First, some fun. This never gets old.
Ever.
Anyway . . . so this is what is it (supposedly) like in the
SEC every week, huh? The de facto B1G championship game in Week 9 in East
Lansing. Sparty looks impressive, but let’s take a closer
look. MSU has defeated Nebraska, and lost at Oregon.
Excluding FCS Jacksonville State, Sparty’s other 5 FBS opponents are a combined
16-28 with none being over .500 and none of them will probably go bowling
(yeah, that includes you Michigan). Meanwhile, OSU has lost to Va.
Tech, and excluding Kent State (essentially an FCS team), the rest of the
Buckeyes’ opponents are 28-28. I would not be surprised if 5 or 6 of them
end up in a bowl. So, yes, MSU has some pretty gaudy
statistics, but have they beefed up that resume on a schedule that is
weaker than the Buckeyes?
The Answer: No. And who cares?
Schedule aside, Michigan State is pretty awesome. If they are
properly motivated, I would put them up with any team in the country.
And they should be motivated for Saturday’s tussle. Yet,
here’s a nugget or two for you: Ohio State is 28-14 v. MSU, including
14-5 in East Lansing. Dantonio is 2-3 v. the Buckeyes, but 0-2 at
home. In 2012, No.
14 Ohio State beat No. 20 MSU 17-16. (the play you remember is at the 2:30
mark). So what was the difference in us winning away in 2012 but losing 34-24
in Indianapolis last year? I don’t think it was poor coverage by
our secondary or poor tackling by our defense. Rather it was third down
conversions.
In 2012, the Buckeyes were 6-13 on 3rd downs
(with the last one being a knee at the end of the game). Only one
play was a run for Carlos Hyde. All the other attempts were Braxton
Miller runs or throws to Philly Brown. Distance did not
matter. We converted, kept the ball, improved field position, and
eventually won. MSU figured that out last year as we went 1-10 on 3rd
downs in the championship game. The only one we converted was a Carlos
Hyde run. The other 9 attempts were Braxton runs or incomplete
passes. Distance didn’t matter as we could not convert even short
yardage situations. MSU was not going to let Braxton beat us, but our
offense did not adjust to try something different, like, I don’t know, perhaps
giving Carlos Hyde the ball on 3rd down.
Let’s pause for you to admire the gift/curse that is Arianna Grande.
Unless you are a dog whose
ears bleed when she sings. (2:30 here). If all this is lost on you,
my apologies.
Back to Braxton. He’ll be in a warm-up suit on the
sidelines. Meanwhile, MSU has had 2 weeks to game plan for J.T. Barrett
and had the benefit of seeing how Va. Tech and Penn State frustrated
him/us. Our offensive staff must design a game plan to add protection for
Barrett, especially on 3rd down. Also, if MSU keys on Barrett
running on 3rd down, we need to give them a steady diet of Elliott
and Samuel. If the Buckeyes can do a half-decent job on 3rd
downs (or not even get into a 3rd down situation on offense) they
can win this game.
ESPN Game Day will be there and one positive is that
Michigan State is 2-4 when Game Day comes to East Lansing. Another
positive is that for MSU’s gaudy stats noted above, Ohio
State’s stats in all categories actually match up nicely with MSU’s.
(page 2 on link). I was sure this was going to be a 10-14
point win for Michigan State, and I thought that Vegas would put the line at
OSU +6 and it would be easy money for you. Well, the Vegas line is
OSU +3.5, which instead of investing my son’s college tuition on MSU, instead
causes me some pause. Have I gone too far in my pessimism? Are the
Buckeyes better than I think and is Michigan State not so great? . . .
Nah! Our New Year’s Eve Peach Bowl invite v. Notre Dame will get engraved
at about 11:45 p.m. Saturday night. Take the Spartans and give the
points, and bet the under (57.5).
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