Cincinnati

Here's More Than Buckeyes (MTB) weekly prediction:

No fear of a letdown for 2 reasons: (a) thanks to Florida State barely beating Troy, Air Force falling one point short of Tennessee, and Akron defeating NCState in Raleigh, there's plenty of material for Tressel to show the team that they cannot take any time off; and (b) Troy Smith. Did you listen to him after the game? The guy has gone from an "athlete" with a questionable character, to someone I hope my son role models. Accepts no credit, gives it to the coaches and offensive line. No revenge versus Texas - every win is a good win. This guy is having a dream season (only 2 games in) and has the leadership and the will power to compel the team to play well. I think he realizes that he has only a few more games left in Ohio Stadium and he's going to make the most of them.

Other reasons - our defense, while impressive, still needs a lot of work. I'm sure the coaches pointed out plenty of missed tackles in film and is embarrassed by our giving up nearly 200 yards per game rushing so far. Another is Cincinnati - they are not that good. They cannot keep up with our offense. If we get up by 10 or 14, they will not come back. This is not the Cincinnati of 2002 where we barely got by. Nor is this Marshall of 2004 in which we needed a 54 yard FG from Nugent. They are worse, and we are better.

Tressel has never lost to an unranked non-conference team. Ohio State is 6-0 under Tressel coming home after a road win. Unless we turn the ball over 5 times, this should not be a problem. We may not cover the 29 1/2 point spread, but we will win comfortably.

MTB says:

Cincinnati 3 7 0 6 - 16
Ohio State 7 17 14 3 - 41

Believe it or not - here were my predictions for No. Illinois and Texas (which I was unable to publish prior to vacation):

OSU 10-0 v. the MAC in the 14 years. Tressel is 5-0. But the Buckeyes are only 3-7 v. the spread (Tressel is 2-3). But he's never had an offense like this one.

Bucks haven't lost a home opener since 1978. In their last 14 home openers they are 11-3 v. the spread. No. Illinois is 0-12 straight up, but 8-4 ATS v. the Big 10 since 1992.

The Buckeye offense gets it going early forcing NIU to abandonned a controlled running game and effectively limiting the role of the Huskies great RB Wolfe. The Buckeye defense plays better than expected and OSU covers the 18 point spread.

Final - Ohio State 38, Northern Illinois 17.

Bonus Pick - As I will be in Arizona all next week, here's a take on the Texas game. Texas is supposed to have this awesome defense, but USC scored 38 on them, and we should have scored more than 22 but we had to settle with FGs. Our offense will be better than game 2 of last year and Texas will not have Vince Young to carry them back.

The Buckeyes rarely play a non-conference road game, and Tressel is 2-1 in them with the only loss being at UCLA in year one of his regime. Look to the bowl games for more evidence. Tressel is 4-1, winning 4 in a row. Despite being No. 1, the Buckeyes will probably be an underdog in Austin. That's okay, the Buckeyes were dogs in 3 of Tressel's 4 bowl wins.

Final - Ohio State 31, Texas 24

Go Bucks!