returns nationally (1^st in B1G) with 2 TDs already, and 20^th nationally in kickoff returns (again 1^st in B1G), although former Buckeye recruiting target, WR Stefon Diggs, is 11^th nationally on his own with 29.4 ypr.  So, if they do force a punt or concede a FG, they are going to give themselves good field position.

Lastly, they have a strong, accurate kicker.  Junior Brad Craddock is 10/10 so far this year and 6/6 from 40+.  If Maryland gets the ball across midfield, odds are they are going to come away with some points.

INTERMISSION:  Did you know that the campus with the most ESPN College Game Day visits is Ohio State?  The Buckeyes have hosted Fowler, Corso, and Herbstreit 13 times and won 10.  The last visit was November 13, 2010 when Penn State came to town.

Maryland opened a 10 point underdog, but the line has decreased to 8.5.  The over/under is 58.  Saturday’s forecast is 65 with only a 20% chance of rain.  Cincinnati scared me, and if the ref had called Eli Apple for defensive holding instead of offensive interference on them when it was 36-28, I wonder how that game would have ended.  Maryland has the experienced QB and the WRs to cause us major headaches and we could see several long pass plays.  Their defense is better than the Bearcats so we won’t have nearly as easy a time on offense.  Coach Randy Edsall is 0-8 v. Top 25 teams, so this could be a signature win for the program.  His team is 3-3 ATS as a home dog. 

I see a similar game as Cincinnati, though without the early turnover in our favor and without the Swiss cheese opposition defense.  I see a slugfest of big plays from Maryland v. a pounding from the OSU rushing game.  I’m really tempted to take Maryland and the points, but I think the Buckeyes will score late to cover.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 37, Maryland 27.