Iowa thoughts and prediction

Big Ten night games and Coach Tressel do not mix. After a win at home v. Northwestern, Tressel is 0-3 since. That's a concern. However, all 3 of those losses followed a bye week, so maybe it's the week off that is the problem.

Iowa, historically, has not been the problem. The Buckeyes are 11-2-1 straight up and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games versus the Hawkeyes. Going back 23 years and including Hayden Fry's signature 20-14 win versus the No. 3 Buckeyes in 1983, Ohio State is 7-2-1 in Iowa City (and 8-2 at the Shoe). In the last 5 games at Iowa City (including 2004's crushing 33-7 loss) Ohio State still outscores Iowa by an average of 34-20.

When the 2 teams are ranked, it has been all good for Ohio State. Last year, we were No. 8, they were No. 21, Ohio State wins 31-6. In 2003, we were No. 8, they were No. 9, Ohio State wins 19-10. In 1997, we were No. 7, they were No. 11, Ohio State wins 23-7. In 1996, we were No. 2, they were No. 20, Ohio State wins 38-26.

Iowa won't roll over. They are 5-3 s/u and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home underdog. Also, the home teams is 7-2 ATS since 1995 in this series. The current line is 6.5 after opening at 7.

These teams are incredibly even as far as statistics go, with 3 exceptions. Ohio State is No. 16 in the nation in turnover margin at + 5, while Iowa is No. 79 at -2. In net punting, after the return, Ohio State nets 39 yards, while Iowa's average punt only goes 35 yards before the return. Most importantly, Ohio State's defense is No. 4 in 3rd down conversions, giving up first downs only 2 times out of 10. Iowa, meanwhile, is No. 100 allowing opponents to convert 50% of the time.

Those three stats play right into Tressel's style of play. Ohio State will be able to convert some 3rd downs, pin Iowa deep, and the Buckeye defense will force a punt. Iowa's punting is poor, so Troy Smith and the offense will have a short field to work with. Ohio State should jump on top, then sit back and pick off a few Drew Tate passes.

Iowa has not played anyone yet this year. They struggled at home versus Iowa State, who was then blown out by Texas. Iowa's games have also been low scoring as they have finished "under" in all 3 of their contests. The over/under here is 43.5.

MTB says:

Ohio State 7 14 7 0 - 28
Iowa 0 7 7 0 - 14