Memo to Michigan fan

Kudos to www.mgoblog.com for its article on JT Barrett did make the 1st down in 2OT.  That article took guts.  And thanks to Michigan fans showing support and sympathy for the terrorist attack on OSU's campus on 11/28/16.   But this is for the few/some/many UM fans who just cannot let it go.

Let me take you back to 2007 when Ohio State was No. 1 and Illinois came into the Shoe.

On the 3rd play from scrimmage, the Illini RB broke free but dropped the ball at the 2 yard line on his way to the end zone and we recovered (but the refs gave them the ball anyway and they scored a TD on the next play).  And at the end of the 1st half an Illini WR (No. 9 Benn?) clearly and intentionally took out 2 OSU defenders on a blatant pick (watch here and make sure you stay for the replay), and the Buckeyes eventually lost our No. 1 ranking and our (then) chance for the BCS championship.

After that game, do you remember the letter writing campaign we Buckeye fans started to protest the game to the B1G office and demand that the result be overturned?

Of course you don’t because we didn’t.   We were pissed but we manned up and took the loss.  We realized that while those mistakes hurt us, so did our inability to stop Juice Williams in the 4^th quarter.  The refs didn’t cost us the game, we did.

I grow tired of UM fan’s wanting to blame everyone and everything but their team and their coach.  Michigan got out yarded 121-5 in the 4^th quarter.   You threw 2 INTs deep in your own territory.  You fumbled on our 2 yard line.  Oh, and as for Ohio State holding on “each and every play” (see comment section of MGoBlog) you want to know the number of Offensive Holding penalties called on Michigan?  Zero.  That’s right.  No offensive holding penalties called on EITHER offense through 4 quarters and 2 OTs.   And what is even more amazing, is that Michigan has not been called for Offensive Holding since the first half of the MSU game - that's now 20 straight quarters plus 2 OT sessions.  The odds of that happening "naturally" must be staggering.

Get over UM because if either Clemson or Washington lose this weekend, you might just slip back in.

Penn State

Oh, if it’s Penn State week then you know this about the Nittany Lions.  Unless I’m wrong, this will be the sixth consecutive 8 p.m. kickoff for this matchup. We get Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit again, but this week they better have a lot more filler material.

Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy.  When James Franklin came to Happy Valley – PSU fans were all giddy and saying things like this.  Welp, Coach is 18-14 at PSU to date and his signature win at PSU is . . . Rutgers?  Illinois?  Akron?.  Seriously, I don’t think the Nittany Lions have beaten a team that has won 8 games in season the last few years.  Franklin is 0-9 v. Top 10 teams, and 1-14 v. Top 25 teams dating back to his years at Vanderbilt.   Penn State played Xichigan earlier this year and it was, well, not pretty.

The Buckeyes have won the last 4 in the series and the last 4 in State College.  We all remember the one from 2 years ago in which Ohio State blew a 17 point halftime lead, the game went to overtime and then Joey Bosa found a new use for the fullback.  The important thing to remember about that game was the Penn State was No. 1 in the Nation in Rushing Defense, No. 6 in Total Defense, and No. 6 in Scoring Defense going into the match.  They were very, very good defensively.  This year’s squad?  Try, 103^rd v. the run.  To be fair, the Nittany Lions have played some stellar competition, including Kent State, Temple, Minnesota, and Maryland.  #sarcasm. 

On offense they still have Soph. RB Saquon Barkley (26) who ran for 195 against us last year.  And Soph. QB Trace McSorley (9) has shown flashes of, well, not brilliance, but capability.  But in looking at the stats, you wonder how they have done anything this year?  123^rd in 3^rd down conversions, 102^nd in 1^st downs, 105^th in time of possession.   And even with Barkley in the backfield they are 88^th in rushing offense.   It seems they can put together 1 or 2 sustained drives per game then they hope for a turnover, punt return, or shanked punt on the other side to give them field position.

Vegas has the Buckeyes as a 19.5 point favorite with the over/under at 58.   Weather in Happy Valley should be mid-40s, cloudy, and windy.  The weather conditions, our running capabilities, and Penn State’s porous run defense seem to set up a perfect situation where the Buckeyes pound it 50 times for 330 yards on the ground.  J.T. Barrett will have to throw a little to keep the Nittany Lions honest, but I think we will spread them out and do a ton of zone reads and bubble screens.  Like Wisconsin, Penn State has had a week off, but unlike the Badgers, PSU is 0-5 following a bye.   Will the Buckeyes be a little slow to get started after last week’s emotional win?  I don’t think so.  The White Out will get our squad ready.   One stat will have to give in this matchup:  Penn State scores more point progressively each quarter, while the Buckeyes shut down opponents as the game goes on (see below):

                      1^st  2^nd   3^rd   4^th   OT                               1^st   2^nd     3^rd  4^th   OT

Penn State    34   44   47   52      6                Ohio State    50   100    77   62   7

Opponents    48   58   21   41      3                Opponents   30    26      14     7   0

Penn State, we know Wisconsin.  We played Wisconsin.  You are no Wisconsin.  I think Ohio State enjoys great success running.  I do not think PSU will do likewise.  We will force McSorley to throw and the secondary will get at least two picks.   I like the Buckeyes to show no ill effects from the Badger game.   I like Ohio State to win and cover.

Schaef says:   Ohio State 49, Penn State 17.  

Wisconsin

Man, almost every sign points to this being a very bad weekend. 

The Badgers are 7-2 at home in Top 10 matchups, including winning the last 6 in a row.  Wisconsin is 6-0 following a loss and 8-1 coming off a bye.  While Ohio State is 5-2 at Camp Randall stadium, the Buckeyes are 1-2 in the last 3 night games played there.

Oh, and the Badgers have the revenge factor going for them since the last time we played the score was 59-0.

The Badgers have already beaten LSU and MSU, and played UM very close in AA.  Meanwhile, after steamrolling through our first 4, we looked shaky at home v. Indiana.  Vegas has the Buckeyes a 10 point favorite with the O/U at 44.  With the weather to be a bit breezy with a chance of T-storms, everything screams "take the Badgers and the points!!!"   But should we?

Is the Badger D good?  The answer:  Yes.  6th in Rush D (90.4/g), 4th is Scoring D (12.2/g), and 5th in 3rd Down Conversion D (.230).  It's tough to run on them, tough to keep drives going, and tough to score on them.  But have they played anyone with an offense that is as potent as ours?  No.   Even with last week's dismal performance v. Indiana, our Total Offense is ranked 5th at 537.6 ypg.   By comparison, Wisconsin's opponents have been ranked 35, 68, 79, 102, and 125 in total offense.  Is that because they played Wisconsin or because they are not that good?   Upon closer examination, the Badgers' passing defense is average - 35th and giving up 201 ypg.  So the passing offense statistics for their opponents should not have suffered greatly in facing the Badgers.  But the Passing Off of Wisky's opponents?  29 (Akron), 77 (Ga. State), 84 (Michigan), 86 (MSU), and 112 (LSU).  So, it appears that either Wisconsin did not have to worry about the pass and could focus on stopping the run.  Or, when Wisconsin shut down the run, these teams had difficulty converting through the air.

Ohio State was rolling through the air until last week's 90 yard performance (we fell from 58th to 85th).  Even so, we are still 3rd in Rush O (323.6), 5th in Total O (537.6), and 3rd in Scoring O (53.2).  The Badgers have yet to see anything like us.  

Wisconsin's offense is opportunistic, but that's about it.  They are now starting a largely immobile Redshirt Freshman at QB behind an offensive line that consists of 4 Sophomores and 1 Junior.   They are 78th in Rushing O (161.6), 97th in Passing O (198.6), 106th in Total O (360.2), and 88th in Scoring O (26.0).  They are 38th in Sacks allowed and 56th in turnover margin.  

The way the Badgers want to win is the Jim Tressel way - win field position, take advantage of a turnover for a short field, and win time of possession.  Ohio State, however, is better than the Badgers in each of those categories.  Ohio State is 2nd in Net Punting (46.71) v. Wisconsin who is 116th (33.91).   Ohio State is 4th in turnover margin with +8 on the year, v. Wisconsin who is at 0.  And the Buckeyes hold the ball for an average of 36 minutes per game v. the Badgers 34.   

This will be a slugfest and Cameron Johnston will have to punt more than normal.  However, I think he pins Wisconsin deep repeatedly and we force 3 and outs which will give us the shorter field.   J.T. may throw a pick and/or we may allow a KO return for a TD which will make the game closer.  But I think Greg Schiano will have our D dialed in to shut down the Badger offense, and I think we have too many weapons, too much speed, and a more difficult offense to defend than Wisconsin is used to.  So, I'm not doubting these Buckeyes.   i think you give the points.   Given the iffy weather, I'd stay away from the O/U, but if pressed, go with the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 10.

Tulsa

I knew there was something about Tulsa, but I could not figure it out until today.  It’s this guy, who ran their program from 1977-1984.  Good times.  Good times.

Some random facts about Tulsa (*from the University’s “Game Notes”):

TULSA IS THE SMALLEST FBS SCHOOL . . .

Rk School Undergrad Enrollment

1. Tulsa         3,473

2. Rice           3,926

3. Air Force    3,952

4. Navy          4,511

5. Army          4,414 [sic – not my list, it is theirs]

6. Wake Forest  4,867

The TULSA Key:

We are . . . The University of Tulsa, not Tulsa University     (Chip, meet shoulder)

We are . . . TU, not UT                                                              (Explain this to older University of Toledo fans/grads)

We are . . . the Golden Hurricane, not the Hurricanes           (Duly noted. You are not Miami).

First, I hope you all caught my footnote to last week’s prediction that the forecast was for the 1^st half only.  If you doubled it (as you should have done) my prediction was 72-34 which was must closer to what actually happened.   Seriously, though, who could have seen that coming?   I would like to say that I think it’s time for Matt Millen to retire from the broadcast booth.  What do you say to that Matt?  Good, I’m glad that is settled.

Since the end result of this game is not in question (Tulsa is like playing Purdue or Rutgers), let’s discuss how to play it.  Bill, look away.

As you know, Ohio State has a love-hate relationship with Week 2.  In the Urban Meyer era, when Ohio State has covered in Week One, the Buckeyes are 0-3 ATS in Week 2.  This is not a situation solely of Meyer’s making.  Six times in nine years, the Senator and Fickell failed to cover in Week 2 after covering in Week 1.   This stat causes me great angst.  Add to that fact that we are favored by 28.5 and Urban is 7-9 ATS in games OSU is a 25+ point favorite, including 0-5 in the last 5. 

Tulsa, meanwhile, is 3-18 S/U in road openers and 0-12 S/U against ranked opponents.  More important to our discussion, Tulsa is 7-2 ATS as a road dog the last 2 years, including covering at Oklahoma in 2015 when getting 30.5 (final 38-52).  All signs point to a Golden Hurricane cover of the spread.

But what if we factor in that we have a brand new bunch of players, hungry to play and to prove themselves.   And then factor in that Tulsa’s defense is bad.  Scary bad.  Really, scary bad.  Would that be enough to change the outcome?

Tulsa does have a potent, high tempo offense. Prior to his arrival, HC Philip Montgomery was OC at Baylor for 7 years under Art Briles and we know what the Bears have done recently.  Senior QB Dane Evans (9) has started 31 games.  RB D’Angelo Brewer (4) is only 5’9” but ran for 164 last week.  Sr WR Keevan Lucas (2) returns after being out injured much of 2015, and has 165 career rec, for 17 TDs and 2,182 yards.   Those are three very good weapons.   Tulsa averaged 37 ppg on offense and ran the 3^rd most plays in 2015.  But the OL?  Not that strong.  Rated T-11^th out of 12 teams in the AAC (that’s code for last place).  Also, they allowed 41 sacks last year.

Let’s look closer at Tulsa’s defense.  The Golden Hurricane gave up 471 points two seasons ago.  That’s 39.25/game.   Last year, they allowed 463 in the regular season, but got invited to a bowl game where they surrendered 55 to Va. Tech.   So, 518/13 equals 39.84.   According to Phil Steele, their losses on the DL “are more significant” than in 2014.   And let me remind you, the AAC is not exactly the toughest competition. 

And add to the mix that we have Oklahoma next week.  Do we show them anything on film?  Do we save something for them that they won’t know is coming?

Bottom line:  I probably have better luck picking the spot in my bedroom where my cat will puke next than I have saying how this bunch of 18-20 years old will react this week.  However, I don’t think Urban cares what he shows the Sooners on film.  I think he still needs to find out who can do what job and what weapons he has at his disposal.  So, I expect everyone to play and I expect virtually every play in JT’s playbook to be run.  I also think Meyer will drill into these guys’ heads that just because they unloaded on BG that they better not expect each week to be a cakewalk.  He will get after these guys to try and duplicate the performance.   Tulsa may have better offensive weapons than the Falcons, but our defense did a pretty good job shutting down the fast-paced spread offense, and we have faced many of them the past 2 years.  We should be able to contain the Golden Hurricane.   Tulsa will score more than 10, but not much, mainly because of OL issues.  Meanwhile, their defense will be exhausted and gutted.  The over/under has shot up from 67.5 to 73.5.  That’s a huge number, but Vegas knows.  I’m going to be bold and say the Week 2 jinxes are in the past.

Schaef Says:   Ohio State 63, Tulsa 17. 

Season Preview & Bowling Green

Okay, I know the college football season does not start for a few hours (did you forget about Cal v. Hawaii from Sydney tonight?) but I could not wait because (Click)

After a somnambulant 2015 season that really only consisted of 4 games (VT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . then MSU, UM, and ND) I’m really looking forward to 2016.  Why?  Because it’s 2014 all over again with lots of uncertainty despite the pollsters placing us at No. 6.   Plus, we have this guy. 

Urban Meyer is 31-1 in regular season B1G play, but has the least experienced team . . . IN THE COUNTRY!  Just 6 returning startes – 3 on offense, 3 on defense.  But, if you were to have only six wouldn’t you want your QB, C, MLB among them?   Plus your Aussie Rules Punter returns which is probably worth 3 other guys.  Unlike last year when the Buckeyes were favorites by an average of 27 points from games 2-10, this year?  But it promises to be more exciting each week.

We should beat BG and Tulsa.  Then we go to Norman.  The Sooners are supposed to be awesome, but they also gave up this. And can do this. And did this.  Don’t discount “Big Game Bob.”  Rutgers and Indiana at home should be wins. Then it really gets fun:  at Wisconsin, at Penn State (both of them off bye weeks), Northwestern, and Nebraska at home.  I think we will be favored by slim margins in each and fortunately get Wisconsin when they should be beat up and Nebraska in the Shoe.  At Maryland should offer a break before going to East Lansing and having the Wolverines at home.   12-0 is possible.  11-1 and 10-2 are more likely.  9-3 would not be unexpected but would be a disappointment.  Urban says we have the talent, it’s just a matter of getting them ready.  If I were a betting man – and, what do you know? I am! – I would take Mike Bonfiglio’s life savings and place it on 11-1 (with the loss to Oklahoma). 

I’ll be in Raleigh next week we have friends visiting so my time will be limited.  Since predicting the first game correctly has roughly the same odds anyone on this chain of dating her, why not now?

Ohio State is 4-0 v. BG including a 35-7 win in 2006.  But, we only outgained the Falcons by 48 yards and it was close after 3 quarters, then this. BG is 8-17 v. B1G foes including 3-1 over the last 2 years (wins at Maryland and Purdue last year, beat Indiana and a loss at Wisky in 2014).  But they lost their Coach Dino Babers to Syracuse, and graduated MAC Off POY QB Matt Johnson, their career rushing leader Travis Greene, and 3 of their top 4 WRs.   For a team that wants to utilize a wide open passing attack, they are going to suffer some hiccups early on.  But Sr. QB James Knapke (3) did start several games a few years back, and their WRs have transfers from Michigan (Da’Mario Jones) and Baylor (Robbie Rhodes).  BG’s defense should be better than the 29 ppg they gave up last year, but their DL is new as are their safeties.

As we all know OSU had won 35 straight home openers until Va. Tech 2 years ago.  Last year, once we settled on JT at QB and put Co-OC Ed Warriner up in the booth with Tim Beck, we scored 42 on Michigan and 44 on Notre Dame.  Even though we have many new pieces to plug in, it’s not like most of these guys haven’t played.  And with JT at the helm, we were 5-1 S/U and 4-2 ATS.   The line is currently the Buckeyes by 27.5 with an over/under of 63.  A 12 Noon kickoff in early September sounds hot to me, so I don’t think weather or waiting will be an issue.  I think we will look good, but suffer from a few mistakes – a wrong route, mis-timed throw, missed block, a fumble – which will keep our offense in the 30s.  The D will be over aggressive and may be susceptible to some early mis-direction from Bowling Green.   But at the end of the day, it will look and feel like a good win.  I will take the points and the under, but Schaef says:

Ohio State 36, Bowling Green 17 is your final.

Bonus stat:  Ohio State is 303-1-1 when scoring 35+ points.