Big Ten night games and Coach Tressel do not mix. After a win at home v. Northwestern, Tressel is 0-3 since. That's a concern. However, all 3 of those losses followed a bye week, so maybe it's the week off that is the problem.
Iowa, historically, has not been the problem. The Buckeyes are 11-2-1 straight up and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games versus the Hawkeyes. Going back 23 years and including Hayden Fry's signature 20-14 win versus the No. 3 Buckeyes in 1983, Ohio State is 7-2-1 in Iowa City (and 8-2 at the Shoe). In the last 5 games at Iowa City (including 2004's crushing 33-7 loss) Ohio State still outscores Iowa by an average of 34-20.
When the 2 teams are ranked, it has been all good for Ohio State. Last year, we were No. 8, they were No. 21, Ohio State wins 31-6. In 2003, we were No. 8, they were No. 9, Ohio State wins 19-10. In 1997, we were No. 7, they were No. 11, Ohio State wins 23-7. In 1996, we were No. 2, they were No. 20, Ohio State wins 38-26.
Iowa won't roll over. They are 5-3 s/u and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home underdog. Also, the home teams is 7-2 ATS since 1995 in this series. The current line is 6.5 after opening at 7.
These teams are incredibly even as far as statistics go, with 3 exceptions. Ohio State is No. 16 in the nation in turnover margin at + 5, while Iowa is No. 79 at -2. In net punting, after the return, Ohio State nets 39 yards, while Iowa's average punt only goes 35 yards before the return. Most importantly, Ohio State's defense is No. 4 in 3rd down conversions, giving up first downs only 2 times out of 10. Iowa, meanwhile, is No. 100 allowing opponents to convert 50% of the time.
Those three stats play right into Tressel's style of play. Ohio State will be able to convert some 3rd downs, pin Iowa deep, and the Buckeye defense will force a punt. Iowa's punting is poor, so Troy Smith and the offense will have a short field to work with. Ohio State should jump on top, then sit back and pick off a few Drew Tate passes.
Iowa has not played anyone yet this year. They struggled at home versus Iowa State, who was then blown out by Texas. Iowa's games have also been low scoring as they have finished "under" in all 3 of their contests. The over/under here is 43.5.
MTB says:
Ohio State 7 14 7 0 - 28
Iowa 0 7 7 0 - 14
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Penn State
Ohio State has a clear advantage in the trenches. Penn State returns only one offensive lineman - LT Levi Brown (who Mel Kiper has in his Top 10). Everyone else is new. Their QB is also new, and a lot less mobile than last year's Michael Robinson. Pitcock and the rest should be able to get to him when he drops back. They need to because PSU returns their explosive wideouts. If Morelli has time to throw, we could get burned.
Their defense is just as depleted as ours as they lost 3 DL and all 4 DBs. They do return a great LB corps, but their success depends on the DL tying up the OL. Our OL experience and Tressel's ability to throw in a wrinkle (e.g., extra TE v. Michigan) will negate the LBs. Notre Dame torched this defense for over 100 on the ground and more than 300 in the air. We can do the same or better.
Penn State has beaten Akron and D-IAA Youngstown State. They got thrashed on national TV v. the Irish. Thus, they have padded their stats against the weaker teams, and as we saw last week, the Irish defense is not that great.
Initially, I thought the 17 point spread was too much. But then I looked again at the 6 games these two teams have played in the Shoe since 1993. Ohio State has outscored Penn State by a total of 169-45 (avg score 28-7). The Nittany Lions have been held to single digits 5 of 6 games. The Buckeyes have covered in all 6 of those, and the underdog in this game is 0-8 v. the spread in the last 8 contests.
This is not the same Penn State team as last year. Their offense is down, and their defense is down. Our defense is bending but not breaking, and our offense is scoring at about the same pace as the end of last year. Weather-wise, the forecast says the rain should hold off, for what that is worth.
MTB says:
Penn State 7 0 0 0 - 7
Ohio State 3 10 7 10 - 30
Their defense is just as depleted as ours as they lost 3 DL and all 4 DBs. They do return a great LB corps, but their success depends on the DL tying up the OL. Our OL experience and Tressel's ability to throw in a wrinkle (e.g., extra TE v. Michigan) will negate the LBs. Notre Dame torched this defense for over 100 on the ground and more than 300 in the air. We can do the same or better.
Penn State has beaten Akron and D-IAA Youngstown State. They got thrashed on national TV v. the Irish. Thus, they have padded their stats against the weaker teams, and as we saw last week, the Irish defense is not that great.
Initially, I thought the 17 point spread was too much. But then I looked again at the 6 games these two teams have played in the Shoe since 1993. Ohio State has outscored Penn State by a total of 169-45 (avg score 28-7). The Nittany Lions have been held to single digits 5 of 6 games. The Buckeyes have covered in all 6 of those, and the underdog in this game is 0-8 v. the spread in the last 8 contests.
This is not the same Penn State team as last year. Their offense is down, and their defense is down. Our defense is bending but not breaking, and our offense is scoring at about the same pace as the end of last year. Weather-wise, the forecast says the rain should hold off, for what that is worth.
MTB says:
Penn State 7 0 0 0 - 7
Ohio State 3 10 7 10 - 30
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Cincinnati
Here's More Than Buckeyes (MTB) weekly prediction:
No fear of a letdown for 2 reasons: (a) thanks to Florida State barely beating Troy, Air Force falling one point short of Tennessee, and Akron defeating NCState in Raleigh, there's plenty of material for Tressel to show the team that they cannot take any time off; and (b) Troy Smith. Did you listen to him after the game? The guy has gone from an "athlete" with a questionable character, to someone I hope my son role models. Accepts no credit, gives it to the coaches and offensive line. No revenge versus Texas - every win is a good win. This guy is having a dream season (only 2 games in) and has the leadership and the will power to compel the team to play well. I think he realizes that he has only a few more games left in Ohio Stadium and he's going to make the most of them.
Other reasons - our defense, while impressive, still needs a lot of work. I'm sure the coaches pointed out plenty of missed tackles in film and is embarrassed by our giving up nearly 200 yards per game rushing so far. Another is Cincinnati - they are not that good. They cannot keep up with our offense. If we get up by 10 or 14, they will not come back. This is not the Cincinnati of 2002 where we barely got by. Nor is this Marshall of 2004 in which we needed a 54 yard FG from Nugent. They are worse, and we are better.
Tressel has never lost to an unranked non-conference team. Ohio State is 6-0 under Tressel coming home after a road win. Unless we turn the ball over 5 times, this should not be a problem. We may not cover the 29 1/2 point spread, but we will win comfortably.
MTB says:
Cincinnati 3 7 0 6 - 16
Ohio State 7 17 14 3 - 41
Believe it or not - here were my predictions for No. Illinois and Texas (which I was unable to publish prior to vacation):
OSU 10-0 v. the MAC in the 14 years. Tressel is 5-0. But the Buckeyes are only 3-7 v. the spread (Tressel is 2-3). But he's never had an offense like this one.
Bucks haven't lost a home opener since 1978. In their last 14 home openers they are 11-3 v. the spread. No. Illinois is 0-12 straight up, but 8-4 ATS v. the Big 10 since 1992.
The Buckeye offense gets it going early forcing NIU to abandonned a controlled running game and effectively limiting the role of the Huskies great RB Wolfe. The Buckeye defense plays better than expected and OSU covers the 18 point spread.
Final - Ohio State 38, Northern Illinois 17.
Bonus Pick - As I will be in Arizona all next week, here's a take on the Texas game. Texas is supposed to have this awesome defense, but USC scored 38 on them, and we should have scored more than 22 but we had to settle with FGs. Our offense will be better than game 2 of last year and Texas will not have Vince Young to carry them back.
The Buckeyes rarely play a non-conference road game, and Tressel is 2-1 in them with the only loss being at UCLA in year one of his regime. Look to the bowl games for more evidence. Tressel is 4-1, winning 4 in a row. Despite being No. 1, the Buckeyes will probably be an underdog in Austin. That's okay, the Buckeyes were dogs in 3 of Tressel's 4 bowl wins.
Final - Ohio State 31, Texas 24
Go Bucks!
No fear of a letdown for 2 reasons: (a) thanks to Florida State barely beating Troy, Air Force falling one point short of Tennessee, and Akron defeating NCState in Raleigh, there's plenty of material for Tressel to show the team that they cannot take any time off; and (b) Troy Smith. Did you listen to him after the game? The guy has gone from an "athlete" with a questionable character, to someone I hope my son role models. Accepts no credit, gives it to the coaches and offensive line. No revenge versus Texas - every win is a good win. This guy is having a dream season (only 2 games in) and has the leadership and the will power to compel the team to play well. I think he realizes that he has only a few more games left in Ohio Stadium and he's going to make the most of them.
Other reasons - our defense, while impressive, still needs a lot of work. I'm sure the coaches pointed out plenty of missed tackles in film and is embarrassed by our giving up nearly 200 yards per game rushing so far. Another is Cincinnati - they are not that good. They cannot keep up with our offense. If we get up by 10 or 14, they will not come back. This is not the Cincinnati of 2002 where we barely got by. Nor is this Marshall of 2004 in which we needed a 54 yard FG from Nugent. They are worse, and we are better.
Tressel has never lost to an unranked non-conference team. Ohio State is 6-0 under Tressel coming home after a road win. Unless we turn the ball over 5 times, this should not be a problem. We may not cover the 29 1/2 point spread, but we will win comfortably.
MTB says:
Cincinnati 3 7 0 6 - 16
Ohio State 7 17 14 3 - 41
Believe it or not - here were my predictions for No. Illinois and Texas (which I was unable to publish prior to vacation):
OSU 10-0 v. the MAC in the 14 years. Tressel is 5-0. But the Buckeyes are only 3-7 v. the spread (Tressel is 2-3). But he's never had an offense like this one.
Bucks haven't lost a home opener since 1978. In their last 14 home openers they are 11-3 v. the spread. No. Illinois is 0-12 straight up, but 8-4 ATS v. the Big 10 since 1992.
The Buckeye offense gets it going early forcing NIU to abandonned a controlled running game and effectively limiting the role of the Huskies great RB Wolfe. The Buckeye defense plays better than expected and OSU covers the 18 point spread.
Final - Ohio State 38, Northern Illinois 17.
Bonus Pick - As I will be in Arizona all next week, here's a take on the Texas game. Texas is supposed to have this awesome defense, but USC scored 38 on them, and we should have scored more than 22 but we had to settle with FGs. Our offense will be better than game 2 of last year and Texas will not have Vince Young to carry them back.
The Buckeyes rarely play a non-conference road game, and Tressel is 2-1 in them with the only loss being at UCLA in year one of his regime. Look to the bowl games for more evidence. Tressel is 4-1, winning 4 in a row. Despite being No. 1, the Buckeyes will probably be an underdog in Austin. That's okay, the Buckeyes were dogs in 3 of Tressel's 4 bowl wins.
Final - Ohio State 31, Texas 24
Go Bucks!
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