Is it just me, or will this post be nearly identical to last week's? In looking at the stats, Minnesota is nearly identical to the Hoosiers.
Let's start with their defense: 96th v. the run, 86th v. the pass, 97th overall, and 66th in scoring - giving up 23 points per game. That is after playing Div II North Dakota State last week, at home, and only winning 10-9. Minnesota has been a road dog twice this year and failed to show up. They lost 42-17 at Cal, and 48-12 at Wisconsin. They were a road favorite at Purdue but lost 27-21.
On offense, we all expect Minnesota to have a great running back (or two) and control the game by controlling the clock. Well, this is not that Minnesota team. Their offensive numbers are not atrocious: 38th in rushing, 64th in passing, 49th overall and 48th in scoring. What that means is they gain 10 less on the ground than OSU, 40 less through the air, 50 total, and 9 points fewer. They are 111th in TOP (27:30), and a miserable 97th in 3rd down conversions (33.3%).
The line is currently Ohio State by 27. I think Vegas has finally gotten wise to the fact that Tressel is not going to post 40 points per game, let alone 50. The over/under has been reduced to 50 (as opposed to past games of 55, 56). I always thought Minnesota gave us trouble, but Ohio State is 31-2 v. the Gophers since 1969. I guess it is because the games in the Metrodome are always close and Mason led his team to that 29-17 upset of 2000 at the Shoe. Aside from that one Cooper debacle, the Buckeyes have POUNDED the Gophers in Columbus: 34-3 (2002); 45-15 (1998); 45-0 (1996); 52-23 (1990); 42-9 (1987); 33-0 (1986); and 69-0 (1983) - I could go on but why?
I think the Buckeyes will break out of their typical pattern of starting slow and revving up in the 2nd and 3rd. The reason is that our offense is converting 50% of our 3rd down plays (10th in the nation), while Minnesota's defense allows opponents to convert 44.1% (99th). In short, they won't be able to get us off the field.
MTB says:
Minnesota 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 10 14 10 3 - 37
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Friday, October 20, 2006
Indiana
This is a few days late because I actually took a friend's advice and did some work - for my job, that is. I don't know if the extra time helped with my analysis of the Indiana team, though.
My chief question - how is this team 4-3? Their last 3 games, they've given up an average of 37.5 points per game, been outgained in each game, and given up 500 yards on defense 2 of the last 3? They also lost to Southern Illinois (I-AA) and UConn, while eeking out a win v. Ball State by 1.You look at the statistics and there is not a single redeeming fact to support this team. 87th in rushing offense, 45th in passing, 72nd in total, 48th in scoring. On defense, it gets worse: 102nd v. the run, 84th v. the pass, 97th overall, and 97th in scoring defense. They are 110th in offensive 3rd down conversions, and their defense is 71st, allowing opponents to convert 39% of the time. They are 91st in Time of Possession, 94th in sacks and 62nd in sacks allowed.
My conclusion? Indiana must have had some big plays against bad teams. Illinois is bad. Iowa is not supposed to be bad, but I read where the Hawkeyes were missing 7 or 8 players due to injury. So, the Hoosiers are an illusion. Ohio State lost to Indiana in the 'Shoe in Earle's last year, 1987. You would have to go back another 36 years years to find another loss to the Hoosiers in Columbus, and that was Woody's first year. We are not due to lose to these guys until 2023.
So, the question becomes will the Buckeyes cover? The spread is 30.5, which with today's new faster paced games, may be hard to achieve. But I just found a stat that says "all-time, Ohio State has held Indiana to 9.9 pts/game average." That is mighty impressive. I am not worried about the Buckeyes overlooking Indiana for 2 reasons: (1) For unknown reasons, several of the computers have us at No. 3 behind USC and scUM; and (2) I read a quote in the Plain Dealer a few weeks back from one of the seniors talking about how Troy Smith and the other seniors relish playing in the Shoe. These guys realize their careers at OSU are ending and they want to make every home game special.
I think that with Indiana's pourous run defense, we will see a steady diet of Pittman (if healthy), C. Wells and M. Wells. That will make the game go fast. But, because I am not convinced that Pittman is 100%, or that Mo Wells can get more than 1.3 yards per carry, and that Ginn and Gonzo will be telling Troy Smith to throw them the ball because they are open on every play, I think we hit 40 (finally!). With Indiana's historical average, even I can do the math:
MTB says:
Indiana 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 14 14 0 14 - 42
My chief question - how is this team 4-3? Their last 3 games, they've given up an average of 37.5 points per game, been outgained in each game, and given up 500 yards on defense 2 of the last 3? They also lost to Southern Illinois (I-AA) and UConn, while eeking out a win v. Ball State by 1.You look at the statistics and there is not a single redeeming fact to support this team. 87th in rushing offense, 45th in passing, 72nd in total, 48th in scoring. On defense, it gets worse: 102nd v. the run, 84th v. the pass, 97th overall, and 97th in scoring defense. They are 110th in offensive 3rd down conversions, and their defense is 71st, allowing opponents to convert 39% of the time. They are 91st in Time of Possession, 94th in sacks and 62nd in sacks allowed.
My conclusion? Indiana must have had some big plays against bad teams. Illinois is bad. Iowa is not supposed to be bad, but I read where the Hawkeyes were missing 7 or 8 players due to injury. So, the Hoosiers are an illusion. Ohio State lost to Indiana in the 'Shoe in Earle's last year, 1987. You would have to go back another 36 years years to find another loss to the Hoosiers in Columbus, and that was Woody's first year. We are not due to lose to these guys until 2023.
So, the question becomes will the Buckeyes cover? The spread is 30.5, which with today's new faster paced games, may be hard to achieve. But I just found a stat that says "all-time, Ohio State has held Indiana to 9.9 pts/game average." That is mighty impressive. I am not worried about the Buckeyes overlooking Indiana for 2 reasons: (1) For unknown reasons, several of the computers have us at No. 3 behind USC and scUM; and (2) I read a quote in the Plain Dealer a few weeks back from one of the seniors talking about how Troy Smith and the other seniors relish playing in the Shoe. These guys realize their careers at OSU are ending and they want to make every home game special.
I think that with Indiana's pourous run defense, we will see a steady diet of Pittman (if healthy), C. Wells and M. Wells. That will make the game go fast. But, because I am not convinced that Pittman is 100%, or that Mo Wells can get more than 1.3 yards per carry, and that Ginn and Gonzo will be telling Troy Smith to throw them the ball because they are open on every play, I think we hit 40 (finally!). With Indiana's historical average, even I can do the math:
MTB says:
Indiana 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 14 14 0 14 - 42
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Bonus Prediction - Michigan at Penn State
Michigan at Penn State - I'm calling it, making it a lock that it WON'T happen, but here goes anyway:
No one can run on Michigan (No. 1 at 40 yds/game), but no one can run on Penn State, either (No. 14 at 75 yds/game). Both teams give up significant passing yardage because teams cannot run against them. Morelli gets maligned as Penn State's QB, but Henne has thrown almost as many picks as Morelli in 60 fewer attempts. Morelli's thrown 5 in 184 attempts, Henne 4 in 122. Henne's efficiency numbers are better because he throws bombs to Mario Manningham. But Manningham ain't playing, is he? The loss of Manningham means Henne loses half of his passing yardage, 75% of his TD throws, and 40% of Michigan's total scoring.
The absence of Manningham will force Carr to try and grind up yardage (and clock time) on the ground. Michigan is No. 17 in rushing offense at 195 yards per game. However, with the complete absence of a deep threat, Penn State's already stingy defense will be able to put 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop the run. When PSU has the ball, their rushing offense is No. 20 at 191 yards per game going against the No. 1 rushing defense. But Penn State has the speedy wideouts that the Wolverines lack.
Saturday night in Happy Valley. That place will be rocking. Michigan will not score early and often as they did in ND to take the crowd out. And PSU is a different team at home than on the road, winning by an average score of 34-8.
An undefeated Mich - OSU game goes down the drain with Llllloyd:
Penn State 13, Michigan 10
No one can run on Michigan (No. 1 at 40 yds/game), but no one can run on Penn State, either (No. 14 at 75 yds/game). Both teams give up significant passing yardage because teams cannot run against them. Morelli gets maligned as Penn State's QB, but Henne has thrown almost as many picks as Morelli in 60 fewer attempts. Morelli's thrown 5 in 184 attempts, Henne 4 in 122. Henne's efficiency numbers are better because he throws bombs to Mario Manningham. But Manningham ain't playing, is he? The loss of Manningham means Henne loses half of his passing yardage, 75% of his TD throws, and 40% of Michigan's total scoring.
The absence of Manningham will force Carr to try and grind up yardage (and clock time) on the ground. Michigan is No. 17 in rushing offense at 195 yards per game. However, with the complete absence of a deep threat, Penn State's already stingy defense will be able to put 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop the run. When PSU has the ball, their rushing offense is No. 20 at 191 yards per game going against the No. 1 rushing defense. But Penn State has the speedy wideouts that the Wolverines lack.
Saturday night in Happy Valley. That place will be rocking. Michigan will not score early and often as they did in ND to take the crowd out. And PSU is a different team at home than on the road, winning by an average score of 34-8.
An undefeated Mich - OSU game goes down the drain with Llllloyd:
Penn State 13, Michigan 10
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Michigan State
This is a dangerous team - in theory. History tells us so. In 1972, the No. 5 Buckeyes lost to an unranked MSU team in East Lansing, 19-12. In 1974, Ohio State was No. 1 and fell again to an unranked Spartan team 16-13 (with the controversial goal line score/no score as time ran out). And, of course, Ohio State was No. 1 in 1998 when the once-again unranked Spartans came to Columbus, rallied from 24-9 down to win 28-24. Most, if not all, Buckeye fans recall those bitter losses.
But, then again, Ohio State was No. 1 when it faced Mich. State in 1969, 1970 and 1973, and the Buckeyes won all 3 of those games - with the 1970 win a 29-0 shutout in East Lansing. Since 1975, the Buckeyes are 8-2 at MSU, and those two losses can be explained. 1988 was Cooper's first year and his team was horrible. 1999 was the year our team imploded (instead of theirs) on its way to a 6-6 finish.
The winner of this matchup has won by 10+ points in 10 of the last 12 contests. Yet, even some of those were close. OSU trailed MSU 28-24 with 5 minutes remaining last year, and in 2004 Ohio State trailed 19-17 when Ted Ginn's big run after the catch put OSU in front with 3 minutes to go.
Ohio State is a 15 point favorite this year. I cannot find any year in which OSU has been a double digit favorite at MSU. Three times OSU was a double digit favorite in Columbus and failed to cover each time.
The history with MSU scared me so much that I needed to settle down with some cold hard facts. First, MSU is playing without their leading rusher (Javon Ringer - injury) and their best receiver (Trannon). Next, while the offensive statistics between the two are similar, MSU is 86th in scoring defense, while Ohio State is now 1st. Another huge area is offense and defensive lines. While MSU can open holes for their running game, they are only average in pass protection, ranking 64th in sacks allowed. On the other side, their defensive line cannot get close to the QB. MSU ranks 104th in sacks, and 108th in tackles for loss. OSU's defense is 9th in the nation in sacks and 7th in tackles for loss.
If Ohio State gets up early and forces MSU to pass, this could be a blowout. Pitcock, Laurinitis, et al. will spend all day getting to know Drew Stanton. However, if the game is close and MSU can pound away with their cannon ball second string RB (Caulcrick) they could keep it close. I'm not sure if the MSU crowd will bother to show up, let alone be into the game. I think MSU is too undermanned to hang with the Buckeyes, and I am not impressed with John L. Smith as a strategist or gameday coach. I think Tressel will remind the Bucks of our history with MSU and come up with a strategy to make sure the ghosts of '72, '74 and '98 do not repeat themselves here.
MTB says:
Ohio State 7 10 10 7 - 34
Mich. State 0 7 7 3 - 17
But, then again, Ohio State was No. 1 when it faced Mich. State in 1969, 1970 and 1973, and the Buckeyes won all 3 of those games - with the 1970 win a 29-0 shutout in East Lansing. Since 1975, the Buckeyes are 8-2 at MSU, and those two losses can be explained. 1988 was Cooper's first year and his team was horrible. 1999 was the year our team imploded (instead of theirs) on its way to a 6-6 finish.
The winner of this matchup has won by 10+ points in 10 of the last 12 contests. Yet, even some of those were close. OSU trailed MSU 28-24 with 5 minutes remaining last year, and in 2004 Ohio State trailed 19-17 when Ted Ginn's big run after the catch put OSU in front with 3 minutes to go.
Ohio State is a 15 point favorite this year. I cannot find any year in which OSU has been a double digit favorite at MSU. Three times OSU was a double digit favorite in Columbus and failed to cover each time.
The history with MSU scared me so much that I needed to settle down with some cold hard facts. First, MSU is playing without their leading rusher (Javon Ringer - injury) and their best receiver (Trannon). Next, while the offensive statistics between the two are similar, MSU is 86th in scoring defense, while Ohio State is now 1st. Another huge area is offense and defensive lines. While MSU can open holes for their running game, they are only average in pass protection, ranking 64th in sacks allowed. On the other side, their defensive line cannot get close to the QB. MSU ranks 104th in sacks, and 108th in tackles for loss. OSU's defense is 9th in the nation in sacks and 7th in tackles for loss.
If Ohio State gets up early and forces MSU to pass, this could be a blowout. Pitcock, Laurinitis, et al. will spend all day getting to know Drew Stanton. However, if the game is close and MSU can pound away with their cannon ball second string RB (Caulcrick) they could keep it close. I'm not sure if the MSU crowd will bother to show up, let alone be into the game. I think MSU is too undermanned to hang with the Buckeyes, and I am not impressed with John L. Smith as a strategist or gameday coach. I think Tressel will remind the Bucks of our history with MSU and come up with a strategy to make sure the ghosts of '72, '74 and '98 do not repeat themselves here.
MTB says:
Ohio State 7 10 10 7 - 34
Mich. State 0 7 7 3 - 17
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Bowling Green
Going to go out on a limb and say the Buckeyes win Saturday. The next question is by how much?
While the Buckeyes are 11-0 v. the MAC since 1992 (Tressel is now 6-0), Ohio State is only 4-7 ATS (Tressel 3-3 ATS). That record will be difficult to improve upon especially with the line at 34.5.
The Buckeyes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when favored by 30 or more. Tressel is only 1-1 having beaten Illinois last year 40-2 when the Buckeyes were giving 34. The year before, Ohio State was favored over San Diego State by 30.5, but won a squeaker 16-13. Meanwhile, BG is 2-2 ATS when they are getting 30+ points. They were getting 39 from OSU in 1997 and while the Bucks won 44-13, the Falcons still covered the spread.
Statistically, these two teams have similar yardage averages on offense and defense. Ohio State is 34th in total offense (386 yds/game), BG is 52nd (362 yds/game). Buckeyes are 37th in total defense (293 yds/game), while the Falcons are 41st (299 yds/game). The key is scoring. Here the Buckeyes have a big advantage. Ohio State averages 32.4 pts/game v. BG's 23.8. Defensively, Ohio State gives up only 9.8/game, good for No. 5 in the country, while the Falcons clock in at No. 101 giving up 30.0 pts/game. And Bowling Green has given up those points to Wisconsin, Buffalo, Florida International, Kent State and Ohio U. None of these teams are offensive powerhouses as they rank 37th, 96th, 106th, 78th and 98th respectively. In fact, only Wisconsin comes close to averaging the Buckeyes weekly output.
Final factors - BG has a sophomore QB backed up by 2 redshirt freshmen.
This should (hopefully) be over with quickly. The fact that BG gives up the same amount of yards as we do but 3x as many points makes me think their offense turns the ball over and/or their punting game stinks and the opponents have a short field with which to work. Either way, our offense should go through them easily. An issue will be when does Tressel bench the starters and give the 2nd and 3rd stringers a chance. That may impact the final, but I think the Buckeyes cover the huge spread.
MTB says:
Bowling Green 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 14 17 14 3 - 48
While the Buckeyes are 11-0 v. the MAC since 1992 (Tressel is now 6-0), Ohio State is only 4-7 ATS (Tressel 3-3 ATS). That record will be difficult to improve upon especially with the line at 34.5.
The Buckeyes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when favored by 30 or more. Tressel is only 1-1 having beaten Illinois last year 40-2 when the Buckeyes were giving 34. The year before, Ohio State was favored over San Diego State by 30.5, but won a squeaker 16-13. Meanwhile, BG is 2-2 ATS when they are getting 30+ points. They were getting 39 from OSU in 1997 and while the Bucks won 44-13, the Falcons still covered the spread.
Statistically, these two teams have similar yardage averages on offense and defense. Ohio State is 34th in total offense (386 yds/game), BG is 52nd (362 yds/game). Buckeyes are 37th in total defense (293 yds/game), while the Falcons are 41st (299 yds/game). The key is scoring. Here the Buckeyes have a big advantage. Ohio State averages 32.4 pts/game v. BG's 23.8. Defensively, Ohio State gives up only 9.8/game, good for No. 5 in the country, while the Falcons clock in at No. 101 giving up 30.0 pts/game. And Bowling Green has given up those points to Wisconsin, Buffalo, Florida International, Kent State and Ohio U. None of these teams are offensive powerhouses as they rank 37th, 96th, 106th, 78th and 98th respectively. In fact, only Wisconsin comes close to averaging the Buckeyes weekly output.
Final factors - BG has a sophomore QB backed up by 2 redshirt freshmen.
This should (hopefully) be over with quickly. The fact that BG gives up the same amount of yards as we do but 3x as many points makes me think their offense turns the ball over and/or their punting game stinks and the opponents have a short field with which to work. Either way, our offense should go through them easily. An issue will be when does Tressel bench the starters and give the 2nd and 3rd stringers a chance. That may impact the final, but I think the Buckeyes cover the huge spread.
MTB says:
Bowling Green 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 14 17 14 3 - 48
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