Oklahoma

Whew!  1-0 overall and 1-0 in the conference.  Nice to have that one out of the way and then get 9 days to prepare for the Sooners.  So what if they are a top 5 team?  No worries because:

 

Last year, we were much younger and we went into Norman and put a whopping on them.  Noah Brown made some catches.  It was fun.

So this year, we are more experienced and we are at home.  So why do I feel this way?

First of all, it is week 2 of the Buckeye season.  I have written before about week 2:

As you know, Ohio State has a love-hate relationship with Week 2.  In the Urban Meyer era, when Ohio State has covered in Week One, the Buckeyes are 0-3 ATS in Week 2.  This is not a situation solely of Meyer’s making.  Six times in nine years, the Senator and Fickell failed to cover in Week 2 after covering in Week 1.

The Buckeyes actually covered against Tulsa so Urban is now 1-3 ATS in Week 2 when covering in Week 1.  And we covered in Week 1 v. Indiana. But you may recall that we did not come out very sharp v. Tulsa.  It was 6-3 late in the 2nd quarter   Against Tulsa. And let's not forget what happened the last time we opened on the road with a win and returned for a Week 2 night game in the Shoe.  Or maybe, yeah, let's just forget that.

This is Oklahoma and Baker Mayfield.  They have 9 starters back on offense.  All five of their OL return.  I don't really care that they looked great last weekend v. UTEP.  The Miners are predicted to finish 2nd to last in Conference USA, above only UAB - who hasn't played football in 2 years.

No, I care that Oklahoma has won 11 consecutive road games.  That the Sooners are 14-2 in "revenge" games (having lost to opponent the previous year).  That in the past 4 times the odds makers have made Oklahoma Even to +8, they are 3-1 ATS and 3-1 S/U.  Heck, GameDay will be there and the Sooners are 10-2 in true road games when GameDay is on site.

Meanwhile, Urban Meyer is 7-3 S/U v. Top 10 opponents but only 5-5 ATS.  He's 2-1 S/U in the Shoe but 1-2 ATS.

But all is not lost.

Oklahoma still has the same defense they had last year, but with less people.  They were giving up 36 points per game and 476 yards per game for the first 7 games of 2016.  They tightened up a bit in the last half of 2016 to finish at 29 ppg and 432.  But compare that to the young Buckeyes from last year who allowed 15.5 and 297.  True, we were torched in the air by Indiana, but not on the ground.  Anyway, this is about the Sooner D.  They did allow UTEP 73 rushing yards at 3.5 yards per attempt.  I'm thinking our ground game will be able to improve on those stats.  While they did return half of their starters, they lost a DB last week for the season.

And let's not forget that our new OC Kevin Wilson was at Oklahoma for 9 seasons in the early 2000s when he turned the Sooner offense into a beast.  He likely knows how to attack the Sooner defense as it has not improved at all since he left them for Indiana.

Urban is 15-4 v. Top 25 teams.  Oklahoma is 15-4 in road openers.  Something has to give.

Vegas has us as a 7.5 favorite with the O/U at 64.5.  My key stat:  since 2012, in the regular season, when Ohio State is Even to -8, we are 9-0 S/U and 8-1 ATS.  We are 4-0 S/U and 3-1 ATS at home.  Meyer wins the close games he's supposed to win.*    (*Mostly - post season, not so much). 

It's going to be a beautiful night in Cbus Saturday so weather should not be a factor.  The Oklahoma offense will be a factor.  Baker Mayfield is more talented than Indiana's QB and is much more mobile.  He's going to give us fits.  The Sooner OL is strong and may be able to hold our DL at bay on the pass rush.  If we play man, Mayfield could pick us apart.  We need to mix in zone coverage and create some confusion because he will throw a pick or two.  Make no mistake, Oklahoma will score on us.  The question is will we be able to answer?  J.T. will have to do better on deep balls and if he does, it will open up our running game.  With Weber and Dobbins, we should be able to put up 300 yards rushing, keep Mayfield off the field, and shorten the game.  But it's not going to be fun.  I'm talking at Wisconsin and v. Michigan types of not fun.  Keep your loved ones away and your firearms even further away.  Then take a deep sigh when this is "Big 12" shootout is over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 38, Oklahoma 35.   Take the points and the over.