Rutgers

Before I get to this week's game, just a note about my experience in the Shoe last week:

I'm not saying it was hot, but Matthew and I saw two hobbits walk down the row then throw a ring onto the field. Thankfully, the game was over quickly and by the time we left with 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, the crowd of 106,000 was down to 40,000 or less. 

Yeah, me neither.  For some reason, in college football, there are teams that just don't match up well with others.  The converse is also true - that no matter the records or talent, Team B is always a thorn in Team A's side.  For Woody, it was Michigan State.  For Earle, it was Wisconsin.  For Cooper - well, there are lots of choices.  Even the Senator had issues with Purdue.  Rutgers is not Urban's Team B (cough, Indiana).  Ohio State has outscored Rutgers 163-24 in their 3 meetings (56-17, 49-7, and 58-0).  FYI - the Buckeyes did cover the spread in all 3.  No, we will not see anything close to this on Saturday night.

But we are on the road, you say.  Shouldn't we be worried, you say? (Sigh)

Since Urban's arrival in 2012, in true road games, Ohio State is 23-1.  Let that sink in for a moment.  I'll wait.  You are 3x more likely to see Ohio State lose at home or at a neutral site than they are in the opponent's home field.   Not only that, but the Buckeyes are 15-9 ATS in those 24 road games.   And four of those Ls belong to Penn State and the above-insinuated Indiana Hoosiers.  Without them Ohio State is 15-5 ATS in true road games.  Word.

Last week I wrote: "Urban's Buckeye teams have been favored by 30+ 13 times since he arrived and are a not so impressive 4-9 ATS." Well, you can now make that 4-10.  However, if we get that number under 30, then Ohio State is a bit more impressive at 9-6 ATS (And if you want to take the Hoosiers out of the equation, it goes to 9-4 ATS).  Vegas has put the Buckeyes as 28.5 point favorites with an over/under of 53.  See where I might be going with this?

I am sensing some confusion on your part.  You are wondering why Vegas isn't putting up a bigger number.  The explanation is Rutgers defense is improved.  In fact, statistically, Rutgers' D looks better than our D in many categories.  34th best passing defense, 38th best rushing defense, and 24th in total defense are remarkable rankings for a team that lost to Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State by a combined score of 0-175 last year.  

But pulling back the curtain, we see Rutgers has achieved those stats v. Eastern Michigan, Morgan State, and a "troubled" Nebraska. True, Rutgers played top 10 Washington tough, but it was the first game and the Huskies had to fly clear across the country.  I, too, am perplexed how Rutgers' defense can be so good when they rank 118th in Sacks and 118th in Tackles for Loss.  They are getting no D-line penetration even against questionable offensive line talent. So color me doubtful on the improved Scarlet Knights defense. 

On offense, new QB Kyle Bolin has less than impressive throwing statistics:  57% completion rate and only 160 yards per game.  Their leading rusher is averaging 65 yards per game.  The Knights will need good field position to put up much against our defense.

So, I think J.T. Barrett will have loads of time to decide what to do with the ball.  If Rutgers drops 8 men into coverage and we cannot pick an open man, I think we will see a healthy dose of JT pulling the ball down and running.  I think our OL has its way with Rutgers DL and I expect lots from JK Dobbins.  I see lots of points on our side.  And unless we turn the ball over, I don't see Rutgers mounting any drives or breaking long plays like UNLV managed to do.  Weather is supposed to be clear and cool in the 50s for the evening kickoff.  I like the Buckeyes to be in the 50s as well, so I'm giving the points and taking the over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 52, Rutgers 10.   (On the season, 3-1 S/U, 4-0 ATS).