Illinois

Here it comes. This is the game that we haven't seen all year - well, with the exceptions of the first of half of Cincinnati and the first 3 quarters of Penn State. What I mean is that this is the game where the heavy favorite struggles against an inferior team and puts some doubts in the minds of Buckeye fans as to whether we are "the team" this year.

Now, before you get all worked up, let me assure you that Ohio State will win. Also, you will be thankful that this performance occurs this Saturday instead of November 18. But there is something in the statistics as well as a feeling I have that this will not be Indiana/Minnesota, Part 3.

Illinois runs the ball better than we do (21st v. 22nd). Okay, it's not much, but it's still good. Their passing is suspect (60 yards less per game than us), but they can move the ball. Their trouble is that they can't put it in the endzone or through the uprights. Illinois is 89th in scoring at 19.78/game. And part of the problem is that they are 116th in turnover margin and are (-11) for the year. So, they move the ball and then decide they are tired of having it.

That puts their defense at a disadvantage, who probably have to defend a short field frequently, and subsequently their defense is 87th in scoring giving up 26.11/game. Looking at the rest of the stats, their defense is not bad. 53rd in rushing, 37th in passing and 39th in total defense. Maybe it's because the other teams don't have to move it very far, but I don't think that is the entire story. Illinois is poor in time of possession, so the Illini defense is out their a lot. To have these half-decent stats after being out on the field more than the opposition says something. One last stat is that Illinois plays low scoring games. They are 2-5 in the over/under meaning they underachieve when it comes to the total points Vegas says both teams will score.

Yes, this is Illinois team that is 1-4 at home and lost to Syracuse and Ohio U. in Champaign. They are also 2-8 in their last 10 November games. But this is where the feeling comes in. Illinois is 10-11straight up v. the Bucks in the last 21. They are 16-5 ATS in those games. The Buckeyes have won the last 6 in Champaign, but 4 of those were by 8 or less, and one was in overtime (you may remember that one). In each of those 6 Illinois was not ranked and they had losing in records in 5 of those 6, so it's not like the Buckeyes were battling good Illini teams. We have struggled against poor Illini teams.

There is every reason to believe that 2006 will be just like 1998 and 1996. OSU was undefeated in those years, Illinois was sub-.500, and OSU was 30 point favorites in both and covered 41-0 and 48-0. But I think this is the game where our third down pass gets batted down, dropped, or the receiver slips. Where we miss the blocking assignment or we get the hold that puts us back. Where the opposition's punt takes the crazy bounce and goes 70 yards. The game where Pittman and Wells put 3 on the ground. I think this is going to be a very frustrating day for the Buckeyes and their fans.
Take Illinois plus 26.5, and bet the under (48). But just remember, you'll be glad this game happened now and not in 2 weeks.

MTB says:

Ohio State 3 7 7 10 - 27
Illinois 3 6 0 6 - 15