Bowling Green

Going to go out on a limb and say the Buckeyes win Saturday. The next question is by how much?

While the Buckeyes are 11-0 v. the MAC since 1992 (Tressel is now 6-0), Ohio State is only 4-7 ATS (Tressel 3-3 ATS). That record will be difficult to improve upon especially with the line at 34.5.

The Buckeyes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when favored by 30 or more. Tressel is only 1-1 having beaten Illinois last year 40-2 when the Buckeyes were giving 34. The year before, Ohio State was favored over San Diego State by 30.5, but won a squeaker 16-13. Meanwhile, BG is 2-2 ATS when they are getting 30+ points. They were getting 39 from OSU in 1997 and while the Bucks won 44-13, the Falcons still covered the spread.

Statistically, these two teams have similar yardage averages on offense and defense. Ohio State is 34th in total offense (386 yds/game), BG is 52nd (362 yds/game). Buckeyes are 37th in total defense (293 yds/game), while the Falcons are 41st (299 yds/game). The key is scoring. Here the Buckeyes have a big advantage. Ohio State averages 32.4 pts/game v. BG's 23.8. Defensively, Ohio State gives up only 9.8/game, good for No. 5 in the country, while the Falcons clock in at No. 101 giving up 30.0 pts/game. And Bowling Green has given up those points to Wisconsin, Buffalo, Florida International, Kent State and Ohio U. None of these teams are offensive powerhouses as they rank 37th, 96th, 106th, 78th and 98th respectively. In fact, only Wisconsin comes close to averaging the Buckeyes weekly output.

Final factors - BG has a sophomore QB backed up by 2 redshirt freshmen.

This should (hopefully) be over with quickly. The fact that BG gives up the same amount of yards as we do but 3x as many points makes me think their offense turns the ball over and/or their punting game stinks and the opponents have a short field with which to work. Either way, our offense should go through them easily. An issue will be when does Tressel bench the starters and give the 2nd and 3rd stringers a chance. That may impact the final, but I think the Buckeyes cover the huge spread.

MTB says:

Bowling Green 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 14 17 14 3 - 48