Rutgers

Before I get to this week's game, just a note about my experience in the Shoe last week:

I'm not saying it was hot, but Matthew and I saw two hobbits walk down the row then throw a ring onto the field. Thankfully, the game was over quickly and by the time we left with 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, the crowd of 106,000 was down to 40,000 or less. 

Yeah, me neither.  For some reason, in college football, there are teams that just don't match up well with others.  The converse is also true - that no matter the records or talent, Team B is always a thorn in Team A's side.  For Woody, it was Michigan State.  For Earle, it was Wisconsin.  For Cooper - well, there are lots of choices.  Even the Senator had issues with Purdue.  Rutgers is not Urban's Team B (cough, Indiana).  Ohio State has outscored Rutgers 163-24 in their 3 meetings (56-17, 49-7, and 58-0).  FYI - the Buckeyes did cover the spread in all 3.  No, we will not see anything close to this on Saturday night.

But we are on the road, you say.  Shouldn't we be worried, you say? (Sigh)

Since Urban's arrival in 2012, in true road games, Ohio State is 23-1.  Let that sink in for a moment.  I'll wait.  You are 3x more likely to see Ohio State lose at home or at a neutral site than they are in the opponent's home field.   Not only that, but the Buckeyes are 15-9 ATS in those 24 road games.   And four of those Ls belong to Penn State and the above-insinuated Indiana Hoosiers.  Without them Ohio State is 15-5 ATS in true road games.  Word.

Last week I wrote: "Urban's Buckeye teams have been favored by 30+ 13 times since he arrived and are a not so impressive 4-9 ATS." Well, you can now make that 4-10.  However, if we get that number under 30, then Ohio State is a bit more impressive at 9-6 ATS (And if you want to take the Hoosiers out of the equation, it goes to 9-4 ATS).  Vegas has put the Buckeyes as 28.5 point favorites with an over/under of 53.  See where I might be going with this?

I am sensing some confusion on your part.  You are wondering why Vegas isn't putting up a bigger number.  The explanation is Rutgers defense is improved.  In fact, statistically, Rutgers' D looks better than our D in many categories.  34th best passing defense, 38th best rushing defense, and 24th in total defense are remarkable rankings for a team that lost to Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State by a combined score of 0-175 last year.  

But pulling back the curtain, we see Rutgers has achieved those stats v. Eastern Michigan, Morgan State, and a "troubled" Nebraska. True, Rutgers played top 10 Washington tough, but it was the first game and the Huskies had to fly clear across the country.  I, too, am perplexed how Rutgers' defense can be so good when they rank 118th in Sacks and 118th in Tackles for Loss.  They are getting no D-line penetration even against questionable offensive line talent. So color me doubtful on the improved Scarlet Knights defense. 

On offense, new QB Kyle Bolin has less than impressive throwing statistics:  57% completion rate and only 160 yards per game.  Their leading rusher is averaging 65 yards per game.  The Knights will need good field position to put up much against our defense.

So, I think J.T. Barrett will have loads of time to decide what to do with the ball.  If Rutgers drops 8 men into coverage and we cannot pick an open man, I think we will see a healthy dose of JT pulling the ball down and running.  I think our OL has its way with Rutgers DL and I expect lots from JK Dobbins.  I see lots of points on our side.  And unless we turn the ball over, I don't see Rutgers mounting any drives or breaking long plays like UNLV managed to do.  Weather is supposed to be clear and cool in the 50s for the evening kickoff.  I like the Buckeyes to be in the 50s as well, so I'm giving the points and taking the over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 52, Rutgers 10.   (On the season, 3-1 S/U, 4-0 ATS).

UNLV

This will be mercifully short because I cannot get the meme generator to work, nor can I find any video of a 1987 SNL skit about studying at UNLV.  And so, I present a series of random facts:

1.  This is the first meeting between UNLV and Ohio State.  UNLV is coached by OSU backup QB Tate Martell's old high school coach, Tony Sanchez.  Sanchez was at Bishop Gorman High for Tate's Freshman and Sophomore years.

2.  The Rebels will be playing at 9:00 a.m. local time for them.  In the past decade they have only played a Noon ET kickoff once and that was in 2015 when they lost 7-28 to TTUN in Harbaugh's first year (The Wolverines were a 35 point favorite in that one).

3.  UNLV has the No. 4 Rushing Offense in the nation at 350.5 ypg.  Unlike Army, they do not run the triple option. They have a scrambling Redshirt FR QB named (1) Armani Rogers (who is also 6'5" 225), and a versatile RB (3) Lexington Thomas (5'9" 170).  They do not throw much as Rogers has attempted only 35 passes in 2 games.  When he throws it, it will most likely go to Sr. WR (83) Devante Boyd, who has 6 catches for 208 yards and 2 TDs.

4.  UNLV has no defense.  They are No. 114 in stopping the run, No. 90 in total defense, and No. 91 in scoring defense.  The DL does not pressure the oppositions QB, and they allow 43% conversions on 3rd down.  I should mention that so far UNLV lost to FCS Howard and defeated Idaho.  So you see the level of competition.

5.  UNLV does play ranked teams every year, so they won't be that fazed about coming to the Shoe.  They are, however,1-19 in their last 20 matchups with top 25 teams with those losses coming by an average of 25.5 ppg.

6.  Ohio State is favored by 40.5 with the over/under at 63.5.  Urban's Buckeye teams have been favored by 30+ 13 times since he arrived and are a not so impressive 4-9 ATS.  Twice Ohio State was favored by 40:  2013 v. Florida A&M (our 76-0 victory covered the 49.5 spread) and 2015 v. Hawai'i (we failed to cover the 41 point spread despite winning 38-0).

7.  Matthew and I will be at the game Saturday.  Matthew is 5-0 S/U & 4-1 ATS attending games while I'm 34-6 S/U (I haven't calculated my ATS impact). 

Prediction:  UNLV is not very good, but they have some talent.  Their coach is turning them around.  We played one dimensional Army last week and it's time to get back to someone more conventional.  Our offense is improving but still not firing on all cylinders.  Our defense still has work to do.  I think we run the ball more this week which will keep the clock moving and shorten the game, but we won't score as much as Vegas thinks we will.  UNLV will get a couple of scores and keep it comfortably within the spread.  So, take the 40.5 and bet the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 45, UNLV 13   (2-1 S/U; 3-0 ATS so far this season).

United States Military Academy (Army)

 

Man, my Twitter feed has one article about how JT is not the problem and the next has an article about how it's time for JT to go.  Can't we all just get along?  This debate just goes round and round.  I'm done with it.  I guess the immortal words of that great philosopher Sabrina Carpenter hold true: "That's just the way of the world. It never ends until it ends then it starts again." (or something like that).

Last week I had a bad feeling.  Not so this week. The last time Ohio State lost 2 consecutive home games?  1990.  We lost to USC 26-35 and the following week to Illinois 20-31.  But both the Trojans and Illini were ranked.  The last time Ohio State lost consecutive home games where one team was unranked?  Anyone?  My freshman year of 1982 when we lost to John Elway & Stanford 20-23, then Florida State 17-34, and then to Wisconsin 0-6.  Yikes.

This is not the Army you use to know.  Head Coach Jeff Monken has turned the program around, going 8-5 last season.  They are 2-0 this year and riding a 5 game win streak.  How did he do it? Training.  What kind of training?

What is the saying about the irresistible force meeting the immovable object?  Well, something's got to give in this one because Army is dead last (130th) in Passing Offense, with a mind-blowing 8.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Ohio State is dead last (130th) in Passing Defense, giving up 403 yards per game.  Somebody's ranking is going to change and I'm guessing it's the Buckeyes.

Army runs the triple option so effectively they are 2nd in the nation in Rushing Offense.  Of course, when you throw only 5 times per game you should be good running the ball.  Ohio State is 13th in Rushing Defense, in part because the pass defense is so poor.  But I believe our rushing defense will be up to the challenge this weekend and shut down the Cadets.

Vegas has the Buckeyes a 30 point favorite with an over/under of 53.  In 2014, after our loss to VT, we came back the next week and destroyed Kent State 66-0 easily covering the 31.5 spread.  In 2015, after our loss to Michigan State, we came back the next week and destroyed Michigan 42-13, easily covering the pick 'em spread.  Sensing any trends here?  

I think Ohio State is pissed off.  I think the Coaching staff is pissed off.  I think the fans are pissed off.   And I think all 3 will be even more pissed off that they have to wait for a funky 4:30 p.m. kickoff.  Army will be jacked up to take us on in the Shoe, but they haven't played many highly ranked teams on the road, and for good reason.  The last two times the Cadets have played a ranked team away they are 0-2 S/U and 0-2 ATS.  And one of those losses was to Rutgers.  (Go ahead, you can read that sentence again). 

JT will leave in the 3rd with good stats and Ohio State comfortably ahead, and Haskins will likely look pretty good in a blowout win.  Obviously, nothing that transpires Saturday (short of an injury) will end the debate. So gird your loins and prepare for another week of speculation, opinion, and conjecture. In the meantime, try and enjoy this week's game.  I'd give the points and leave the O/U alone.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 49, Army 3.

OU - Post Mortem

Some random thoughts as I watched the first 3 quarters again:

1.  I get the JT haters.  He misses open receivers often.  The deep ball in the 2nd quarter to McLaurin was a bit behind.  The ball Mack caught in the 3rd was too high (Mack just made an amazing play).  And he had KJ Hill wide open in the back of the end zone and overthrew him.  It's not good because,

2.  Our receivers still don't get open.  Many times there are 1-2 defenders bracketing our guys so JT doesn't have much of a choice.  He could try and force some throws into tight windows but he's not Baker Mayfield.  If JT's accuracy is a problem, then you don't want him trying to fit the ball into the size of a microwave.  But my biggest problem is with, 

3.  The offensive coaches.  When we ran the tailback (either Dobbins or Weber) between the tackles we had success.  Why go away from that when they are not stopping it?  Because Kevin Wilson told Kirk Herbstreit that "we need JT to run because it opens up so much more."   Well, when we get inside the 15 the defense knows JT is going to keep it and they key on him.   After Mack's catch (10-10), instead of Dobbins or Weber, it's JT run x 2 for nothing and then a missed throw. And once OU took a 17-13 lead (clearly not insurmountable), Dobbins and Weber each had one carry after that.  2 runs out of the last 26 plays.  So if they know we cannot throw and JT will keep it, how hard is it to stop us?

4.  Speaking of coaches, how many times do they need reminded that LT Isaiah Prince needs help in pass protection? I get that he worked hard in the off season but it's clearly not good enough.  We need a TE right with him to help out.  We don't do that and I don't know why.   

5.  Our DBs get a lot of the blame, but our LBs are lousy in pass coverage.  They were biting on run fakes all night allowing TEs and RBs to get behind them.  Which leads me to another gripe,

6.  Our defensive coaching adjustments for the 2nd half.   They are usually very good.  Saturday, they were non-existent.

All that being said, we only fell to No. 8.   If OU keeps winning, and they should, the loss will look better and better.  We are already 1-0 in conference.  We get Army, UNLV, and Rutgers next.  Should be 3 fairly lopsided wins.  Maryland and at Nebraska will be tougher but hopefully we will have some things ironed out and prevail.  Then PSU in the Shoe.

We should not change JT out for Haskins.  First of all, we could put Phil Mariola at QB v. Army and UNLV and he would look great.  But if he'd played v. the Sooners, the result would have been no different.  He would barely get through his first read before Prince would have blown a block.  Second, JT is not that bad.  He's regressed but he's still very, very good.  Third, if the coaches would (a) run the tailback and (b) help Prince block, then JT will look better and the criticism will lessen.  JT is not Todd Boeckmann or Joe Bauserman.  He is not Stanley Jackson.  And remember just 2 years ago we were begging Meyer to bench Cardale so that JT could play full-time. 

Ok, enough.  Looking forward from here on out.   FYI - Matthew and I will be at the UNLV game in 2 weeks.  Hope it's a nice day.

Oh, and thoughts to Don Powell (Orlando) and Jim Altiere (Jacksonville) in our group.   Hope Irma was kind to you.

Please keep me in your thoughts as Raleigh is going to experience clouds and winds up to 15 mph.   I'm not evacuating.  I'm going to stay here and protect my mulch and hope leaves don't blow in my yard.  I went out and got extra bottled water so I'm good.

Oklahoma

Whew!  1-0 overall and 1-0 in the conference.  Nice to have that one out of the way and then get 9 days to prepare for the Sooners.  So what if they are a top 5 team?  No worries because:

 

Last year, we were much younger and we went into Norman and put a whopping on them.  Noah Brown made some catches.  It was fun.

So this year, we are more experienced and we are at home.  So why do I feel this way?

First of all, it is week 2 of the Buckeye season.  I have written before about week 2:

As you know, Ohio State has a love-hate relationship with Week 2.  In the Urban Meyer era, when Ohio State has covered in Week One, the Buckeyes are 0-3 ATS in Week 2.  This is not a situation solely of Meyer’s making.  Six times in nine years, the Senator and Fickell failed to cover in Week 2 after covering in Week 1.

The Buckeyes actually covered against Tulsa so Urban is now 1-3 ATS in Week 2 when covering in Week 1.  And we covered in Week 1 v. Indiana. But you may recall that we did not come out very sharp v. Tulsa.  It was 6-3 late in the 2nd quarter   Against Tulsa. And let's not forget what happened the last time we opened on the road with a win and returned for a Week 2 night game in the Shoe.  Or maybe, yeah, let's just forget that.

This is Oklahoma and Baker Mayfield.  They have 9 starters back on offense.  All five of their OL return.  I don't really care that they looked great last weekend v. UTEP.  The Miners are predicted to finish 2nd to last in Conference USA, above only UAB - who hasn't played football in 2 years.

No, I care that Oklahoma has won 11 consecutive road games.  That the Sooners are 14-2 in "revenge" games (having lost to opponent the previous year).  That in the past 4 times the odds makers have made Oklahoma Even to +8, they are 3-1 ATS and 3-1 S/U.  Heck, GameDay will be there and the Sooners are 10-2 in true road games when GameDay is on site.

Meanwhile, Urban Meyer is 7-3 S/U v. Top 10 opponents but only 5-5 ATS.  He's 2-1 S/U in the Shoe but 1-2 ATS.

But all is not lost.

Oklahoma still has the same defense they had last year, but with less people.  They were giving up 36 points per game and 476 yards per game for the first 7 games of 2016.  They tightened up a bit in the last half of 2016 to finish at 29 ppg and 432.  But compare that to the young Buckeyes from last year who allowed 15.5 and 297.  True, we were torched in the air by Indiana, but not on the ground.  Anyway, this is about the Sooner D.  They did allow UTEP 73 rushing yards at 3.5 yards per attempt.  I'm thinking our ground game will be able to improve on those stats.  While they did return half of their starters, they lost a DB last week for the season.

And let's not forget that our new OC Kevin Wilson was at Oklahoma for 9 seasons in the early 2000s when he turned the Sooner offense into a beast.  He likely knows how to attack the Sooner defense as it has not improved at all since he left them for Indiana.

Urban is 15-4 v. Top 25 teams.  Oklahoma is 15-4 in road openers.  Something has to give.

Vegas has us as a 7.5 favorite with the O/U at 64.5.  My key stat:  since 2012, in the regular season, when Ohio State is Even to -8, we are 9-0 S/U and 8-1 ATS.  We are 4-0 S/U and 3-1 ATS at home.  Meyer wins the close games he's supposed to win.*    (*Mostly - post season, not so much). 

It's going to be a beautiful night in Cbus Saturday so weather should not be a factor.  The Oklahoma offense will be a factor.  Baker Mayfield is more talented than Indiana's QB and is much more mobile.  He's going to give us fits.  The Sooner OL is strong and may be able to hold our DL at bay on the pass rush.  If we play man, Mayfield could pick us apart.  We need to mix in zone coverage and create some confusion because he will throw a pick or two.  Make no mistake, Oklahoma will score on us.  The question is will we be able to answer?  J.T. will have to do better on deep balls and if he does, it will open up our running game.  With Weber and Dobbins, we should be able to put up 300 yards rushing, keep Mayfield off the field, and shorten the game.  But it's not going to be fun.  I'm talking at Wisconsin and v. Michigan types of not fun.  Keep your loved ones away and your firearms even further away.  Then take a deep sigh when this is "Big 12" shootout is over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 38, Oklahoma 35.   Take the points and the over.

Indiana

With all due respect to the late Heath Ledger and R Dean Taylor, we start 2017.  It's. About. Time.

I think this could arguably be the lowest point in all of Ohio State football.  But hey, it was only 30 years ago, it's not like any of us remember that, do we?  We lost the following year in Columbus too.  Even though the Buckeyes have now won 22 consecutive meetings in the series since 1988, the games in Bloomington can get tense - even with Urban as head coach.

2015 - Ohio State was No. 1 but trailed most of the game.  We had to have a 4th down pass go incomplete in our end zone at the end to escape 34-27.

2012 - Ohio State was favored by 18 but had to withstand a furious 4th quarter rally by the Hoosiers to win 52-49.

Add to that the fact that Indiana returns 9 starters on defense which is arguably stronger than Michigan's defense this year.  But we now have Indiana's former coach on our side and in our booth.  He should know how to best exploit that defensive talent - assuming his play calling and our execution are operating satisfactorily.  For how do we know?   Not only are we dealing with 18-21 year olds, there is no pre-season to judge what we will do or how we will do it?

But if you pay attention to Ohio State football, especially under Urban Meyer, you know that he has the Buckeyes primed and ready for the first game.  5-0 S/U and 4-1 ATS, including road/neutral wins v. Navy and Virginia Tech.  Meyer had won his first 20 true road games until PSU last October.  His new streak is at 2 and the Hoosiers won't threaten that.

No, what we are concerned about is the spread.  Vegas has us as a 21 point favorite with the O/U at 57.5.  Despite their good D and rumors of our D being very, very good, I'm laying the points and taking the over.  It will be a perfect night in Bloomington:  75 degrees, no rain, light winds.  Our offense is going to be explosive.   And despite Kevin Wilson on our side instead of theirs, Indiana will get its points.  They have a Senior QB and good receivers, so our "new" DBs will get tested.  Most of the time our DL should help them out but there will be some big plays from the Hoosiers.

I think we will be fine.  I think we will look pretty good when all is said and done.  And I think the hype for Oklahoma will start at about 12:30 a.m. Friday morning.  

Schaef says:  Ohio State 49, Indiana 21.