Indiana

This is a few days late because I actually took a friend's advice and did some work - for my job, that is. I don't know if the extra time helped with my analysis of the Indiana team, though.

My chief question - how is this team 4-3? Their last 3 games, they've given up an average of 37.5 points per game, been outgained in each game, and given up 500 yards on defense 2 of the last 3? They also lost to Southern Illinois (I-AA) and UConn, while eeking out a win v. Ball State by 1.You look at the statistics and there is not a single redeeming fact to support this team. 87th in rushing offense, 45th in passing, 72nd in total, 48th in scoring. On defense, it gets worse: 102nd v. the run, 84th v. the pass, 97th overall, and 97th in scoring defense. They are 110th in offensive 3rd down conversions, and their defense is 71st, allowing opponents to convert 39% of the time. They are 91st in Time of Possession, 94th in sacks and 62nd in sacks allowed.

My conclusion? Indiana must have had some big plays against bad teams. Illinois is bad. Iowa is not supposed to be bad, but I read where the Hawkeyes were missing 7 or 8 players due to injury. So, the Hoosiers are an illusion. Ohio State lost to Indiana in the 'Shoe in Earle's last year, 1987. You would have to go back another 36 years years to find another loss to the Hoosiers in Columbus, and that was Woody's first year. We are not due to lose to these guys until 2023.

So, the question becomes will the Buckeyes cover? The spread is 30.5, which with today's new faster paced games, may be hard to achieve. But I just found a stat that says "all-time, Ohio State has held Indiana to 9.9 pts/game average." That is mighty impressive. I am not worried about the Buckeyes overlooking Indiana for 2 reasons: (1) For unknown reasons, several of the computers have us at No. 3 behind USC and scUM; and (2) I read a quote in the Plain Dealer a few weeks back from one of the seniors talking about how Troy Smith and the other seniors relish playing in the Shoe. These guys realize their careers at OSU are ending and they want to make every home game special.

I think that with Indiana's pourous run defense, we will see a steady diet of Pittman (if healthy), C. Wells and M. Wells. That will make the game go fast. But, because I am not convinced that Pittman is 100%, or that Mo Wells can get more than 1.3 yards per carry, and that Ginn and Gonzo will be telling Troy Smith to throw them the ball because they are open on every play, I think we hit 40 (finally!). With Indiana's historical average, even I can do the math:

MTB says:

Indiana 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 14 14 0 14 - 42