Penn State

Ohio State has a clear advantage in the trenches. Penn State returns only one offensive lineman - LT Levi Brown (who Mel Kiper has in his Top 10). Everyone else is new. Their QB is also new, and a lot less mobile than last year's Michael Robinson. Pitcock and the rest should be able to get to him when he drops back. They need to because PSU returns their explosive wideouts. If Morelli has time to throw, we could get burned.

Their defense is just as depleted as ours as they lost 3 DL and all 4 DBs. They do return a great LB corps, but their success depends on the DL tying up the OL. Our OL experience and Tressel's ability to throw in a wrinkle (e.g., extra TE v. Michigan) will negate the LBs. Notre Dame torched this defense for over 100 on the ground and more than 300 in the air. We can do the same or better.

Penn State has beaten Akron and D-IAA Youngstown State. They got thrashed on national TV v. the Irish. Thus, they have padded their stats against the weaker teams, and as we saw last week, the Irish defense is not that great.

Initially, I thought the 17 point spread was too much. But then I looked again at the 6 games these two teams have played in the Shoe since 1993. Ohio State has outscored Penn State by a total of 169-45 (avg score 28-7). The Nittany Lions have been held to single digits 5 of 6 games. The Buckeyes have covered in all 6 of those, and the underdog in this game is 0-8 v. the spread in the last 8 contests.

This is not the same Penn State team as last year. Their offense is down, and their defense is down. Our defense is bending but not breaking, and our offense is scoring at about the same pace as the end of last year. Weather-wise, the forecast says the rain should hold off, for what that is worth.

MTB says:

Penn State 7 0 0 0 - 7
Ohio State 3 10 7 10 - 30