Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Xichigan

Three things I know:  (1) I am thankful for my family, my general physical and mental health, and you guys;  (2) holiday air travel is too crowded and very expensive, but I’m doing it anyway; and (3) I cannot predict an Ohio State – Michigan game accurately to save my life.

How about my low scoring affair between No. 1 & No. 2?  Nope.  Largest point total ever (until 2013).   How about my blowout between undefeated Buckeyes and offensively challenged Wolverines?  Nope. One point squeaker while making Devin Gardner look like the next Drew Brees.

Michigan is 1-3 both S/U and ATS away from Ann Arbor.  They are 0-3 S/U and 1-2 ATS as Road Dog.  And against ranked teams this year, Michigan is 0-2 S/U and ATS.  The Maize & Blue have scored 45 points in 4 road games while giving up 101.   Their offense is 113th in passing, 114th in Total Offense, and 111th in scoring.   They are 119th in turnover margin, 107th in Net Punting, and 106th in First Downs.   Their coach appears to be a lame duck and they are not guaranteed of a bowl game.   Not surprising, Vegas has the Buckeyes favored by 21.   Wow!  It looks like I just typed twenty-one.  Let me look at that again.  Holy crap!  It is 21.  AND YET, get this, the over/under is 41.5.   I dare you, I double dare you, to find another line like that.   Vegas is basically saying, one team will score a bunch and the other team not so much. (A bit of perspective, during the 2 years The Game was played in Columbus in the Tressel v. Rich Rod era, the Buckeyes were favored by 17 in 2010, and 20 in 2008 – a year in which Michigan went 3-9).

Pencil in a 31-7 Buckeye victory?  Not so fast my friend.  Michigan is playing for pride – just like last year and see how close that turned out.  They are playing for a bowl invitation.  They are playing for Hoke – make fun of him all you want – but that guy is a class act.   Remember the Buckeye fan who named his cancer “Michigan”?  Hoke invited the kid and his family up last year’s game and gave the HIS TICKETS and visited with them on the field before kickoff.  He’s a good man.   I’d like him to stay.  But unless he beats “Ohio” and wins a bowl game . . .

Those Michigan stats?   Wolverines are 9th in rushing defense, 9th in total defense, 21st is scoring defense, 13th in first downs allowed, 2nd in fewest penalties per game, and 5th in fewest penalty yards per game.   Michigan’s offense may suck, but their defense is going to make you earn your victory.

Ohio State is a young team (more bad news for the Maize & Blue).  I can see us coming out a little too pumped up.  J.T. Barrett’s first few passes sail over the heads of his receivers.   A couple of defenders hit a guy a second after the whistle and there is some drive sustaining yellow laundry.  Next thing you know, it’s the middle of the 2nd quarter and it is a tight game.  Then the kids get tighter, Michigan gets confident, and Urban Meyer gets more gray hairs.

This is the Devin Gardner I want to see.  And I think I will see something like this once or twice.  But I’m also going to see Devin Funchess in the end zone once or twice too, and I’m going to hear this more than I want to.  But, in the end, the Buckeyes will have too many weapons and enough answers to solve the Hoke-Gardner conundrum.   If I was a betting man – and hey, look at that, I am – I would take Michigan and the points and bet the over.   (Probably just guaranteed 30-0 Buckeye victory.  And if I did, bully for me).


Until next week . . . I leave you with this.   Go Bucks!  O – H!!

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