Xichigan

Three things I know:  (1) I am thankful for my family, my general physical and mental health, and you guys;  (2) holiday air travel is too crowded and very expensive, but I’m doing it anyway; and (3) I cannot predict an Ohio State – Michigan game accurately to save my life.

How about my low scoring affair between No. 1 & No. 2?  Nope.  Largest point total ever (until 2013).   How about my blowout between undefeated Buckeyes and offensively challenged Wolverines?  Nope. One point squeaker while making Devin Gardner look like the next Drew Brees.

Michigan is 1-3 both S/U and ATS away from Ann Arbor.  They are 0-3 S/U and 1-2 ATS as Road Dog.  And against ranked teams this year, Michigan is 0-2 S/U and ATS.  The Maize & Blue have scored 45 points in 4 road games while giving up 101.   Their offense is 113^th in passing, 114^th in Total Offense, and 111^th in scoring.   They are 119^th in turnover margin, 107^th in Net Punting, and 106^th in First Downs.   Their coach appears to be a lame duck and they are not guaranteed of a bowl game.   Not surprising, Vegas has the Buckeyes favored by 21.   Wow!  It looks like I just typed twenty-one.  Let me look at that again.  Holy crap!  It is 21.  AND YET, get this, the over/under is 41.5.   I dare you, I double dare you, to find another line like that.   Vegas is basically saying, one team will score a bunch and the other team not so much. (A bit of perspective, during the 2 years The Game was played in Columbus in the Tressel v. Rich Rod era, the Buckeyes were favored by 17 in 2010, and 20 in 2008 – a year in which Michigan went 3-9).

Pencil in a 31-7 Buckeye victory?  Not so fast my friend.  Michigan is playing for pride – just like last year and see how close that turned out.  They are playing for a bowl invitation.  They are playing for Hoke – make fun of him all you want – but that guy is a class act.   Remember the Buckeye fan who named his cancer “Michigan”?  Hoke invited the kid and his family up last year’s game and gave the HIS TICKETS and visited with them on the field before kickoff.  He’s a good man.   I’d like him to stay.  But unless he beats “Ohio” and wins a bowl game . . .

Those Michigan stats?   Wolverines are 9^th in rushing defense, 9^th in total defense, 21^st is scoring defense, 13^th in first downs allowed, 2^nd in fewest penalties per game, and 5^th in fewest penalty yards per game.   Michigan’s offense may suck, but their defense is going to make you earn your victory.

Ohio State is a young team (more bad news for the Maize & Blue).  I can see us coming out a little too pumped up.  J.T. Barrett’s first few passes sail over the heads of his receivers.   A couple of defenders hit a guy a second after the whistle and there is some drive sustaining yellow laundry.  Next thing you know, it’s the middle of the 2^nd quarter and it is a tight game.  Then the kids get tighter, Michigan gets confident, and Urban Meyer gets more gray hairs.

This is the Devin Gardner I want to see.  And I think I will see something like this once or twice.  But I’m also going to see Devin Funchess in the end zone once or twice too, and I’m going to hear this more than I want to.  But, in the end, the Buckeyes will have too many weapons and enough answers to solve the Hoke-Gardner conundrum.   If I was a betting man – and hey, look at that, I am – I would take Michigan and the points and bet the over.   (Probably just guaranteed 30-0 Buckeye victory.  And if I did, bully for me).

Until next week . . . I leave you with this.   Go Bucks!  O – H!!

Indiana

Sigh.   How can we get excited about a game against a school whose fight song says:

“Indiana, oh Indiana

Indiana, we’re not Purdue,

Indiana, oh Indiana

We suck so bad we’ll lose to you.”

Don’t believe me?   Click here. (And pay close attention to the directions on how to make the “I” then “U” symbols with your arms).  Side note – I got accepted to IU’s law school and gave very serious consideration to going there.   God, I’m glad I didn’t.  Double sided note – I dislike Tom Crean.  Immensely. But I digress.

Remember when IU went into Columbia and upset No. 18 Missouri?   Yeah, neither do I.  But apparently they did and it was good for the B1G.   Well, apparently they had Nate Sudfeld at QB then, but he went down with an injury in the Iowa game and they’ve lost 5 straight and been outscored 193-86.   During that time they’ve lost to offensive juggernauts like Rutgers, Penn State, and that team up North.  Please re-read that last sentence again.

And our history against Indiana – well I’ve put together a video of highlights from past games for you.   We are 69-12-5 against the Hoosiers.   We’ve won 19 consecutive matchups.  Aside from that nightmare stretch in 1987-1988, you have to go back to 1951 to find another Indiana victory.  And Indiana comes into this matchup with some astounding statistics – 116^th in passing offense, 101^st in passing defense, 88^th in scoring offense, 104^th in scoring defense, 107^th in turnover margin, 120^th in 3^rd down offense, 125^th in red zone defense, 104^th in fewest penalty yards – I could go on. . . there are more bad stats.    After giving it some serious thought, I cannot come up with a key play from any Indiana game, let alone a key game in the series.   I did find this though (go to 54:00 exactly).

Last year, the Buckeyes won 42-14 in the cold and snow.   Both our offense and defense are better than last year.  Unfortunately, tomorrow is supposed to be mid-40s and showers, which may slow down our passing game, and Indiana does have a decent RB.  The line is Ohio State -34.5 with an over/under of 64.5.  Since Sudfeld went down, Indiana only covered once (barely against Penn State) and the rest of the games have not been close.  The Hoosiers inability to score also means the under isn’t a bad play.

The Buckeyes will not lose focus – not sitting at No. 6 in the latest poll and not with style points being critical.   That being said, look for most starters to be pulled early in the 3^rd quarter to save them for scUM and the B1G Championship.  I think I’ll take Indiana and the points and the under, just because the Hoosiers will get a late score against our 4^th team defense.   I also think we will rush for nearly 400 yards and the game will be a quicker one. 

Schaef says:  Ohio State 42, Indiana 13. 

Minnesota

When I think about playing the Gophers this week,  the first thing that comes to mind is this.

Really, there’s not a lot of recent history with this team.  I mean, the last time we played Minnesota was 2 head coaches again, 2 QBs ago, and I think the second year of TCF Bank Stadium.  Of the “traditional” B1G teams, we’ve only played MSU less times than the Gophers.  What history there is – well, it’s not pretty for Minnesota. The Buckeyes have won virtually every matchup (including all of them in Minneapolis) since 1981.   That’s 23 of the last 24 (the exception being Glen Mason’s upset of the No. 5 Buckeyes in 2000 -Cooper’s last year).   Ohio State is 43-7 in the 50 matchups, an .860 winning percentage.   Let’s put it another way – if you go back 110 years and take ALL the teams we’ve played at least 10 times in our history, the Buckeyes have a better winning percentage against only one other team . . . Indiana.  In case I’m not making my point clear, when Minnesota plays Ohio State, this is usually what happens to the Gophers’ hopes of victory.

This year may be different though.  Minnesota is 7-2 and just blew out a decent Iowa team.  They are ranked No. 25 by the College Football Committee.  And we get the Gophers after an emotional win v. Sparty.  At 11:00 a.m. CST.  In snow.  (Did you know – Minnesota is 8-2 in their last ten 11:00 a.m. starts?)

Here’s what you need to know about the Gophers – they play from ahead.   They get down early, it’s tough for them to come back because they have the 120^th ranked passing offense in the nation (in fairness, they did come back from deficits v. Illinois – LOSS, and Purdue – WIN, but those were against Illinois, and Purdue).   They are not going to methodically drive down the field either, as they are 104^th in first downs.  What they are going to do is play good defense and not make any mistakes.  They will wait for you to make them then capitalize.  If they get up early, they are going to go all Rowdy Roddy Piper on us and put us in the sleeper hold.  We will wake up on the bus to the airport with a loss wondering what happened to us.

The line is currently Ohio State -14 with the over/under at 56.5.   I’m scared about a letdown.  I’m concerned about the weather.  I am concerned about the Gophers.   On the other hand we are rolling.   We got mo.   And maybe the Gophers are hungover from last week’s big win in the Floyd of Rosedale game.  And in looking at Minnesota’s schedule, there’s not a lot of tough wins out there – save Iowa.  I’m going to say we don’t let them get the early lead and we continue our offensive prowess.   I will even predict that the Buckeyes cover – barely - in a 35-20 final.  And I guess I’m taking the under.

Michigan State

First, some fun.  This never gets old.  Ever.

Anyway . . . so this is what is it (supposedly) like in the SEC every week, huh?  The de facto B1G championship game in Week 9 in East Lansing.  Sparty looks impressive, but let’s take a closer look.   MSU has defeated Nebraska, and lost at Oregon.  Excluding FCS Jacksonville State, Sparty’s other 5 FBS opponents are a combined 16-28 with none being over .500 and none of them will probably go bowling (yeah, that includes you Michigan).   Meanwhile, OSU has lost to Va. Tech, and excluding Kent State (essentially an FCS team), the rest of the Buckeyes’ opponents are 28-28.  I would not be surprised if 5 or 6 of them end up in a bowl.   So, yes, MSU has some pretty gaudy statistics, but have they beefed up that resume on a schedule that is weaker than the Buckeyes?

The Answer:  No.   And who cares?   Schedule aside, Michigan State is pretty awesome.    If they are properly motivated, I would put them up with any team in the country.   And they should be motivated for Saturday’s tussle.  Yet, here’s a nugget or two for you:  Ohio State is 28-14 v. MSU, including 14-5 in East Lansing.  Dantonio is 2-3 v. the Buckeyes, but 0-2 at home.   In 2012, No. 14 Ohio State beat No. 20 MSU 17-16. (the play you remember is at the 2:30 mark). So what was the difference in us winning away in 2012 but losing 34-24 in Indianapolis last year?   I don’t think it was poor coverage by our secondary or poor tackling by our defense.  Rather it was third down conversions.

In 2012, the Buckeyes were 6-13 on 3^rd downs (with the last one being a knee at the end of the game).   Only one play was a run for Carlos Hyde.  All the other attempts were Braxton Miller runs or throws to Philly Brown.  Distance did not matter.   We converted, kept the ball, improved field position, and eventually won.  MSU figured that out last year as we went 1-10 on 3^rd downs in the championship game.  The only one we converted was a Carlos Hyde run.  The other 9 attempts were Braxton runs or incomplete passes.   Distance didn’t matter as we could not convert even short yardage situations.  MSU was not going to let Braxton beat us, but our offense did not adjust to try something different, like, I don’t know, perhaps giving Carlos Hyde the ball on 3^rd down.

Let’s pause for you to admire the gift/curse that is Arianna Grande.  Unless you are a dog whose ears bleed when she sings. (2:30 here).  If all this is lost on you, my apologies.

Back to Braxton.  He’ll be in a warm-up suit on the sidelines.  Meanwhile, MSU has had 2 weeks to game plan for J.T. Barrett and had the benefit of seeing how Va. Tech and Penn State frustrated him/us.  Our offensive staff must design a game plan to add protection for Barrett, especially on 3^rd down.  Also, if MSU keys on Barrett running on 3^rd down, we need to give them a steady diet of Elliott and Samuel.  If the Buckeyes can do a half-decent job on 3^rd downs (or not even get into a 3^rd down situation on offense) they can win this game.

ESPN Game Day will be there and one positive is that Michigan State is 2-4 when Game Day comes to East Lansing.  Another positive is that for MSU’s gaudy stats noted above, Ohio State’s stats in all categories actually match up nicely with MSU’s.  (page 2 on link).    I was sure this was going to be a 10-14 point win for Michigan State, and I thought that Vegas would put the line at OSU +6 and it would be easy money for you.   Well, the Vegas line is OSU +3.5, which instead of investing my son’s college tuition on MSU, instead causes me some pause.  Have I gone too far in my pessimism?  Are the Buckeyes better than I think and is Michigan State not so great?  . . . Nah!  Our New Year’s Eve Peach Bowl invite v. Notre Dame will get engraved at about 11:45 p.m. Saturday night.  Take the Spartans and give the points, and bet the under (57.5).

Schaef says:  Michigan State 31, Ohio State 21.