So, is this the year of a prohibitive favorite, like 2016 and Nyquist or 2014 and California Chrome? No. Ok, at least can I count on Todd Pletcher bringing his usual 4 or 5 horses to the Derby? Again, no. Hmm, well is Bob Baffert bringing his usual 1-2 colts who will have a legitimate shot to win the Derby and maybe the Triple Crown? Actually (pause), he's bringing three.
The five-time Derby winner and two-time Triple Crown winner (2018, Justify; 2015, American Pharoah) Baffert is bringing three horses to Louisville for the first time since 2006. Each of those three, Roadster, Game Winner, and Improbablecould win and each has the ability to go on to even greater things. Baffert usually prefers quality over quantity. Over the course of 23 Derbys, Baffert has saddled 29 starters. Five have won, 3 have placed second, and 3 have placed third. That's a 38% chance of one of his hitting the board. Game Winner was unbeaten at age 2, won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last fall, and was named Eclipse's 2-year-old male horse of the year (just like American Pharoah). Improbablewas also unbeaten at age 2 which included a win at Churchill Downs last November. Roadstergot a late start but has won both of his races as a 3-year-old, including a win in the Santa Anita Derby by 1/2 a length over Game Winner. It would be very easy, and hard not to "Justify," (sorry, bad TC pun) picking one of these three as your winner and ignoring the rest of the field.
To do so, however, would be to ignore some history that goes against Baffert and his entries. Specifically, only two times in the previous 23 years has Baffert brought more than 2 horses to the Derby. He did not do well either time. In 1999, his highest finisher was Prime Timber (4th), and in 2006, his best was Point Determined finishing 9th.
If you like data and trends (as I do) then there is more. The last eight consecutive Derby winners were coming off a win in their previous race. As we know, Game Winner lost to Roadster at Santa Anita. Improbable ran in the Arkansas Derby a week later and finished second. Moreover, the last six Derby winners were unbeaten as 3-year-olds. Roadster satisfies that criteria too, but both Game Winner and Improbable had additional second place finishes in the Rebel Stakes (Note - without going too far down a rabbit hole, because one major track temporarily closed there were a large number of Derby hopefuls that wanted to run in the Rebel and so Oaklawn Park in Arkansas had 2 Rebel Stakes races this year). Have I convinced you to simply go with Roadster then?
Cue the other shoe to drop - Mike Smith, who rode Justify to the Triple Crown last year, is Roadster's regular jockey. However, faced with competing rides, Smith chose to abandon Roadster and ride Omaha Beach instead. How much does changing jockeys affect a horse? Only 2 of the previous 16 Derby winners had a jockey aboard for his first ever ride on that colt. Additionally, the average finish for the last 23 horses that came into the Derby off a win, but had to change jockeys, is a not so impressive 11th. Florent Geroux gets the mount on Roadster for the Derby, but his experience is limited to a 3rd, an 11th, and a 17th place finish, and he has no Triple Crown race wins.
If not one of the Baffert horses, then who? A place to start is Arkansas Derby winnerOmaha Beach. He has Mike Smith aboard, he's coming off a win, he is unbeaten at age 3, and he's beaten both Game Winner and Improbable head-to-head. And he is the early betting favorite, which ties into another recent trend - the favorite has won the last 6 races. He definitely satisfies all the requirements for a winner. The only question mark is his trainer Richard Mandella. Mandella is a Hall of Famer but has brought only 6 horses to the Derby in the past 34 years. Remarkably, he has not had an entry since 2004. None of his horses have ever placed in the top three with his best finish being a 5th in 1994. With such a long time away, can Mandella get Omaha Beach to the winner's circle?
The Florida Derby has proven to be a great pipeline for future Kentucky Derby winners (2017, Always Dreaming; 2016, Nyquist; 2013, Orb; 2008, Big Brown; and 2006, Barbaro, to name a few). This year's winner, Maximum Security, like Omaha Beach, checks all the trendy boxes. Maximum Security is not only unbeaten at age 3, he's unbeaten in 4 lifetime starts. His jockey, Luis Saez, rode him to the win at Gulfstream Park and will stay aboard for the Derby. If you like to pick nits though, you could argue that the competition in his four starts was not that impressive. Only one other horse from his prior races has qualified for Kentucky. Jockey Saez, like Roadster's Florent Geroux, also has less than inspiring Derby results.
Wood Memorial winner Tacitusis another intriguing possibility. He's won his last three starts, posted impressive speed figures, and beaten other horses who have qualified. Jockey Jose Ortiz has been along the entire way and won the 2017 Belmont with Tapwrit. But the Wood Memorial has not had a Derby winner since Funny Cide in 2003. Is there a Wood jinx at play?
Louisiana Derby winner By My Standards, and Blue Grass Stakes winner Vekomado not fit the recent trends. While both are coming off wins and have their same jockey, neither are unbeaten at 3. Also, the Louisiana Derby winner has never won at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, and the Blue Grass Stakes has only sent one winner (2007 Street Sense) in the past 20 years.
Hold on! Are we overlooking Todd Pletcher? The trainer with 52 starts in 19 Derbys (but only 2 wins) brings a couple of horses this year. Cutting Humor is coming off a win in the Sunland Derby against questionable competition. The outing prior to that, Cutting Humor finished 7th in the Southwest Stakes. Also, he's got a new jockey for this race, so do not count on him. The other entry, Spinoff, finished second to By My Standards in Louisiana, barely had enough points to squeak into the field, and also has a new jockey. Not a winning choice.
What to do? What to do? A couple of times recently, I outsmarted myself and picked against a Bob Baffert trained horse. I did so last year when I picked 3rd place Audible over Justify, and again in 2015 (when American Pharoah won). If Mike Smith had stayed with Roadster, it would be a much easier choice.
But I'm a guy who likes data and likes to identify trends supported by that data. That means my pick should be Omaha Beach, who checks all the boxes. However, he likes to run at the front, and if things go as expected, Omaha Beach, Maximum Security and Vekoma will all be vying for the lead. Each of them would prefer a slower pace (say :47.20 to :48.00 for the first 1/2 mile), so that they have plenty in reserve for the stretch. But with three of them pushing each other and the other 17 crowding for position, I think the pace is faster. Not so fast that it sets up for the closers in the back, but rather for those stalking just off the lead in positions 4th through 10th. As they turn for home, Omaha Beach will take the lead as Vekoma and Maximum Security begin to fade. Just when you think Mike Smith will win back-to-back Derbys, Game Winneris going to come down the middle of the track and catch Omaha Beach at the wire. Omaha Beach to finish second, and a late charge by Code of Honorto finish third. Yes, I'm going to ignore all my data and ignore all my recent trends. But considering Baffert's ability to win this race, I'm reminded of the immortal words of Roger Daltrey and Pete Townsend. And know this, Mr. Baffert, I "won't be fooled again."
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