Michigan State

This is a dangerous team - in theory. History tells us so. In 1972, the No. 5 Buckeyes lost to an unranked MSU team in East Lansing, 19-12. In 1974, Ohio State was No. 1 and fell again to an unranked Spartan team 16-13 (with the controversial goal line score/no score as time ran out). And, of course, Ohio State was No. 1 in 1998 when the once-again unranked Spartans came to Columbus, rallied from 24-9 down to win 28-24. Most, if not all, Buckeye fans recall those bitter losses.

But, then again, Ohio State was No. 1 when it faced Mich. State in 1969, 1970 and 1973, and the Buckeyes won all 3 of those games - with the 1970 win a 29-0 shutout in East Lansing. Since 1975, the Buckeyes are 8-2 at MSU, and those two losses can be explained. 1988 was Cooper's first year and his team was horrible. 1999 was the year our team imploded (instead of theirs) on its way to a 6-6 finish.

The winner of this matchup has won by 10+ points in 10 of the last 12 contests. Yet, even some of those were close. OSU trailed MSU 28-24 with 5 minutes remaining last year, and in 2004 Ohio State trailed 19-17 when Ted Ginn's big run after the catch put OSU in front with 3 minutes to go.

Ohio State is a 15 point favorite this year. I cannot find any year in which OSU has been a double digit favorite at MSU. Three times OSU was a double digit favorite in Columbus and failed to cover each time.

The history with MSU scared me so much that I needed to settle down with some cold hard facts. First, MSU is playing without their leading rusher (Javon Ringer - injury) and their best receiver (Trannon). Next, while the offensive statistics between the two are similar, MSU is 86th in scoring defense, while Ohio State is now 1st. Another huge area is offense and defensive lines. While MSU can open holes for their running game, they are only average in pass protection, ranking 64th in sacks allowed. On the other side, their defensive line cannot get close to the QB. MSU ranks 104th in sacks, and 108th in tackles for loss. OSU's defense is 9th in the nation in sacks and 7th in tackles for loss.

If Ohio State gets up early and forces MSU to pass, this could be a blowout. Pitcock, Laurinitis, et al. will spend all day getting to know Drew Stanton. However, if the game is close and MSU can pound away with their cannon ball second string RB (Caulcrick) they could keep it close. I'm not sure if the MSU crowd will bother to show up, let alone be into the game. I think MSU is too undermanned to hang with the Buckeyes, and I am not impressed with John L. Smith as a strategist or gameday coach. I think Tressel will remind the Bucks of our history with MSU and come up with a strategy to make sure the ghosts of '72, '74 and '98 do not repeat themselves here.

MTB says:

Ohio State 7 10 10 7 - 34
Mich. State 0 7 7 3 - 17